First off, let me mention that these rankings are done by looking at how well the top five runners have run throughout the season, with the most significant weighting by far on the state and especially NXN Regional races. Teams might be better suited to score better at the national level than they actually finished at the state or regional level, and because of that these shouldn’t be taken simply as “we’re ranked #35, there must be 34 teams better than us!” as that is not necessarily true (re: Palatine IL boys last year, I had them ranked outside the top 25 because of where they finished at state and regionals, despite saying they were a top 15 team… turned out they were the fifth best team at NXN when all was said and done). As for teams missing runners at the championship meets, the only runners included are those that ran at EITHER the state or NXN regional meets (so if a team held out a runner for whatever reason at their NXN Regional, that is not being held against them and is taken into account when looking at where they finished within the region). Let me also note that some teams have been pushed more than others… there are those who would rightfully say “Team X is undefeated and have been a strong program over the last several years, they should be ranked higher!” and they would have a very valid point… but, again, these rankings are based on the caliber of performances, not whether you win or lose (beyond maintaining the order of finish, if no one was missing potential scorers, at the state and regional level). Because of that, also realize that teams such as the Saugus girls may very well be better than their ranking here may indicate (being undefeated, I believe, and also being one of the very best programs in the nation over the last half decade), but this is simply a reflection of how fast they have run to date. If they run better at NXN – and I think it is likely they will – they will be moved up accordingly.
One last note… the gap between many of these teams are pretty small. For what it’s worth, I’d say there are three teams clearly in the running for the NXN title on the boys side (four if North Central has their #1 Wilmot back and near 100% again), and probably a total of seven teams with pretty good chances at ending up on the podium with strong performances.
Now, without further ado, here are the top 70 rankings.
Boys –
1. American Fork UT – Utah 5A State Champion; NXN-Southwest Champion
2. Southlake Carroll TX – Texas 5A State Champion; NXN-South Champion
3. Christian Brothers NJ – New Jersey Group NP A Champion; NXN-Northeast Champion
4. Arcadia CA – California D1 State Champion; CIF-SS Division 1 Champion
5. North Central WA – Washington 3A State Champion; NXN-Northwest Champion
6. York IL – Illinois 3A State Champion; NXN-Midwest Champion
7. Davis UT – Utah 5A State Runner-up; NXN-Southwest Runner-up
8. Chantilly VA – Virginia 3A State Champion; NXN-Southeast third place (without key scorers)
9. Fayetteville-Manlius NY – New York A State Runner-up; NXN-New York Champion
10. Cardinal O'Hara PA – Pennsylvania 3A State Runner-up; NXN-Northeast Runner-up
11. West Chester Henderson PA – Pennsylvania 3A State Champion; NXN-Northeast third place
12. St. Xavier KY – Kentucky 3A State Champion; NXN-Southeast Champion
13. Carmel IN – Indiana State Champion; NXN-Midwest Runner-up
14. Blacksburg VA – Virginia 2A State Champion; NXN-Southeast Runner-up
15. Bismarck ND – North Dakota A State Champion; NXN-Heartland Champion
16. Highland Milford MI – Michigan Division 1 State Champion
17. Cincinnati St. Xavier OH – Ohio Division 1 State Champion; NXN-Midwest third place
18. Kamiakin WA – Washington 3A State Runner-up; NXN-Northwest Runner-up
19. Summit OR – Oregon 5A State Champion; NXN-Northwest third place
20. Saratoga NY – New York A State Champion; NXN-New York Runner-up
21. Fort Wayne Carroll IN – Indiana State Runner-up; NXN-Midwest seventh place (without key scorers)
22. California CA – California D1 State Runner-up; CIF-SS Division 1 fourth place
23. Carlsbad CA – California D1 State third place; CIF-SDS Division 1 Champion
24. Vista Murrieta CA – California D1 State fourth place; CIF-SS Division 1 Runner-up
25. Los Alamos NM – New Mexico 4A State Champion; NXN-Southwest third place
26. Herriman UT – Utah 4A State Champion; NXN-Southwest fourth place
27. Cleveland NM – New Mexico 5A State Champion; NXN-Southwest fifth place
28. Dowling Catholic IA – Iowa 4A State Champion; NXN-Heartland Runner-up
29. The Woodlands TX – Texas 5A State Runner-up; NXN-South Runner-up
30. Brentwood TN – Tennessee 3A State Champion; NXN-Southeast fourth place
31. Columbus North IN – Indiana State sixth place; NXN-Midwest fourth place
32. Lyons Township IL – Illinois 3A State third place; NXN-Midwest fifth place
33. Valparaiso IN – Indiana State third place; NXN-Midwest sixth place
34. Warsaw Community IN – Indiana State fourth place
35. Hamilton Southeastern IN – Indiana State fifth place
36. Mountain Vista CO – Colorado 5A State Champion; NXN-Southwest sixth place
