Friday, November 15, 2019

NXR Midwest Projections

Unfortunately, unlike the NW Regional, the MW Regional doesn't publish a full list of all athletes competing for every club in the championship race, an also not all of the teams qualified for their state meet, so I won't be doing a full/complete projection for the meet. However, here is a rough starting point to compare the teams entered - 31 of the 34 boys teams are included and 31 of the 32 girls teams are included and their state meet performances are compared. I'm not going to list the individuals as well (you can see the top individuals in the region in the State Meet merge post, though not all will be in attendance).

Due in part to Michigan teams not being allowed to officially compete at NXN events, the regional field isn't nearly as strong as it could be:

15 of the top 18 boys teams are in attendance, with only one other Top-22 team in the field and 3 more Honorable Mention teams. Only 19 of the top 35 teams are in attendance and are competing against 15 other teams that weren't ranked or nearly ranked from their state meet performances.

On the girls side, it is even worse. Only 3 of the top 5 teams are in attendance and scoring (the #4 team is a Michigan team who is competing but NOT scoring). The field is missing the #3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 12, and 13 teams! That's a whole lot of missing firepower that takes this region from "deep and competitive" to "a few good teams at the top". The good news is, the depth beyond the ranked teams is somewhat solid: of the 32 scoring teams in the field, 22 of them are either ranked or were Honorable Mention leaving only 10 other teams that weren't ranked or nearly ranked from their state meet performances.

Boys 31 Team score (and time set to the 2018 NXR Midwest race):
  1. 87 - St. Charles (East) IL - 78:06 (Illinois 3A Champion)
  2. 88 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL - 78:16 (Illinois 3A Runner-up)
  3. 224 - Elmhurst (York) IL - 79:31 (Illinois 3A Third Place)
  4. 225 - Sandburg IL - 79:20 (Illinois 3A Fourth Place)
  5. 285 - Oswego (East) IL - 79:58 (Illinois 3A Fifth Place)
  6. 286 - St. Louis University MO - 79:55 (Missouri Class 4 Runner-up)
  7. 288 - St Xavier OH - 79:59 (Ohio D1 Champion)
  8. 295 - Woodridge OH - 80:15 (Ohio D2 Champion)
  9. 301 - Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran IN - 80:05 (Indiana Champino)
  10. 303 - Mason OH - 80:14 (Ohio D1 Runner-up)
  11. 307 - Maine South IL - 80:10 (Illinois 3A Sixth Place)
  12. 321 - Carmel IN - 80:30 (Indiana Runner-up)
  13. 332 - Hersey IL - 79:37 (Illinois 3A Seventh Place)
  14. 345 - Naperville (North) IL - 80:17 (Illinois 3A Eighth Place)
  15. 348 - Central (St. Joseph) MO - 80:32 (Missouri Class 4 Fifth Place)
  16. 370 - Minooka IL - 80:53 (Illinois 3A Ninth Place)
  17. 404 - Winnetka (New Trier) IL - 81:00 (Illinois 3A Tenth Place)
  18. 430 - Downers Grove (North) IL - 81:16 (Illinois 3A #11)
  19. 454 - Columbus North IN - 81:20 (Indiana Fourth Place)
  20. 496 - Pickerington North OH - 81:08 (Ohio D1 Fifth Place)
  21. 498 - Hinsdale (Central) IL - 81:50 (Illinois 3A #12)
  22. 508 - Aurora (Waubonsie Valley) IL - 81:42 (Illinois 3A #13)
  23. 522 - Lake Zurich IL - 81:41 (Illinois 3A #14)
  24. 532 - Barrington IL - 81:52 (Illinois 3A #15)
  25. 539 - Lyons Township IL - 81:45 (Illinois 3A #16)
  26. 549 - Homestead IN - 82:03 (Indiana Sixth Place)
  27. 598 - Beavercreek OH - 82:35 (Ohio D1 Tenth Place)
  28. 691 - Noblesville IN - 83:16 (Indiana #12)
  29. 698 - McHenry IL - 83:02 (Illinois 3A #20)
  30. 714 - Ashland OH - 83:12 (Ohio D1 #13)
  31. 867 - Floyd Central IN - 84:32 (Indiana #19)

