Sunday, November 25, 2012

US Boys Team Rankings - Nov. 25

First off, let me mention that these rankings are done by looking at how well the top five runners have run throughout the season, with the most significant weighting by far on the state and especially NXN Regional races. Teams might be better suited to score better at the national level than they actually finished at the state or regional level, and because of that these shouldn’t be taken simply as “we’re ranked #35, there must be 34 teams better than us!” as that is not necessarily true (re: Palatine IL boys last year, I had them ranked outside the top 25 because of where they finished at state and regionals, despite saying they were a top 15 team… turned out they were the fifth best team at NXN when all was said and done). As for teams missing runners at the championship meets, the only runners included are those that ran at EITHER the state or NXN regional meets (so if a team held out a runner for whatever reason at their NXN Regional, that is not being held against them and is taken into account when looking at where they finished within the region). Let me also note that some teams have been pushed more than others… there are those who would rightfully say “Team X is undefeated and have been a strong program over the last several years, they should be ranked higher!” and they would have a very valid point… but, again, these rankings are based on the caliber of performances, not whether you win or lose (beyond maintaining the order of finish, if no one was missing potential scorers, at the state and regional level). Because of that, also realize that teams such as the Saugus girls may very well be better than their ranking here may indicate (being undefeated, I believe, and also being one of the very best programs in the nation over the last half decade), but this is simply a reflection of how fast they have run to date. If they run better at NXN – and I think it is likely they will – they will be moved up accordingly.


One last note… the gap between many of these teams are pretty small. For what it’s worth, I’d say there are three teams clearly in the running for the NXN title on the boys side (four if North Central has their #1 Wilmot back and near 100% again), and probably a total of seven teams with pretty good chances at ending up on the podium with strong performances.


Now, without further ado, here are the top 70 rankings.