37. Poly (Long Beach) CA – California D1 State fifth place; CIF-SS Division 1 sixth place
38. Rancho Cucamonga CA – California D1 State sixth place; CIF-SS Division 1 fifth place
39. Seattle Prep WA – Washington 3A State fourth place; NXN-Northwest fourth place
40. Don Bosco Prep NJ – New Jersey Group NP A Runner-up; NXN-Northeast fourth place
41. Madera South CA – California D1 State seventh place; CIF-CS Division 1 Champion
42. Daniel SC – South Carolina 3A State Champion
43. Bishop Hendricken RI – New England Champion; NXN-Northeast fifth place
44. Belen Jesuit FL – Florida 3A State Champion; NXN-Southeast fifth place
45. Lexington SC – South Carolina 4A State Champion
46. Westfield IN – Indiana State seventh place
47. Edina MN – Minnesota 2A State Runner-up; NXN-Heartland third place
48. Stillwater MN – Minnesota 2A State Champion; NXN-Heartland fourth place
49. Westlake CA – California D2 State Champion; CIF-SS Division 2 Runner-up
50. Dana Hills CA – California D1 State eighth place; CIF-SS Division 1 seventh place
51. Waterford Mott MI – Michigan Division 1 State Runner-up
52. Mountain View UT – Utah 4A State third place; NXN-Southwest seventh place
53. Fairview CO – Colorado 5A State Runner-up; NXN-Southwest eighth place
54. Bonneville UT – Utah 4A State Runner-up; NXN-Southwest ninth place
55. Ogden UT – Utah 3A State Champion; NXN-Southwest tenth place
56. St. Anthony's NY – New York CHSAA Champion; NXN-New York third place
57. Saugus CA – California D2 State Runner-up; CIF-SS Division 2 third place
58. St. John Bosco CA – California D3 State Champion; CIF-SS Division 3 third place
59. Palatine IL – Illinois 3A State ninth place; NXN-Midwest eighth place
60. O'Fallon IL – Illinois 3A State Runner-up; NXN-Midwest ninth place
61. Jones Prep IL – Illinois 2A State Champion; NXN-Midwest tenth place
62. Midlothian VA – Virginia 3A State Runner-up; NXN-Southeast sixth place
63. Perham MN – Minnesota 1A State Champion; NXN-Heartland fifth place
64. Wayzata MN – Minnesota 2A State third place; NXN-Heartland sixth place
65. WWP South NJ – New Jersey Group 4 Champion
66. Palos Verdes CA – California D3 State Runner-up; CIF-SS Division 3 Champion
67. Pembroke MA – Massachusetts Division 2 Champion; NXN-Northeast sixth place
68. Jesuit OR – Oregon 6A State Runner-up; NXN-Northwest fifth place
69. Siuslaw OR – Oregon 4A State Champion; NXN-Northwest sixth place
70. Nathan Hale WA – Washington 3A State third place; NXN-Northwest seventh place
Thanks for posting, watchout. I've missed your regular rankings this year, as they are usually much better and more reliable than other sources (i.e. xcnation). Anyway, below are my NXN predictions (same disclaimers as yours above -- not "rankings" per se, but thoughts on how teams will do head-to-head next week) -- statguy37
ReplyDelete1. Southlake Carroll TX
2. CBA NJ
3. North Central WA
4. American Fork UT
5. Arcadia CA
6. York IL
7. Davis UT
8. Cardinal O’Hara PA
9. Bismarck ND
10. Westchester Henderson PA
11. Fayatteville-Manlius NY
12. Dowling Catholic IA
13. Carmel IN
14. St. Xavier KY
15. Kamiakin WA
16. St. Xavier OH
17. Woodlands TX
18. California CA
19. Summit OR
20. Carlsbad CA
21. Saratoga Springs NY
22. Blacksburg VA
Thanks; I'll try to get some NXN predictions and/or projections up at some point this week as well.
DeleteArcadia in front of North Central? Do you know how badly North Central beat them at Bob Firman?
ReplyDeleteThat was September, and that was with Wilmot.
DeleteBoth teams have since improved, but North Central has also been without Wilmot... as I explained, with Wilmot near 100% NC would be a potential national champion (and Arcadia probably is not).
What if I told you they are running Wilmot for sure this coming weekend?
DeleteI wouldn't be surprised, but it woouldn't change what has happened, and so it wouldn't be included in the rankings (Also, it's to be seen how close to 100% he'll be).
DeleteI miss ol statguy! Watchout seriously did I just see you rank 7, SEVEN Indiana teams in the top 50! That is almost worse than what I ever did! :D We did have some good depth this year, for once in my life I am lower on the midwest than you. Maybe I'm trying to be too unbiased now. Although I think me and you are in general agreement on rankings.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, (and I'd suspect many people's opinion), this year's NXN boys field is the best since NXN was created. At least in the team competition. So a question...
ReplyDeleteIf one of the "Top 4" unbeaten teams -- American Fork, Southlake Carroll, North Central, and CBA -- wins NXN, will they deserve to be in the conversation for best boys team ever? (I believe those teams are all unbeaten -- someone please correct me if I'm wrong.)
We never had the benefit of seeing a team like York '99 or some of those Mead teams race against a national field so we'll never know for sure, but it does make for interesting discussion. - statguy37
Yes, I'm pretty sure those teams are all unbeaten as well. And yes, I would absolutely agree the winner of NXN this year stands a good chance of being the best boys team ever.
Delete