Girls 31 Team Score:
  1. 114 - Beavercreek OH - 90:31 (Ohio D1 Champion)
  2. 121 - Naperville (North) IL - 92:04 (Illinois 3A Champion)
  3. 204 - Yorkville IL - 93:52 (Illinois 3A Runner-up)
  4. 251 - Lakota East OH - 94:41 (Ohio D1 Runner-up)
  5. 287 - Hinsdale (Central) IL - 94:03 (Illinois 3A Third Place)
  6. 306 - Hilliard Davidson OH - 94:11 (Ohio D1 Third Place)
  7. 316 - Winnebago IL - 95:15 (Illinois 1A Champion)
  8. 338 - Lexington OH - 94:44 (Ohio D2 Champion)
  9. 343 - Downers Grove (South) IL - 94:38 (Illinois 3A Fifth Place)
  10. 346 - Carmel IN - 95:29 (Indiana Third Place)
  11. 356 - Glenbard West IL - 93:49 (Illinois 3A Sixth Place)
  12. 370 - Barrington IL - 95:06 (Illinois 3A Seventh Place)
  13. 393 - Columbus North IN - 96:09 (Indiana Fifth Place)
  14. 402 - Lee's Summit West MO - 96:00 (Missouri Class 4 Champion)
  15. 413 - Mt. Prospect (Prospect) IL - 95:43 (Illinois 3A Eighth Place)
  16. 437 - Minooka IL - 96:15 (Illinois 3A Ninth Place)
  17. 445 - Lockport (Township) IL - 96:19 (Illinois 3A Tenth Place)
  18. 447 - Mason OH - 95:56 (Ohio D1 Fourth Place)
  19. 451 - Rock Bridge MO - 95:48 (Missouri Class 4 Runner-up)
  20. 456 - Oswego IL - 96:28 (Illinois 3A #11)
  21. 472 - Loveland OH - 96:43 (Ohio D1 Sixth Place)
  22. 477 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL - 95:50 (Illinois 3A #12)
  23. 489 - Medina OH - 96:10 (Ohio D1 Fifth Place)
  24. 492 - Eureka MO - 96:42 (Missouri Class 4 Third Place)
  25. 520 - Noblesville IN - 97:04 (Indiana Seventh Place)
  26. 565 - Minster OH - 97:35 (Ohio D3 Champion)
  27. 565 - Lyons Township IL - 97:31 (Illinois 3A #17)
  28. 570 - Elmhurst (York) IL - 97:24 (Illinois 3A #18)
  29. 580 - St Joseph Academy OH - 97:19 (Ohio D1 Eighth Place)
  30. 617 - Bloomington North IN - 97:55 (Indiana Tenth Place)
  31. 639 - Downers Grove (North) IL - 98:06 (Illinois 3A #21)

The story here: strong favorites for the AQ spots on both sides with St. Charles East IL and Wheaton Warrenville South IL on the boys side, and Beavercreek OH and Naperville North IL on the girls side.

Also strong favorites for the #3/4 spots on the boys side with York IL and Sandburg IL, and on the girls side a strong favorite for #3 in Yorkville IL.

The battle beyond those teams should be pretty intense. No guarantees for potential At-Large teams here, but a good race from York or Sandburg boys probably puts them in consideration while Yorkville girls would probably need a better performance... Ann Arbor Pioneer would probably be in a better position to secure third place and a potential At-Large bid, but unfortunately Michigan teams continue to have problems being cleared to compete at NXN events due to their state association's rules.

Girls MW State Meet Power Merge **REVISED**

Here's a look at the top team and individual performances from all of the region's state meets. I'll include the scores for the 22-team power merge, as usual, plus an honorable mention list of the teams that just missed out on the final cut. I'll also list the Top-100 individuals, their ratings from their state meets, plus an equivalent time for NXR.

ROUGH 200.0 rating equivalents: 14:00 Illinois ~ 15:00 Missouri ~ 14:55 Michigan ~ 14:55 Ohio ~ 15:00 Indiana

Girls Top-22 Teams:
  1. 120 - Beavercreek OH - 90:31 - Ohio D1 Champion
  2. 140 - Naperville (North) IL - 92:04 - Illinois 3A Champion
  3. 153 - East Grand Rapids MI - 92:19 - Michigan D2 Champion
  4. 196 - Ann Arbor Pioneer MI - 92:02 - Michigan D1 Champion
  5. 237 - Yorkville IL - 93:52 - Illinois 3A Runner-up
  6. 240 - Carroll (Fort Wayne) IN - 93:44 - Indiana Champion
  7. 257 - Traverse City Central MI - 93:29 - Michigan D1 Runner-up
  8. 276 - Petoskey MI - 94:22 - Michigan D2 Runner-up
  9. 290 - Lakota East OH - 94:41 - Ohio D1 Runner-up
  10. 295 - Hinsdale (Central) IL - 94:03 - Illinois 3A Third Place
  11. 304 - Hilliard Davidson OH - 94:11 - OhioD1 Third Place
  12. 306 - Batavia IL - 94:03 - Illinois 3A Fourth Place
  13. 308 - Zionsville IN - 94:29 - Indiana Runner-up
  14. 313 - Glenbard West IL - 93:49 - Illinois 3A Sixth Place
  15. 322 - Lexington OH - 94:44 - Ohio D2 Champion
  16. 325 - Downers Grove (South) IL - 94:38 - Illinois 3A Fifth Place
  17. 341 - Winnebago IL - 95:15 - Illinois 1A Champion
  18. 351 - Barrington IL - 95:06 - Illinois 3A Seventh Place
  19. 363 - Carmel IN - 95:29 - Indiana Third Place
  20. 380 - Columbus North IN - 96:09 - Indiana Fifth Place
  21. 386 - Mt. Prospect (Prospect) IL - 95:43 - Illinois 3A Eighth Place
  22. 392 - Fishers IN - 95:58 - Indiana Fourth Place
Honorable Mention (by state):
Illinois: Benet Academy, Lockport (Township), Minooka, Oak Park-River Forest, Oswego, Wheaton Warrenville South
Indiana: Brebeuf Jesuit
Michigan: Brighton, Saline
Missouri: Lee's Summit West, Rock Bridge
Ohio: Loveland, Mason

