Sunday, October 11, 2015

Reviewing the weekend and the national team picture

Quick notes about results from the past weekend:

If there was any doubt that might have been lingering after the VVS Invitational results came out a few weeks ago, this weekend should have eliminated any question about who the #1 girls team in the nation is. Fayetteville-Manlius NY destroyed the field at the Manhattan Invitational, averaging 14:36.86 over the 4k course. "How good is that?" you might ask... well, that is an average of 2 seconds per runner faster than the 2004 Saratoga Springs NY squad (14:38.8 average) that some claim is the best team ever, and only 1.5 seconds slower than the 2009 Fayetteville-Manlius NY girls (14:35.44). Manhattan is a race that is extremely well tested, with all but one NTN/NXN Champion team having run on the course and many other NTN/NXN qualifiers to test it as well. Only seven other teams have averaged under 14:50 per runner on the course, and every single one of them won the NTN/NXN title that year.


The #2 girls team in the nation, Great Oak CA, also ran well last weekend as they scored 34 points to beat Arcadia CA (100) and Southlake Carroll TX (132) among others at the Clovis Invitational. Their time at the meet stacks up well, putting them at #5 on the All-Time Woodward Park list and only about half a minute (total team time, not team average) behind where they were when they set the course record at this meet last year.


The question still remains: who is the third best girls team in the nation? We've seen a very strong duo up front, but what about the rest of the nation?

Sunset OR still seems to be somewhere up there, having lost only to Great Oak CA while beating multiple US Top-25 caliber teams at Woodbridge and Nike Pre-Nationals already this year. They scorched the course at an always-fast (and probably short?) 5k at the Sandelie Golf Course, but is notable that they averaged within a minute of one of the best individual athletes in the nation in Ella Donaghu (17:55.0 vs. 16:59.6) and their #5 keeping within 80.4 seconds of a runner of that caliber is very impressive (for example, 80 seconds behind the #10 finisher at last year's NXN race, Ella Donaghu, was the 41st team scorer). I'm not sure they are US#3, but they definitely seem to be in the running for US Top-5.


The picture on the guys side is a bit more wide open, as many of the top teams haven't really faced off against eachother yet. What we do know is that:

-Sandburg IL is tearing it up in Illinois
-Lafayette MO is tearing it up in Missouri/Arkansas/Tennessee
-American Fork UT hasn't been healthy enough to continue their annual course record setting efforts in Utah
-Timpanogos UT came out on top of the biggest meet of the season to date, the Bob Firman Invitational, over Great Oak CA and several of the best from California and the Northwest
-Hopkins MN looks like the top team in the Heartland
-St. Ignatius OH has looked mighty impressive in Ohio
-and Downingtown West PA might be the best team in the Northeast after their win at Manhattan, though don't look like a potential US Top 5 team quite yet

What that all means, I have no idea.

Monday, October 5, 2015

Quick/Rough NW Team Rankings

Here's a quick take on what the Northwest Team rankings might be. This is not nearly as in-depth as my usual rankings, so it's just a quick look at (essentially) the best team performances from each team over the last few weeks. Also included is the results for each team from the last three weeks.

I expect these rankings would be different after results from the next couple week are tallied, but it seems that Washington is off to a slow start compared to the rest of the region (which is fine, as what happens in November is the real test for teams of this caliber).



Northwest Boys 19-Sep 26-Sep 3-Oct
 1. Mountain View ID 1st Mountain Home ID 2nd Nike Portland OR OFF
 2. Summit OR 1st Oregon City OR 3rd Nike Portland OR 1st Oxford OR
 3. Crater OR OFF 7th Bob Firman ID 1st State of Jefferson OR
 4. Bozeman MT 1st Mountain West MT 8th Bob Firman ID OFF
 5. North Central WA OFF 9th Bob Firman ID OFF
 6. Tahoma WA 1st Ft. Steilacoom WA 10th Bob Firman ID 1st Sunfair WA
 7. Jesuit OR OFF 5th Nike Portland OR OFF
 8. Eisenhower WA 3rd Ft. Steilacoom WA 1st Bellevue WA 5th Sunfair WA
 9. Rocky Mountain ID OFF 6th Nike Portland OR 1st Gary Ward ID
10. Lincoln OR OFF 7th Nike Portland OR 2nd Sunfair WA

Honorable Mention: Arlington WA, Eastlake WA, Inglemoor WA, Interlake WA, Issaquah WA, Laramie WY, Sehome WA, Shelley ID



