Girls NXN Projections

Note that these scores are derived including a greater variety of factors than my past NXN projections have normally included… I have factored in how well these teams have done at NXN over the past five years, the best team race they’ve had all year, average team race this year, and how well they ran as a team at their NXN Regional and State meet, in addition to my usual analysis of how good the individuals combine over the course of the season and championship season to make up their scoring five. Because of all those factors being included, I’ll also include in parenthesis the score with only my standard factors included in previous years.

 

Also note that I am going to be posting team and individual predictions separate from these projections (for those unsure of the difference I mean, predictions involve more subjective analysis while these projections are all as objective as I can make them and give no consideration to any who-beat-who for individuals or considering more carefully what teams might run better than this would suggest for whatever reason).

 

In the individual list, note that team runners are bold and individual qualifiers have an asterisk after their rating. Just a note, this is the strongest girls individual contingent that NXN has ever seen, with only 12 team runners included in the top 50 projected finishers. Every other year has had between 22-23 team runners in the top 50 girls, and it may end up that way in the end, but going into the meet the individuals look to be very well represented.

 

Girls Teams –

1.       85.46 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (80)

2.       176.56 Saratoga NY (225)

3.       180.47 Southlake Carroll TX (155)

4.       236.55 Great Oak CA (205)

5.       242.04 Fort Collins CO (285)

6.       255.74 Tatnall DE (240)

7.       262.26 Pennsbury PA (220)

8.       271.22 Coeur D' Alene ID (280)

9.       280.39 Davis UT (275)

10.   280.49 Carmel IN (295)

11.   291.86 New Trier IL (305)

12.   292.12 Assumption KY (275)

13.   295.61 Pine Creek CO (305)

14.   301.20 Naperville North IL (300)

15.   306.54 Saugus CA (395)

16.   313.05 Camas WA (340)

17.   332.84 East Aurora NY (305)

18.   347.73 The Woodlands TX (350)

19.   350.78 Wayzata MN (395)

20.   366.21 St Francis (sac) CA (415)

21.   382.88 Voorhees NJ (405)

22.   430.93 Eagan MN (495)

 

Top 50 Girls Individuals:

1.       Sarah Baxter - 11 - Simi Valley CA - 160.0*

2.       Amy-Eloise Neale - 12 - Glacier Peak WA - 157.7*

3.       Mary Cain - 11 - Unattached NY - 156.5*

4.       Heather Bates - 12 - Pine Creek CO - 154.5

5.       Katie Knight - 12 - North Central WA - 153.4*

6.       Alexa Efraimson - 10 - Camas WA - 153.3

7.       Maria Hauger - 12 - Shakopee MN - 153.2*

8.       Madeline Perez - 11 - Glenbard West IL - 152.6*

9.       Isabella Burda - 10 - Arlington NY - 152.4*

10.   Elise Cranny - 11 - Niwot CO - 152.1*

11.   Karis Jochen - 12 - A&M Consolidated TX - 151.9*

12.   Hagen Reedy - 12 - Buchanan CA - 150.9*

13.   Wesley Frazier - 12 - Unattached NC - 149.3*

14.   Taylor Driscoll - 12 - Saratoga NY - 148.6

15.   Elle Purrier - 12 - Richford VT - 148.6*

16.   Katie Rainsberger - 9 - Air Academy CO - 148.2*

17.   Alli Cash - 12 - Shawnee Mission West KS - 147.9*

18.   Sandie Raines - 12 - Humble Kingwood TX - 147.7*

19.   Sara Tsai  - 10 - South Eugene OR - 147.2*

20.   Jessica Molloy - 10 - Mountain Brook AL - 146.7*

21.   Taylor Werner - 9 - Sainte Genevieve MO - 146.5*

22.   Clare Flanagan - 11 - Blake MN - 146.3*

23.   Taylor Spillane - 12 - Champlain Valley VT - 145.9*

24.   Bobbie Burgess - 12 - West Lafayette IN - 145.8*

25.   Sarah Disanza - 12 - High Point NJ - 145.7*

26.   Maggie Schmaedick  - 12 - Sheldon OR - 144.8*

27.   Mary Kate Vaughn - 9 - Oakwood OH - 144.5*

28.   Courtney Ackerman - 12 - New Trier IL - 144.5

29.   Madie Boreman - 9 - Leander Rouse TX - 144.3*

30.   Maggie Bell - 9 - Granite Bay CA - 144.3*

31.   Katherine Jensen  - 12 - College Park TX - 144.3*

32.   Lucy Biles - 10 - Herriman UT - 144.0*

33.   Hannah Christen - 11 - Lake Braddock VA - 143.8*

34.   Alex Davis - 12 - Ardmore OK - 143.6*

35.   Stephanie Jenks - 9 - Linn-Mar IA - 143.6*

36.   Anna French - 10 - Wayzata MN - 143.5

37.   Bethany Hasz - 9 - Alexandria Jefferson MN - 142.8*

38.   Collette Richter - 12 - Mountain Lakes NJ - 142.6*

39.   Paige Rice - 11 - St. Mary's Academy OR - 142.6*

40.   Kelly Janokowicz - 12 - Hillsborough NJ - 142.4*

41.   Samantha Ortega-Hufana - 10 - Saugus CA - 142.0

42.   Bailey Davis - 11 - Assumption KY - 141.5

43.   Annika Avery - 10 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 141.3

44.   Courtney Kreigshauser - 12 - Southlake Carroll TX - 141.2

45.   Maddie McLellan - 11 - The Woodlands TX - 140.9

46.   Emma Gee - 10 - Legacy CO - 140.9*

47.   Erin Hooker - 12 - Fort Collins CO - 140.7

48.   Gianna Frontera - 11 - Newburg NY - 140.7*

49.   Danielle Anderson - 12 - Eagan MN - 140.7

50.   Carolyn Bethel - 12 - Hidden Valley VA - 140.3*