Top-100 Girls Individuals:
  1. 158.0 - 16:58 - Zofia Dudek, 12 - Ann Arbor Pioneer MI
  2. 155.7 - 17:05 - Tatum David, 9 - Richland County (Olney) IL
  3. 155.1 - 17:07 - Katelynne Hart, 12 - Glenbard West IL
  4. 152.4 - 17:15 - Erin Strzelecki, 12 - Fort Wayne Bishop Dwenger IN
  5. 150.6 - 17:20 - Taylor Ewert, 12 - Beavercreek OH
  6. 145.2 - 17:36 - Annalyssa Crain, 11 - Edgewood IN
  7. 145.0 - 17:37 - Brooke Stromsland, 11 - Lakes Community IL
  8. 143.7 - 17:41 - Samantha Poglitsch, 11 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL
  9. 142.8 - 17:43 - Katrina Schlenker, 10 - Batavia IL
  10. 142.7 - 17:44 - Ella Gilson, 11 - Hawken OH
  11. 142.5 - 17:44 - Lianna Surtz, 10 - Rosary IL
  12. 142.4 - 17:45 - Addie Engel, 12 - Catholic Central (Springfield) OH
  13. 141.8 - 17:46 - Aly Negovetich, 10 - Fox Lake (Grant) IL
  14. 141.8 - 17:46 - Savannah Roark, 12 - Beavercreek OH
  15. 141.1 - 17:48 - Maggie Gamboa, 11 - Naperville (North) IL
  16. 140.7 - 17:49 - Maria Kaylor, 12 - Princeton OH
  17. 140.7 - 17:50 - Lauren Mick, 12 - Notre Dame Academy (Toledo) OH
  18. 140.3 - 17:51 - Arianne Olson, 9 - Holland West Ottawa MI
  19. 139.4 - 17:53 - Emily Bardwell, 12 - Brunswick Senior OH
  20. 139.3 - 17:54 - Madeline Keller, 10 - Brebeuf Jesuit IN
  21. 138.6 - 17:56 - Karina James, 10 - Lowell IN
  22. 138.6 - 17:56 - Juliette Keller, 12 - Medina OH
  23. 138.5 - 17:56 - Grace Hartman, 10 - Oakwood OH
  24. 138.2 - 17:57 - Julia Flynn, 10 - Traverse City Central MI
  25. 138.1 - 17:57 - Anna Petr, 12 - East Grand Rapids MI
  26. 137.2 - 18:00 - Madi Wood, 10 - Saline MI
  27. 137.1 - 18:00 - Carolyn Ford, 9 - Rock Bridge MO
  28. 137.1 - 18:00 - Jaden Theis, 12 - Lansing Catholic MI
  29. 137.0 - 18:01 - Jodie Pierce, 12 - Beavercreek OH
  30. 136.8 - 18:01 - Sophia Kennedy, 9 - Park Tudor IN
  31. 136.4 - 18:02 - Makenna Veen, 12 - Plainwell MI
  32. 136.1 - 18:03 - Lydia Roller, 11 - Staunton IL
  33. 136.0 - 18:03 - Lindsay Stull, 11 - Hilliard Davidson OH
  34. 135.7 - 18:04 - Mya Trober, 10 - Blue Springs South MO
  35. 135.6 - 18:05 - Ava Parekh, 10 - Chicago (Latin) IL
  36. 135.4 - 18:05 - Julia Ray, 9 - Mary Institute-Country Day School MO
  37. 135.1 - 18:06 - Erin Reidy, 12 - Downers Grove (South) IL
  38. 135.1 - 18:06 - Audrey DaDamio, 11 - Birmingham Seaholm MI
  39. 134.8 - 18:07 - Emma Watcke, 12 - Hinsdale (Central) IL
  40. 134.6 - 18:08 - Halle Hamilton, 11 - Lexington OH
  41. 134.6 - 18:08 - Mia Patria, 12 - Clarkston MI
  42. 134.4 - 18:08 - Elizabeth Babcock, 11 - Novi MI
  43. 134.4 - 18:08 - Audrey Mendrys, 11 - Naperville (North) IL
  44. 134.3 - 18:08 - Zoe Duffus, 11 - Carroll (Fort Wayne) IN
  45. 134.3 - 18:09 - Abby VanderKooi, 10 - Muskegon Western Michigan Christian MI
  46. 134.2 - 18:09 - Kate Jortberg, 12 - Glenview (Glenbrook South) IL
  47. 134.0 - 18:10 - Juliann Williams, 11 - Beavercreek OH
  48. 133.9 - 18:10 - Mckenna Revord, 12 - Hinsdale (Central) IL
  49. 133.8 - 18:10 - Amelia McLain, 12 - Benton IL