Northwest Girls 19-Sep 26-Sep 3-Oct
 1. Sunset OR 2nd Woodbridge CA 1st Nike Portland OR OFF
 2. Camas WA 1st Seaside OR 3rd Nike Portland OR 1st Harrier Classic OR
 3. Bozeman MT 1st Mountain West MT 4th Bob Firman ID OFF
 4. Mountain View ID 1st Mountain Home ID 4th Nike Portland OR OFF
 5. Jesuit OR OFF 5th Nike Portland OR OFF
 6. Billings Senior MT 2nd Mountain West MT 1st Great Falls MT 1st Butte MT
 7. Sheldon OR OFF 1st Northwest Classic OR 1st Oxford OR
 8. Summit OR 1st Oregon City OR 8th Nike Portland OR 2nd Oxford OR
 9. Hellgate MT 3rd Mountain West MT 2nd Great Falls MT OFF
10. Ballard WA OFF 1st Bellevue WA 1st Curtis WA

Honorable Mention: Boise ID, Eagle ID, Grant OR, Kenai Central AK, Mount Si WA, Mount Spokane WA, Rocky Mountain ID


Note: Alaska's 4A Boys Champion, West Anchorage, might belong on the Honorable Mention list as well... hard to say, but my initial guess is they are close but not quite there. We will get a better read this weekend as they travel down to the George Fox Classic in Oregon.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Top Girls Ratings from NW Meets through Sep. 19

Here’s a list of the Top 25 Girls Ratings from Northwest meets so far. Note that all ratings are preliminary.

 

143.4 - Ella Donaghu - 12 - Grant - Sundodger WA #1

143.1 - Annie Hill - 10 - Glacier - Mountain West MT #1

137.7 - Christina Aragon - 12 - Billings Senior - Mountain West MT #2

135.9 - Taylor Roe - 9 - Kamiak - Sehome WA #1

133.8 - Ember Stratton - 9 - Sunset - Night Meet OR #1

133.1 - Piper Meuwissen - 11 - Bozeman - Mountain West MT #3

132.8 - Malia Pivec - 11 - Lynnwood - South Whidbey WA #1

129.6 - Christina Sevsek - 11 - South Fraser (BC) - Sundodger WA #2

129.5 - Olivia Brooks - 11 - Summit - Ash Creek OR #1

128.8 - Marissa Dobry - 12 - St Mary's - Ash Creek OR #2

127.7 - Tiahna Vladic - 9 - Billings Senior - Mountain West MT #4

127.4 - Marissa Dobry - 12 - St Mary's - Prefontaine OR #1

126.9 - Mariah Castillo - 10 - Saugus - Sundodger WA #3

126.4 - Eve Jensen - 9 - Boise - Sundodger WA #4

126.0 - Julie Sevsek - 11 - South Fraser (BC) - Sundodger WA #5

123.9 - Bryn Morley - 10 - Bigfork - Mountain West MT #5

123.6 - Elizabeth Rinck - 9 - Jesuit - Tracy Walters WA #1

123.2 - Anna Chau - 9 - South Salem - Night Meet OR #2

122.6 - Taylor Roe - 9 - Kamiak - Ft. Steilacoom WA #1

121.8 - Erin Mullins - 11 - Cascade-Leavenworth - Ellensburg WA #1

121.1 - Anna Chau - 9 - South Salem - Saxon OR #1

120.8 - Ella Degrandpre - 9 - Hellgate - Mountain West MT #6

120.6 - Emma Jenkins - 10 - Camas - Ash Creek OR #3

120.4 - Audrey Rustad - 12 - Boise - Sundodger WA #6

119.3 - Rachel Blair - 9 - Camas - Ash Creek OR #4

Top Boys Ratings from NW Meets through Sep. 19

Here’s a list of the Top 25 Boys Ratings from Northwest meets so far. Note that all ratings are preliminary.

