Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Washington 4A State Projections

Here are the 4A Washington State Projections, which are based on best results from ALL INVITATIONALS and LEAGUE/DISTRICT/REGIONAL MEETS. Times are set to Sun Willows standard.

 

Boys Top 60 Individuals –

1.       14:48.70 - Andrew Gardner - 12 - Mead - 199.8

2.       15:07.88 - Sumner Goodwin - 12 - Lewis and Clark - 193.3

3.       15:09.12 - Wolfgang Beck - 11 - Gig Harbor - 192.9

4.       15:22.32 - Colby Gilbert - 12 - Skyview - 188.4

5.       15:22.81 - Mark Tedder - 12 - Battle Ground - 188.2

6.       15:25.71 - Logan Carroll - 11 - Gig Harbor - 187.3

7.       15:32.36 - Aaron Roe - 10 - Henry Jackson - 185.0

8.       15:32.93 - Keegan Symmes - 12 - Skyline - 184.8

9.       15:33.58 - Jamie Coughlin - 12 - Garfield - 184.6

10.   15:36.82 - Sean Newcomb - 12 - Walla Walla - 183.5

11.   15:38.43 - Logan Giese - 12 - Central Valley - 183.0

12.   15:40.73 - Peter Kesting - 10 - Olympia - 182.2

13.   15:41.27 - Cameron Stanish - 11 - Garfield - 182.0

14.   15:44.04 - Michael Mendenhall - 12 - Inglemoor - 181.1

15.   15:46.61 - Drew Schreiber - 11 - Eisenhower - 180.2

16.   15:46.82 - Adam Houston - 11 - Roosevelt - 180.1

17.   15:47.29 - Travis Thorne - 12 - Joel Ferris - 180.0

18.   15:48.62 - Jadon Olson - 11 - Henry Jackson - 179.5

19.   15:49.13 - Kyler Goins - 12 - Lewis and Clark - 179.3

20.   15:49.65 - Riley Campbell - 11 - Tahoma - 179.2

21.   15:50.37 - Mason Fletcher - 12 - Puyallup - 178.9

22.   15:50.50 - Spencer Jensen - 10 - Central Valley - 178.9

23.   15:52.63 - Nate Van Haitsma - 12 - Olympia - 178.2

24.   15:53.25 - Tristan Peloquin - 10 - Gig Harbor - 178.0

25.   15:54.01 - James Dagley - 12 - Tahoma - 177.7

26.   15:54.13 - Jack Griffing - 12 - Edmonds-Woodway - 177.7

27.   15:54.98 - Delfino Dominguez - 12 - Eisenhower - 177.4

28.   15:55.74 - Michael Williams - 11 - Richland - 177.1

29.   15:57.15 - Ben Wolpert - 11 - Walla Walla - 176.6

30.   15:58.72 - Cole Christman - 10 - Wenatchee - 176.1

31.   15:59.06 - Peter Helman - 11 - Joel Ferris - 176.0

32.   15:59.17 - Alexander Martinez - 12 - Kentlake - 176.0