  50. 133.8 - 18:10 - Ashley Heidenrich, 12 - Aurora (Waubonsie Valley) IL
  51. 133.6 - 18:11 - Alexa Keiser, 12 - Fenton MI
  52. 133.5 - 18:11 - Rachel Price, 10 - St. Charles (North) IL
  53. 133.4 - 18:11 - Katelyn Wasson, 12 - Zionsville IN
  54. 133.4 - 18:11 - Sophia Hoersten, 12 - Hilliard Davidson OH
  55. 133.4 - 18:11 - Brooke Johnston, 9 - Lake Zurich IL
  56. 133.3 - 18:11 - Savanna Richards, 10 - Lake (Uniontown) OH
  57. 133.3 - 18:12 - Brenna Cohoon, 12 - Downers Grove (South) IL
  58. 133.2 - 18:12 - Sarah Forsyth, 10 - Ann Arbor Pioneer MI
  59. 133.1 - 18:12 - Maryam Sheena, 12 - Walled Lake Western MI
  60. 133.0 - 18:12 - Lauren Kiley, 10 - Plymouth MI
  61. 132.9 - 18:13 - Nora Wollen, 11 - Oak Park-River Forest IL
  62. 132.8 - 18:13 - Lily Cridge, 9 - Indianapolis Bishop Chatard IN
  63. 132.7 - 18:13 - Madison Ebright, 11 - GR_Ottawa Hills MI
  64. 132.5 - 18:14 - Sophie Novak, 11 - Lake Orion MI
  65. 132.5 - 18:14 - Josephine Welin, 10 - Oak Park-River Forest IL
  66. 132.3 - 18:14 - Anna Perry, 10 - Eureka IL
  67. 132.3 - 18:15 - Maddie Ullom, 12 - Mason OH
  68. 132.1 - 18:15 - Helena Kleronomos, 11 - Yorkville IL
  69. 131.7 - 18:16 - Faith Duncan, 11 - Lebanon OH
  70. 131.5 - 18:17 - Avery Blaszak, 11 - Shaker Heights OH
  71. 131.4 - 18:17 - Daniella Santos, 12 - Hilliard Darby OH
  72. 131.2 - 18:18 - Audrey Allman, 10 - Glenbard West IL
  73. 131.2 - 18:18 - Abbie Draheim, 11 - East Lansing MI
  74. 131.0 - 18:18 - Elizabeth Vaughn, 12 - Oakwood OH
  75. 130.9 - 18:19 - Molly FitzPatrick, 11 - Barrington IL
  76. 130.8 - 18:19 - Bella Butler, 9 - Oakwood OH
  77. 130.6 - 18:19 - Miranda Stanhope, 12 - Badger OH
  78. 130.5 - 18:20 - Brooke Dixon, 12 - Brownsburg IN
  79. 130.5 - 18:20 - Riley Knoyle, 9 - Edwardsville IL
  80. 130.5 - 18:20 - Audrey Ginsberg, 10 - Mt. Prospect (Prospect) IL
  81. 130.5 - 18:20 - Addison Wiley, 10 - Huntington North IN
  82. 130.4 - 18:20 - Sophia Sandy, 12 - Metea Valley IL
  83. 130.4 - 18:20 - Anna Settle, 12 - Zionsville IN
  84. 130.1 - 18:21 - Dinah Gigandet, 11 - Troy OH
  85. 130.1 - 18:21 - Caylee Phillips, 12 - Van Wert OH
  86. 130.0 - 18:21 - Leah Socks, 12 - Traverse City Central MI
  87. 130.0 - 18:21 - Abby Olson, 12 - Holland West Ottawa MI
  88. 129.8 - 18:22 - Avery McLean, 11 - Traverse City Central MI
  89. 129.7 - 18:22 - Clare Nicholas, 10 - Wadsworth Senior OH
  90. 129.7 - 18:22 - Londyn Swenson, 11 - Plymouth MI
  91. 129.7 - 18:22 - Grace Tyson, 9 - Lafayette (Wildwood) MO
  92. 129.6 - 18:23 - Anna Harden, 9 - Hersey IL
  93. 129.5 - 18:23 - Alyssa Norris, 12 - Barrington IL
  94. 129.4 - 18:23 - Mia Gianfrancesco, 12 - Batavia IL
  95. 129.2 - 18:24 - Elka Machan, 12 - Coldwater MI
  96. 129.1 - 18:24 - Julia Dvorak, 12 - Homestead IN
  97. 129.0 - 18:24 - Yasmine Mansi, 11 - Northville MI
  98. 129.0 - 18:24 - Olivia Rosenstein, 12 - Urbana IL
  99. 129.0 - 18:24 - Melissa Jachim, 11 - Downers Grove (North) IL
  100. 128.9 - 18:25 - Marissa Dick, 12 - Raymore-Peculiar MO