Boys –

1.       American Fork UT – Utah 5A State Champion; NXN-Southwest Champion

2.       Southlake Carroll TX – Texas 5A State Champion; NXN-South Champion

3.       Christian Brothers NJ – New Jersey Group NP A Champion; NXN-Northeast Champion

4.       Arcadia CA – California D1 State Champion; CIF-SS Division 1 Champion

5.       North Central WA – Washington 3A State Champion; NXN-Northwest Champion

6.       York IL – Illinois 3A State Champion; NXN-Midwest Champion

7.       Davis UT – Utah 5A State Runner-up; NXN-Southwest Runner-up

8.       Chantilly VA – Virginia 3A State Champion; NXN-Southeast third place (without key scorers)

9.       Fayetteville-Manlius NY – New York A State Runner-up; NXN-New York Champion

10.   Cardinal O'Hara PA – Pennsylvania 3A State Runner-up; NXN-Northeast Runner-up

11.   West Chester Henderson PA – Pennsylvania 3A State Champion; NXN-Northeast third place

12.   St. Xavier KY – Kentucky 3A State Champion; NXN-Southeast Champion

13.   Carmel IN – Indiana State Champion; NXN-Midwest Runner-up

14.   Blacksburg VA – Virginia 2A State Champion; NXN-Southeast Runner-up

15.   Bismarck ND – North Dakota A State Champion; NXN-Heartland Champion

16.   Highland Milford MI – Michigan Division 1 State Champion

17.   Cincinnati St. Xavier OH – Ohio Division 1 State Champion; NXN-Midwest third place

18.   Kamiakin WA – Washington 3A State Runner-up; NXN-Northwest Runner-up

19.   Summit OR – Oregon 5A State Champion; NXN-Northwest third place

20.   Saratoga NY – New York A State Champion; NXN-New York Runner-up

21.   Fort Wayne Carroll IN – Indiana State Runner-up; NXN-Midwest seventh place (without key scorers)

22.   California CA – California D1 State Runner-up; CIF-SS Division 1 fourth place

23.   Carlsbad CA – California D1 State third place; CIF-SDS Division 1 Champion

24.   Vista Murrieta CA – California D1 State fourth place; CIF-SS Division 1 Runner-up

25.   Los Alamos NM – New Mexico 4A State Champion; NXN-Southwest third place

26.   Herriman UT – Utah 4A State Champion; NXN-Southwest fourth place

27.   Cleveland NM – New Mexico 5A State Champion; NXN-Southwest fifth place

28.   Dowling Catholic IA – Iowa 4A State Champion; NXN-Heartland Runner-up

29.   The Woodlands TX – Texas 5A State Runner-up; NXN-South Runner-up

30.   Brentwood TN – Tennessee 3A State Champion; NXN-Southeast fourth place

31.   Columbus North IN – Indiana State sixth place; NXN-Midwest fourth place

32.   Lyons Township IL – Illinois 3A State third place; NXN-Midwest fifth place

33.   Valparaiso IN – Indiana State third place; NXN-Midwest sixth place

34.   Warsaw Community IN – Indiana State fourth place

35.   Hamilton Southeastern IN – Indiana State fifth place

36.   Mountain Vista CO – Colorado 5A State Champion; NXN-Southwest sixth place

37.   Poly (Long Beach) CA – California D1 State fifth place; CIF-SS Division 1 sixth place

38.   Rancho Cucamonga CA – California D1 State sixth place; CIF-SS Division 1 fifth place

39.   Seattle Prep WA – Washington 3A State fourth place; NXN-Northwest fourth place

40.   Don Bosco Prep NJ – New Jersey Group NP A Runner-up; NXN-Northeast fourth place

41.   Madera South CA – California D1 State seventh place; CIF-CS Division 1 Champion

42.   Daniel SC – South Carolina 3A State Champion

43.   Bishop Hendricken RI – New England Champion; NXN-Northeast fifth place

44.   Belen Jesuit FL – Florida 3A State Champion; NXN-Southeast fifth place

45.   Lexington SC – South Carolina 4A State Champion

46.   Westfield IN – Indiana State seventh place

47.   Edina MN – Minnesota 2A State Runner-up; NXN-Heartland third place

48.   Stillwater MN – Minnesota 2A State Champion; NXN-Heartland fourth place

49.   Westlake CA – California D2 State Champion; CIF-SS Division 2 Runner-up

50.   Dana Hills CA – California D1 State eighth place; CIF-SS Division 1 seventh place

51.   Waterford Mott MI – Michigan Division 1 State Runner-up

52.   Mountain View UT – Utah 4A State third place; NXN-Southwest seventh place

53.   Fairview CO – Colorado 5A State Runner-up; NXN-Southwest eighth place

54.   Bonneville UT – Utah 4A State Runner-up; NXN-Southwest ninth place

55.   Ogden UT – Utah 3A State Champion; NXN-Southwest tenth place

56.   St. Anthony's NY – New York CHSAA Champion; NXN-New York third place

57.   Saugus CA – California D2 State Runner-up; CIF-SS Division 2 third place

58.   St. John Bosco CA – California D3 State Champion; CIF-SS Division 3 third place

59.   Palatine IL – Illinois 3A State ninth place; NXN-Midwest eighth place

60.   O'Fallon IL – Illinois 3A State Runner-up; NXN-Midwest ninth place

61.   Jones Prep IL – Illinois 2A State Champion; NXN-Midwest tenth place

62.   Midlothian VA – Virginia 3A State Runner-up; NXN-Southeast sixth place

63.   Perham MN – Minnesota 1A State Champion; NXN-Heartland fifth place

64.   Wayzata MN – Minnesota 2A State third place; NXN-Heartland sixth place

65.   WWP South NJ – New Jersey Group 4 Champion

66.   Palos Verdes CA – California D3 State Runner-up; CIF-SS Division 3 Champion

67.   Pembroke MA – Massachusetts Division 2 Champion; NXN-Northeast sixth place

68.   Jesuit OR – Oregon 6A State Runner-up; NXN-Northwest fifth place

69.   Siuslaw OR – Oregon 4A State Champion; NXN-Northwest sixth place

70.   Nathan Hale WA – Washington 3A State third place; NXN-Northwest seventh place


  1. Thanks for posting, watchout. I've missed your regular rankings this year, as they are usually much better and more reliable than other sources (i.e. xcnation). Anyway, below are my NXN predictions (same disclaimers as yours above -- not "rankings" per se, but thoughts on how teams will do head-to-head next week) -- statguy37

    1. Southlake Carroll TX
    2. CBA NJ
    3. North Central WA
    4. American Fork UT
    5. Arcadia CA
    6. York IL
    7. Davis UT
    8. Cardinal O’Hara PA
    9. Bismarck ND
    10. Westchester Henderson PA
    11. Fayatteville-Manlius NY
    12. Dowling Catholic IA
    13. Carmel IN
    14. St. Xavier KY
    15. Kamiakin WA
    16. St. Xavier OH
    17. Woodlands TX
    18. California CA
    19. Summit OR
    20. Carlsbad CA
    21. Saratoga Springs NY
    22. Blacksburg VA

    1. Thanks; I'll try to get some NXN predictions and/or projections up at some point this week as well.

  2. Arcadia in front of North Central? Do you know how badly North Central beat them at Bob Firman?

    1. That was September, and that was with Wilmot.
      Both teams have since improved, but North Central has also been without Wilmot... as I explained, with Wilmot near 100% NC would be a potential national champion (and Arcadia probably is not).

    2. What if I told you they are running Wilmot for sure this coming weekend?

    3. I wouldn't be surprised, but it woouldn't change what has happened, and so it wouldn't be included in the rankings (Also, it's to be seen how close to 100% he'll be).

  3. I miss ol statguy! Watchout seriously did I just see you rank 7, SEVEN Indiana teams in the top 50! That is almost worse than what I ever did! :D We did have some good depth this year, for once in my life I am lower on the midwest than you. Maybe I'm trying to be too unbiased now. Although I think me and you are in general agreement on rankings.

  4. In my opinion, (and I'd suspect many people's opinion), this year's NXN boys field is the best since NXN was created. At least in the team competition. So a question...

    If one of the "Top 4" unbeaten teams -- American Fork, Southlake Carroll, North Central, and CBA -- wins NXN, will they deserve to be in the conversation for best boys team ever? (I believe those teams are all unbeaten -- someone please correct me if I'm wrong.)

    We never had the benefit of seeing a team like York '99 or some of those Mead teams race against a national field so we'll never know for sure, but it does make for interesting discussion. - statguy37

    1. Yes, I'm pretty sure those teams are all unbeaten as well. And yes, I would absolutely agree the winner of NXN this year stands a good chance of being the best boys team ever.