33.   16:00.64 - Dylan Hayes - 11 - Garfield - 175.5

34.   16:01.26 - Ryan Bradford - 12 - Kamiak - 175.2

35.   16:01.84 - Andrew Duffy - 12 - Camas - 175.1

36.   16:02.47 - Andrew Kaler - 12 - Camas - 174.8

37.   16:02.88 - Robin Cheema - 11 - Kentwood - 174.7

38.   16:03.36 - Corey Hunter - 11 - Central Valley - 174.5

39.   16:03.74 - Tomislav Smith - 12 - Kamiak - 174.4

40.   16:04.42 - Michael Ottesen - 12 - Puyallup - 174.2

41.   16:04.72 - Haftom Tafere - 11 - Todd Beamer - 174.1

42.   16:05.24 - Tyler Flannery - 12 - Auburn - 173.9

43.   16:07.62 - Davis Mathieu - 12 - Lewis and Clark - 173.1

44.   16:07.76 - Mason Nicol - 12 - Lake Stevens - 173.1

45.   16:07.89 - Wyatt Halverson - 12 - Olympia - 173.0

46.   16:09.01 - Jordan Oldenburg - 11 - Eastlake - 172.6

47.   16:10.76 - Austin Seely - 11 - Central Valley - 172.0

48.   16:10.78 - Scott Schmitt - 12 - Lake Stevens - 172.0

49.   16:10.96 - Tucker Boyd - 12 - Camas - 172.0

50.   16:11.34 - Matt Hommel - 11 - Central Valley - 171.8

51.   16:11.56 - Trevor Love - 12 - Auburn Riverside - 171.8

52.   16:11.68 - Jesus Medina - 11 - Eisenhower - 171.7

53.   16:11.78 - Alex Mitchell - 11 - Mt Vernon - 171.7

54.   16:11.84 - Colton Pegram - 10 - Central Valley - 171.7

55.   16:13.04 - Austin Jex - 10 - Todd Beamer - 171.3

56.   16:13.84 - Briton Demars - 10 - Central Valley - 171.0

57.   16:14.01 - Tristan Cunderla - 11 - Wenatchee - 170.9

58.   16:14.11 - Ben Gilvar-Parke - 10 - Olympia - 170.9

59.   16:14.87 - Jackson Peven - 12 - Lewis and Clark - 170.7

60.   16:15.46 - Brad Hodkinson - 10 - Snohomish - 170.5

 

Boys Teams –

1.       109 - Central Valley - 15:58.88

2.       144 - Gig Harbor - 15:56.44

3.       148 - Eisenhower - 16:06.81

4.       148 - Lewis and Clark - 16:01.88

5.       153 - Olympia - 16:08.08

6.       179 - Henry Jackson - 16:10.35

7.       182 - Tahoma - 16:13.12

8.       204 - Camas - 16:20.89

9.       209 - Garfield - 16:16.76

10.   210 - Kamiak - 16:20.42

11.   257 - Lake Stevens - 16:28.38

12.   258 - Eastlake - 16:28.66

13.   294 - Puyallup - 16:35.83

14.   329 - Kentwood - 16:42.89

15.   354 - Bellarmine Prep - 16:46.93

16.   377 - Curtis - 16:52.72

 

 