LaVerne Gibson Team Time Course Record: 91:12.0 (Naperville North IL 2018)
LaVerne Gibson Individual Course Record: 17:00.6 (Judy Pendergast, Naperville North IL 2015)

Boys MW State Meet Power Merge **REVISED**

Here's a look at the top team and individual performances from all of the region's state meets. I'll include the scores for the 22-team power merge, as usual, plus an honorable mention list of the teams that just missed out on the final cut. I'll also list the Top-100 individuals, their ratings from their state meets, plus an equivalent time for NXR.

ROUGH 200.0 rating equivalents: 14:00 Illinois ~ 15:00 Missouri ~ 14:55 Michigan ~ 14:55 Ohio ~ 15:00 Indiana

Boys Top-22 Teams:
  1. 93 - St. Charles (East) IL - 78:06 - Illinois 3A Champion
  2. 94 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL - 78:16 - Illinois 3A Runner-up
  3. 220 - Sandburg IL - 79:20 - Illinois 3A Fourth Place
  4. 224 - Elmhurst (York) IL - 79:31 - Illinois 3A Third Place
  5. 262 - Raymore-Peculiar MO - 79:46 - Missouri Class 4 Champion
  6. 270 - Brighton MI - 79:46 - Michigan D1 Champion
  7. 272 - Oswego (East) IL - 79:58 - Illinois 3A Fifth Place
  8. 277 - St Xavier OH - 79:59 - Ohio D1 Champion
  9. 280 - Rock Bridge MO - 79:52 - Missouri Class 4 Third Place
  10. 281 - St. Louis University MO - 79:55 - Missouri Class 4 Runner-up
  11. 288 - Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran IN - 80:05 - Indiana Champion
  12. 293 - Mason OH - 80:14 - Ohio D1 Runner-up
  13. 293 - Maine South IL - 80:10 - Illinois 3A Sixth Place
  14. 294 - Woodridge OH - 80:15 - Ohio D2 Champion
  15. 315 - Naperville (North) IL - 80:17 - Illinois 3A Eighth Place
  16. 316 - Hersey IL - 79:37 - Illinois 3A Seventh Place
  17. 318 - Carmel IN - 80:30 - Indiana Runer-up
  18. 332 - Central (St. Joseph) MO - 80:32 - Missouri Class 4 Fifth Place
  19. 347 - Festus MO - 80:39 - Missouri Class 3 Champion
  20. 348 - Kirkwood MO - 80:42 - Missouri Class 4 Fourth Place
  21. 353 - Brebeuf Jesuit IN - 80:56 - Indiana Third Place
  22. 364 - Minooka IL - 80:53 - Illinois 3A Ninth Place
Honorable Mention (by state):
Illinois: Downers Grove (North), Winnetka (New Trier)
Indiana: Columbus North
Michigan: Clarkston, Dexter, Fremont, Traverse City Central
Missouri: Jefferson City, Liberty, Rockhurst, Staley