 

186.0 - Brody Smith - 12 - Cody - Mountain West MT #1

186.0 - Justin Janke - 12 - North Central - Tracy Walters WA #1

184.4 - Ahmed Muhumed - 11 - West Salem - Marist OR #1

184.2 - Nathan Beamer - 12 - Arlington - South Whidbey WA #1

184.0 - Roman Ollar - 12 - West Linn - Night Meet OR #1

183.2 - Jackson Mestler - 12 - Sheldon - Ash Creek OR #1

182.7 - Marshall Beatty - 11 - Sentinel - Mountain West MT #2

182.5 - Graeme Schroeder - 12 - Tahoma - Ft. Steilacoom WA #1

182.4 - James Mwaura - 10 - Lincoln - Bellarmine WA #1

182.3 - Yacine Guermali - 11 - Camas - Ash Creek OR #2

181.7 - Jackson Mestler - 12 - Sheldon - Marist OR #2

181.4 - Joshua Schumacher - 10 - Jesuit - Tracy Walters WA #2

181.4 - Phillip Fishburn - 12 - Kamiakin - Tracy Walters WA #3

180.9 - Luke Schilter - 11 - NW Christian-Lacey - Ft. Steilacoom WA #2

180.7 - Murimi Nyamu - 12 - Forest Grove - Night Meet OR #2

180.1 - Grayson Ollar - 12 - West Linn - Night Meet OR #3

180.1 - Dylan Holland - 12 - Anacortes - South Whidbey WA #2

180.0 - Mason Wegener - 12 - South Eugene - Marist OR #3

179.6 - Fabian Cardenas - 12 - Umatilla - Ultimook OR #1

179.5 - Kennan Schrag - 12 - Issaquah - Capital WA #1

179.4 - Luis Torres - 12 - Aloha - Bellarmine WA #2

179.2 - James Mwaura - 10 - Lincoln - Ft. Steilacoom WA #3

179.1 - Cameron Carroll - 12 - Central Kitsap - Ft. Steilacoom WA #4

178.8 - Luke Schilter - 11 - NW Christian-Lacey - Capital WA #2

178.8 - Nathan Beamer - 12 - Arlington - Sehome WA #1

Top Girls Ratings from CA Meets through Sep. 19

Here’s a list of the Top 25 Girls Ratings from California meets so far. Note that all ratings are preliminary.

 

155.0 - Fiona O'Keeffe - 12 - Davis - De La Salle/Carondelet CIF-NC #1

148.7 - Cate Ratliff - 12 - Santa Cruz - Earlybird CIF-CC #1

137.2 - Chloe Hansel - 12 - Las Lomas - Farmer CIF-NC #1

136.7 - Allison Chipman - 10 - Mountain Vista - Woodbridge CIF-SS #1

136.0 - Megan McCandless - 12 - Granada - De La Salle/Carondelet CIF-NC #2

134.7 - Fiona O'Keeffe - 12 - Davis - Jesuit/Davis CIF-SJ #1

134.3 - Amanda Gehrich - 12 - Tesoro - Woodbridge CIF-SS #2

134.1 - Ember Stratton - 9 - Sunset - Woodbridge CIF-SS #3

130.4 - Marea Zlatunich - 10 - Aptos - Earlybird CIF-CC #2

130.4 - Gillian Meeks - 12 - Henry M. Gunn - Earlybird CIF-CC #3

130.2 - Brooke Starn - 12 - Monte Vista - De La Salle/Carondelet CIF-NC #3

129.8 - Sofia Castiglioni - 11 - Davis - De La Salle/Carondelet CIF-NC #4

129.5 - Baylee Jones - 11 - Desert Vista - Cool Breeze CIF-SS #1

129.1 - Kristen Leung - 12 - Lowell - De La Salle/Carondelet CIF-NC #5

128.8 - Mikayla Sodersten - 12 - Clovis - Sanger CIF-CS #1

128.7 - Mari Friedman - 10 - Santa Cruz - Earlybird CIF-CC #4

128.4 - Evelyn Mandel - 11 - Great Oak - Cool Breeze CIF-SS #2

128.0 - Evelyn Mandel - 11 - Great Oak - Woodbridge CIF-SS #4

128.0 - Nikki Zielinski - 12 - Canyon (Anaheim) - Woodbridge CIF-SS #5

128.0 - Laura Moran - 11 - Mt Carmel - Mt. Carmel Girls CIF-SD #1

127.7 - Kristen Leung - 12 - Lowell - Lowell CIF-CC #1

127.2 - Baylee Jones - 11 - Desert Vista - Woodbridge CIF-SS #6

127.1 - Nicole Griffiths - 12 - Sunset - Woodbridge CIF-SS #7

126.9 - Julia Lemak - 12 - Archbishop Mitty - Chieftain-Spirit CIF-CC #1

126.9 - Michelle Magnani - 12 - Moorpark - Woodbridge CIF-SS #8