Girls Top 30 Individuals –

1.       17:02.66 - Alexa Efraimson - 10 - Camas - 154.5

2.       18:01.26 - Jordan McPhee - 11 - Mt Rainier - 134.7

3.       18:09.53 - Alexis Fuller - 10 - Union - 131.9

4.       18:09.60 - Lindsey Bradley - 10 - Richland - 131.9

5.       18:12.70 - Chandler Olson - 12 - Woodinville - 130.8

6.       18:14.46 - Gracie Ledwith - 11 - Lewis and Clark - 130.2

7.       18:16.65 - Sofia Kane - 11 - Olympia - 129.5

8.       18:23.56 - Kyra Burke - 12 - Inglemoor - 127.2

9.       18:26.02 - Rose Christen - 11 - Central Kitsap - 126.3

10.   18:27.05 - Alissa Pudlitzke - 10 - Camas - 126.0

11.   18:32.70 - Elizabeth Oosterhout - 12 - Tahoma - 124.1

12.   18:36.52 - Hannah Derby - 11 - Bellarmine Prep - 122.8

13.   18:36.76 - Daryl Phill - 12 - Bellarmine Prep - 122.7

14.   18:37.26 - Delaney Tiernan - 10 - Tahoma - 122.5

15.   18:38.15 - Maddie Woodson - 9 - Camas - 122.2

16.   18:43.36 - Olivia Mancl - 12 - Roosevelt - 120.5

17.   18:44.50 - Cassie McKinney - 9 - Union - 120.1

18.   18:47.48 - Lauren Perry - 11 - Richland - 119.1

19.   18:48.12 - Elise Tello - 11 - Eisenhower - 118.9

20.   18:48.67 - Brooke Kingma - 10 - Henry Jackson - 118.7

21.   18:50.05 - Megan Napier - 12 - Camas - 118.2

22.   18:50.78 - Lila Rice - 12 - Redmond - 118.0

23.   18:51.64 - Mikayla Pivec - 9 - Lynnwood - 117.7

24.   18:54.86 - Jessica Spray - 12 - Newport-Bellevue - 116.6

25.   18:59.12 - Amber Rose - 10 - Inglemoor - 115.2

26.   18:59.41 - Jessica Rawlins - 11 - Henry Jackson - 115.1

27.   19:03.15 - Kelsey Dunn - 11 - Redmond - 113.8

28.   19:03.22 - Sara Taferre - 12 - Skyview - 113.8

29.   19:03.72 - Camille Parsons - 12 - Camas - 113.6

30.   19:04.51 - Hannah Swanson - 11 - Roosevelt - 113.3

31.   19:04.61 - Cayla Seligman - 10 - Issaquah - 113.3

32.   19:04.61 - Emma Janousek - 9 - Arlington - 113.3

33.   19:04.81 - Kyla Shade - 9 - Snohomish - 113.2

34.   19:05.28 - Jessica Peterson - 12 - South Kitsap - 113.1

35.   19:05.33 - Courtney Cox - 10 - Walla Walla - 113.1

36.   19:05.70 - Ellie Clawson - 10 - Issaquah - 112.9

37.   19:07.00 - Cassidy Rude - 10 - Arlington - 112.5

38.   19:07.60 - Natalie Sharp - 10 - Garfield - 112.3

39.   19:07.60 - Stephenie Spencer - 11 - Bothell - 112.3

40.   19:08.48 - Madison Colley - 10 - Emerald Ridge - 112.0

41.   19:11.60 - Darby Womack - 12 - South Kitsap - 110.9

42.   19:14.38 - Mia Wrey - 12 - Ballard - 110.0

43.   19:16.09 - Bri Gibson - 10 - Snohomish - 109.4

44.   19:16.83 - Sidney Bullock - 10 - Richland - 109.2

45.   19:17.50 - Abby Atchison - 10 - Tahoma - 109.0

46.   19:18.00 - Amanda Kiefer - 10 - Tahoma - 108.8

47.   19:19.09 - Mary Charleson - 11 - Henry Jackson - 108.4

48.   19:19.83 - Camilla Kristensen - 10 - Yelm - 108.2

49.   19:19.87 - Hailey Nyquist - 11 - Snohomish - 108.2

50.   19:20.15 - Jordan Thurston - 11 - Bellarmine Prep - 108.1

51.   19:21.36 - Hannah Berntson - 11 - Snohomish - 107.6

52.   19:21.92 - Laura Staeheli - 10 - Bellarmine Prep - 107.5

53.   19:22.29 - Betsy Arlt - 10 - Eastmont - 107.3

54.   19:22.85 - Sophie Carroll - 11 - Central Kitsap - 107.1

55.   19:25.05 - Keagan Bolibol - 10 - Woodinville - 106.4

56.   19:25.32 - Grace Hodge - 12 - Roosevelt - 106.3

57.   19:26.71 - Cheyenne Greenside - 11 - Tahoma - 105.8

58.   19:27.32 - Ashley Mason - 10 - Todd Beamer - 105.6

59.   19:27.49 - Rachel Covey - 11 - Auburn Riverside - 105.6

60.   19:27.76 - Megan LeGresley - 10 - Redmond - 105.5

 

Girls Teams –

1.       56 - Camas - 18:24.33

2.       105 - Tahoma - 19:02.43

3.       117 - Bellarmine Prep - 19:05.19

4.       152 - Richland - 19:11.70

5.       170 - Snohomish - 19:25.43

6.       182 - Henry Jackson - 19:25.47

7.       198 - Redmond - 19:29.74

8.       205 - Eisenhower - 19:30.09

9.       206 - Roosevelt - 19:31.17

10.   261 - Central Kitsap - 19:49.28

11.   265 - Eastlake - 19:49.24

12.   281 - Gonzaga Prep - 19:54.10

13.   292 - Union - 19:52.49

14.   346 - Olympia - 20:12.02

15.   358 - Auburn Riverside - 20:19.85

16.   383 - Puyallup - 20:36.79

5 comments:

  1. It is crazy to think the top 4A school may not even be one of the 3 best teams in the meet.

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  2. And then again, the top 4A team could be one of the top 3 teams in the state.