Boys Top-100 Individuals:
  1. 203.6 - 14:42 - Josh Methner, 12 - Hersey IL
  2. 197.9 - 14:59 - Carter Solomon, 12 - Plymouth MI
  3. 197.5 - 15:00 - Wesley Porter, 12 - Rockhurst MO
  4. 196.6 - 15:03 - Caleb Brown, 12 - Shelby Senior OH
  5. 196.3 - 15:04 - Brendan Favazza, 12 - Clarkston MI
  6. 194.2 - 15:10 - Tyler Cushing, 12 - Bolingbrook IL
  7. 194.1 - 15:11 - Evan Bishop, 12 - East Grand Rapids MI
  8. 194.0 - 15:11 - Matt Duvall, 12 - Pickerington North OH
  9. 193.9 - 15:11 - Mhalicki Bronson, 12 - Defiance OH
  10. 192.9 - 15:14 - Jack Crull, 12 - Helias Catholic MO
  11. 192.6 - 15:15 - Jack Spamer, 12 - Brighton MI
  12. 192.2 - 15:16 - Jake Allen, 12 - Naperville (North) IL
  13. 192.2 - 15:16 - Anthony Hancock, 12 - Dearborn Divine Child MI
  14. 191.9 - 15:17 - Nathan Moore, 11 - Lake (Uniontown) OH
  15. 191.9 - 15:17 - Matthew Hauser, 11 - Rock Bridge MO
  16. 191.3 - 15:19 - Braden Zaner, 12 - Raymore-Peculiar MO
  17. 191.1 - 15:19 - Ian Geisler, 12 - Huntley IL
  18. 190.4 - 15:21 - Gabriel Sanchez, 12 - Lowell IN
  19. 190.4 - 15:22 - Michael Hancock, 12 - Dearborn Divine Child MI
  20. 190.3 - 15:22 - Nathan Walker, 11 - Fremont MI
  21. 190.2 - 15:22 - Michael Rebello, 12 - Excelsior Springs MO
  22. 189.7 - 15:24 - Justin Iler, 12 - University School OH
  23. 189.1 - 15:25 - Jared Kreis, 12 - Lincoln-Way Central IL
  24. 189.1 - 15:25 - Drew Rogers, 10 - Herscher IL
  25. 189.0 - 15:26 - Lucas Guerra, 11 - Highland IN
  26. 188.7 - 15:27 - Bob Liking, 12 - St. Charles (East) IL
  27. 188.6 - 15:27 - Micah Wilson, 10 - St. Charles (East) IL
  28. 188.0 - 15:29 - Zachary Stewart, 12 - Brighton MI
  29. 187.8 - 15:29 - William Hauenstein, 12 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL
  30. 187.6 - 15:30 - Will Giblin, 12 - Sandburg IL
  31. 187.6 - 15:30 - Daniel Klysh, 12 - Elmhurst (York) IL
  32. 187.5 - 15:30 - Ben Giblin, 12 - Sandburg IL
  33. 187.5 - 15:30 - Jonathon Coffman, 12 - Herculaneum MO
  34. 187.2 - 15:31 - Luke Combs, 12 - Lapel IN
  35. 187.2 - 15:31 - Patrick Byrnes, 11 - Plymouth MI
  36. 187.1 - 15:31 - Noah Scott, 12 - St. Louis University MO
  37. 187.0 - 15:32 - Daelen Ackley, 10 - El Dorado Springs MO
  38. 186.8 - 15:32 - Elliott Cook, 12 - Dublin Jerome OH
  39. 186.3 - 15:34 - Nathan Mountain, 11 - St Xavier OH
  40. 186.2 - 15:34 - Hobbs Kessler, 11 - Ann Arbor Skyline MI
  41. 186.2 - 15:34 - Jesus Garcia, 11 - Zionsville IN
  42. 186.2 - 15:34 - Lucas Rackers, 12 - St. Louis University MO
  43. 186.1 - 15:34 - Riley Hough, 10 - Hartland MI
  44. 186.1 - 15:35 - Harper Moore, 12 - Pickerington North OH
  45. 186.0 - 15:35 - Pierce Cousins, 11 - Glenbard West IL
  46. 185.8 - 15:35 - David Zeller, 12 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL
  47. 185.5 - 15:36 - Aidan King, 12 - St. Charles (East) IL
  48. 185.3 - 15:37 - Jack Ehlert, 12 - Lyons Township IL
  49. 185.2 - 15:37 - Dillon Blake, 12 - Mundelein IL
  50. 185.2 - 15:37 - Reece Gibson, 12 - Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran IN
  51. 185.0 - 15:38 - Joey Kasch, 12 - Maine South IL
  52. 184.8 - 15:38 - Corey Pacernick, 12 - Lincolnshire (Stevenson) IL
  53. 184.7 - 15:38 - Ethan Koop, 11 - Marquette MO
  54. 184.7 - 15:39 - Tanner Williams, 12 - Worthington Kilbourne OH
  55. 184.6 - 15:39 - Jack Warner, 12 - Staley MO
  56. 184.5 - 15:39 - Luke Winkler, 12 - Staley MO
  57. 184.5 - 15:39 - Alex Dediu, 12 - Dublin Coffman OH
  58. 184.4 - 15:39 - Marc Baroncini, 11 - Perrysburg OH
  59. 184.2 - 15:40 - Dawson Smith, 12 - Rock Falls IL
  60. 184.2 - 15:40 - Matthew Singleton, 10 - Aurora OH
  61. 184.1 - 15:40 - Derek Amicon, 11 - Grandview Heights OH
  62. 184.1 - 15:40 - Bret Worley, 12 - Park Hill South MO
  63. 184.1 - 15:40 - Jason Polydoris, 11 - Highland Park IL
  64. 184.0 - 15:41 - Fiker Rosen, 10 - Quincy IL
  65. 184.0 - 15:41 - Jacob Myers, 11 - Lake Zurich IL
  66. 183.8 - 15:41 - Steven Zucca, 12 - St Ignatius OH
  67. 183.8 - 15:41 - Ethan Seng, 12 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL
  68. 183.8 - 15:41 - Alex Justus, 11 - Kings OH
  69. 183.8 - 15:41 - Collin Clark, 12 - Ladue Horton Watkins MO
  70. 183.7 - 15:41 - Dalton Kane, 12 - Plainfield IN
  71. 183.7 - 15:42 - Isaiah Spellman, 12 - Rock Bridge MO
  72. 183.4 - 15:42 - Charlie Smith, 12 - Antioch IL
  73. 183.4 - 15:42 - Nicolas Dovalovsky, 11 - Neuqua Valley IL
  74. 183.4 - 15:43 - Izaiah Steury, 10 - Angola IN
  75. 183.3 - 15:43 - Demetrius Snellenberger, 12 - East Canton OH
  76. 183.3 - 15:43 - Sam Duncan, 12 - Lebanon OH
  77. 183.2 - 15:43 - Hunter Jones, 9 - Benzie Central MI
  78. 183.2 - 15:43 - Samuel Travis, 11 - Liberty North MO
  79. 183.2 - 15:43 - Zach Benziger, 11 - Aurora (Waubonsie Valley) IL
  80. 183.2 - 15:43 - Jack Kovach, 12 - Brebeuf Jesuit IN
  81. 183.1 - 15:43 - Ryan Mata, 12 - Liberty MO
  82. 183.1 - 15:43 - Luke Schildmeyer, 11 - St. Charles (East) IL
  83. 183.0 - 15:43 - Jack Wilson, 12 - Romeo MI
  84. 183.0 - 15:44 - Braxton Tate, 12 - Galion OH
  85. 183.0 - 15:44 - William Minnette, 12 - Saline MI
  86. 183.0 - 15:44 - Joseph Dawson, 11 - Webb City MO
  87. 182.9 - 15:44 - Spencer Werner, 10 - Loyola Academy IL
  88. 182.9 - 15:44 - Anthony Maida, 12 - Chicago (Jones) IL
  89. 182.7 - 15:44 - Genesio Christofanelli, 12 - Crown Point IN
  90. 182.6 - 15:45 - Royce Fisher, 12 - Fort Osage MO
  91. 182.5 - 15:45 - Jacob Kluckhohn, 12 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL
  92. 182.5 - 15:45 - Sam Lange, 12 - Morton IL
  93. 182.4 - 15:45 - Aiden Amshoff, 10 - Mason OH
  94. 182.4 - 15:45 - Thomas Andersen, 11 - Parkway West MO
  95. 182.4 - 15:45 - Jay Dworak, 11 - Joliet (Central) IL
  96. 182.4 - 15:45 - Luke Perelli, 12 - Detroit Catholic Central MI
  97. 182.2 - 15:46 - Takumi Ford, 11 - Bellbrook OH
  98. 182.2 - 15:46 - Sean Carney, 11 - Hilliard Darby OH
  99. 182.2 - 15:46 - Brock Wooderson, 11 - Blue Springs MO
  100. 182.1 - 15:46 - Bryce Conley, 12 - Tippecanoe OH

LaVerne Gibson Course Team Time Record: 77:44.2 (Neuqua Valley IL 2016)
LaVerne Gibson Course Individual Record: 14:48.2 (Futsum Zeinasellassie, North Central IN 2011)

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Girls NXR Northwest Projection

Here's the race projection, based ONLY on their last meet ran (e.g. State for almost everyone, or State Qualifier meet if they didn't qualify or DNF at state, etc.). This is using strictly the entry list, so it is a little different from the state merge in that some teams subbed some runners in/out. I didn't include two runners: one that hasn't run a race (to my knowledge) this year at all, and another who is probably Hawaii Baptist's #7 but didn't run at state (because I'm not familiar enough with the Hawaii courses to project based on any other race).

Times are set to what is typical of the Eagle Island course when under good conditions.

Also, please keep in mind: these times are based off of ratings that are intentionally left ROUGH -- I round the rating estimates to the nearest 5 seconds, so don't consider these scores or times to be nearly exacting -- ideally they are within 5 seconds of eachother before you take race-to-race variance into account, which could be a 30-50 point swing for teams that have all 5 runners in the middle of the pack. ... in other words, while North Central may appear to come out as the favorite, it is more accurate to consider them "Co-Favorites" with Summit for the Championship (just taking that expected margin of error into account while assuming I'm not over/undervaluing either state meet -- which is far from a certainty, as this isn't remotely an exact science -- then NC should score anywhere from 61-81 points while Summit should score anywhere from 69-102 ... that is plenty of overlap before you even begin to consider one having having a better/worse day than the other when they finally meet on the course! And if I happen to be overvaluing the Washington state meet by only 5 seconds, the projected scores would be virtually even at 83-84 before taking into account Oregon State's margin of error ... in other words, these two teams ran VERY similarly last week), and next to nothing separating #4 Eagle from #8 Bozeman, despite how the scores appear.

Girls Teams:
  1. 72 - North Central WA - 91:05
  2. 85 - Summit OR - 91:23
  3. 126 - Boise ID - 93:21
  4. 169 - Eagle ID - 93:02
  5. 193 - Jesuit OR - 93:45
  6. 195 - Timberline (Boise) ID - 94:23
  7. 196 - Lincoln OR - 93:54
  8. 209 - Bozeman MT - 94:16
  9. 252 - Hellgate MT - 95:12
  10. 261 - Post Falls ID - 95:00
  11. 323 - Mountain View ID - 96:32
  12. 348 - Helena MT - 96:40
  13. 354 - Tahoma WA - 97:00
  14. 360 - South Eugene OR - 96:50
  15. 392 - Eastlake WA - 97:46
  16. 396 - Redmond WA - 98:52
  17. 396 - Sunset OR - 98:11
  18. 417 - Ellensburg WA - 98:48
  19. 454 - Hood River Valley OR - 98:57
  20. 481 - Wilson OR - 99:31
  21. 509 - Hawaii Baptist Academy HI - 99:42
  22. 590 - Arlington WA - 101:29