    Either way, the reason behind why some 3A schools have been so successful in recent history is because the "watering down" of the classifications. You see this in other sports as well. In the 80s there were just 4 classifications. In the 90s it jumped to 5. Sometime in the 00s (forget what year) it jumped to 6. North Central, Kamiakin, Nathan Hale, Seattle Prep, etc. have been in the largest school classification before and probably should be now too because there are too many classifications in my opinion (especially for a sport like xc).

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    Replies
    1. I'm not sure I understand the logic that programs are stronger because they're in smaller, less competitive classes... but I do agree that there are too many classes (and had said as much many times on the Dyestat forums). Seems like there should be only 4-5 classes in Washington. That would make the state meet and state qualifying meets even more competitive, and would reduce the cost of having to host an extra classification -- big benefit for tournament sports like Basketball or Volleyball where multiple sites have to be reserved as it is.

      As for what it would mean in track/xc? North Central would still not be in the largest class even if that were the case though (not sure they'd be in the big schools in a 3-class system either), and I'm not sure how they - and Seattle Prep, which is actually a small school of only what? ~500? - would be effected other than that there would be different schools they'd be competing against. So instead of today, where North Central would be running against the likes of Bellevue, Kamiakin, University, Mt. Spokane, etc. ... their toughest competition might be Seattle Prep, Sehome, Bishop Blanchet, etc. They'd have an even easier time, but there wouldn't be as big of a gap as there was in 2A - until the last couple years. And the biggest schools class would be much stronger (and with more spots at state, the Eastside would probably get more teams on the line... as long as the CBBN schools didn't make things difficult, which is another topic that is probably too long to get into...

      IMO, the WIAA should draw back down to 4-5 classes but keep the same # of schools/athletes competing at state. So 80 schools total... based on the distribution of school sizes, it would probably work out to where Division 1 (4A/3A) would have 24 of 90 schools at state; Division 2 (3A/2A) would have 24 of about the same amount; Divisions 3 (1A) and 4 (B/2B) would have 16 each with Division 3 having about 65 and Division 4 just having lots of schools without full teams like the B schools have today.

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  3. Two points Rob. First is that teams can option up (as many do including NC and Sea Prep, and I believe NC would choose to opt up to even the largest claasification rather than competing against schools like Sehome ... No offense to them. Of course schools have to opt up for all sports so it would be tough for NC football, but not for xc of course).

    Secondly while your state model makes some sense (I am not sure I completely endorse it however) I don't feel the WIAA would like it at all based on "inequities" ... not only does it treat big and small schools differently but it is a radically different model than other sports. And the WIAA does not like to deviate from equity.

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    Replies
    1. My model would be for all sports.

      And the # of spots to state aren't always the same -- notice how the small schools some years only get 8 spots at state rather than 16 (B girls in cross country, and some years it has been both 1A and B for both boys and girls, or 8 spots to 1B state track, etc.)

      Today, 1 in every 4 schools make it to state. Keeping the same number of schools at state means that, once again, 1 in every 4 schools make it to state. Seems equitable to me.


      And you're right that schools can opt up. And North Central probably would, particularly if the GSL wanted to be a single class league. But if they're split class? I'm not sure they would... Here are some of the top programs with between 200-400 kids/class: North Central, Bellevue, Everett, Sehome, Mercer Island, Columbia River, Squalicum, Capital, North Kitsap, Lindbergh, Nathan Hale, Peninsula, Bishop Blanchet, Burlington-Edison, Bellingham, East + West Valley Spokane (and Bellarmine Prep and Gonzaga Prep, though they've always been opting up to the largest class). That's pretty much the same classification it was back in 2004/2005 and to an extent 2006/2007 (when a third of 3A dropped to 2A and have dominated since). It's not like North Central was always heads and shoulders above that kind of competition: Sehome won the state title over them in 2005 with Burlington-Edison and Seattle Prep close behind, and Bishop Blanchet won over North Central in 2004 with East Valley-Spokane and Seattle Prep close behind. Things haven't changed... if anything, the former 3A schools are even stronger now.

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