Girls Individuals:
  1. 17:16 - Sydney Thorvaldson, 11 - Unattached WY
  2. 17:32 - Fiona Max, 12 - Summit OR
  3. 17:36 - Mattalyn Geddes, 12 - Unattached ID
  4. 17:42 - Kate Peters, 9 - Lincoln OR
  5. 17:44 - Julia David Smith, 11 - Unattached WA
  6. 17:44 - Allie Janke, 11 - North Central WA
  7. 17:48 - Lizzie Dildine, 11 - Eagle ID
  8. 17:52 - Sydney Shanahan, 12 - Post Falls ID
  9. 17:52 - Teaghan Knox, 10 - Summit OR
  10. 17:56 - Kylie Hartnett, 10 - Helena MT
  11. 17:57 - Alaina Stone, 12 - Unattached WA
  12. 17:57 - Ashley LaJocies, 12 - Eagle ID
  13. 17:57 - Chloe Foerster, 10 - Jesuit OR
  14. 17:59 - Erinn Hill, 12 - North Central WA
  15. 18:09 - Amelu Ruff, 12 - North Central WA
  16. 18:10 - Terra Trom, 12 - Bozeman MT
  17. 18:10 - Abby Kendrick, 11 - Hellgate MT
  18. 18:16 - Gabby Martin, 10 - Unattached WA
  19. 18:18 - Madison Elmore, 12 - South Eugene OR
  20. 18:19 - Kate Simmons, 12 - Unattached WA
  21. 18:21 - Samantha Wood, 10 - Post Falls ID
  22. 18:22 - Brynnli Poulsen, 11 - Unattached MT
  23. 18:24 - Alexis Kebbe, 12 - Jesuit OR
  24. 18:25 - Elena Vandersloot, 12 - Unattached MT
  25. 18:27 - Kaiya Robertson, 10 - Unattached OR
  26. 18:28 - Autumn Ost, 11 - Unattached OR
  27. 18:30 - Marie Taylor, 12 - North Central WA
  28. 18:31 - Kaitlyn Gearin, 12 - Unattached OR
  29. 18:33 - Rosina Machu, 11 - Boise ID
  30. 18:34 - Mikella Tobin, 10 - Boise ID
  31. 18:34 - Sage Brooks, 11 - Hellgate MT
  32. 18:35 - Leah Holmgren, 12 - Ellensburg WA
  33. 18:35 - Isabel Max, 12 - Summit OR
  34. 18:37 - Sophie McManus, 11 - Unattached ID
  35. 18:37 - Lucy Huelskamp, 12 - Sunset OR
  36. 18:39 - Jamie Hamlin, 10 - Boise ID
  37. 18:39 - Riley Cash, 10 - Lincoln OR
  38. 18:40 - Molly Elliott, 12 - Boise ID
  39. 18:40 - Rebekka Bruland, 11 - Timberline (Boise) ID
  40. 18:41 - Ellie Gard, 12 - Unattached WA
  41. 18:41 - Roz Slichko, 11 - Unattached WA
  42. 18:41 - Morgan French, 12 - Mountain View ID
  43. 18:41 - Natalie Ruzauskas, 10 - Unattached WA
  44. 18:42 - Annelies Quinton, 11 - Unattached OR
  45. 18:42 - Barrett Justema, 9 - Summit OR
  46. 18:42 - Magdalene Williams, 10 - Summit OR
  47. 18:43 - Naomi Smith, 12 - Unattached WA
  48. 18:43 - Mia Hill, 12 - North Central WA
  49. 18:43 - Brinlee Bryson, 12 - Eagle ID
  50. 18:45 - Alexia Corona, 10 - Unattached ID
  51. 18:46 - Jasper Fievet, 11 - Summit OR
  52. 18:48 - Sylvia Ingram, 11 - Wilson OR
  53. 18:49 - Anika Thompson, 11 - Unattached OR
  54. 18:49 - Sage Martin, 12 - Unattached ID
  55. 18:49 - Isabella Brickner, 12 - Timberline (Boise) ID
  56. 18:49 - Samantha Prusse, 12 - Unattached OR
  57. 18:50 - Lexy Halladay, 12 - Mountain View ID
  58. 18:51 - Mia Kane, 11 - Lincoln OR
  59. 18:51 - Aayiana Fuller, 12 - Unattached WA
  60. 18:52 - Grace Gilbreth, 11 - Bozeman MT
  61. 18:52 - Meri Dunford, 12 - Unattached WA
  62. 18:53 - Abigail Whitman, 12 - Unattached WY
  63. 18:55 - Annika Zuschlag, 10 - Boise ID
  64. 18:55 - Lili Hargreaves, 11 - Redmond WA
  65. 18:56 - Chloe Connolly, 11 - Redmond WA
  66. 18:56 - Ellie Baxter, 11 - Unattached WA
  67. 18:56 - Charlie Duff, 12 - Timberline (Boise) ID
  68. 18:56 - Kaleena Narus, 10 - Timberline (Boise) ID
  69. 18:57 - Halle Jenkins, 12 - Unattached WA
  70. 18:57 - Alyssa Britton, 11 - Eagle ID
  71. 18:57 - Kate Laurent, 10 - Ellensburg WA
  72. 18:57 - Molly Grant, 11 - Jesuit OR
  73. 18:58 - Emily Foote, 12 - Unattached OR
  74. 18:58 - Emily Van Valkenburg, 10 - Eastlake WA
  75. 18:58 - Stella Skovborg, 12 - Summit OR
  76. 18:59 - Lydia Nance, 9 - Boise ID
  77. 19:00 - Natalie McCormick, 11 - Bozeman MT
  78. 19:00 - Lauren Larson, 11 - Unattached WA
  79. 19:00 - Paige Wiley, 9 - Sunset OR
  80. 19:00 - Margot Desmond, 12 - Unattached OR
  81. 19:02 - Anastasia Russell, 11 - Timberline (Boise) ID
  82. 19:04 - Emma Arceo, 10 - Unattached WA
  83. 19:05 - Ella Borsheim, 10 - Unattached WA
  84. 19:06 - Alex Moore, 12 - Bozeman MT
  85. 19:06 - Josephine Dickinson, 12 - Hood River Valley OR
  86. 19:06 - Olivia Moye, 9 - Unattached OR
  87. 19:07 - Isabel Homsi, 12 - Lincoln OR
  88. 19:08 - Lucia Mccormick, 9 - Bozeman MT
  89. 19:08 - Brooklyn Lowry, 10 - Mountain View ID
  90. 19:08 - Theresa Barnhart, 10 - Tahoma WA
  91. 19:09 - Sophia Dahl, 9 - Redmond WA
  92. 19:10 - Maggie Bennett, 9 - Jesuit OR
  93. 19:10 - Jasmine Wang, 12 - Sunset OR
  94. 19:11 - Riley Moore, 11 - Bozeman MT
  95. 19:14 - Frances Dickinson, 12 - Hood River Valley OR
  96. 19:15 - Nicole DeHerrera, 12 - Unattached WA
  97. 19:16 - Faith Martinez, 10 - Tahoma WA
  98. 19:17 - Sunitha Black, 11 - Unattached OR
  99. 19:17 - Naya Wrenn, 9 - Jesuit OR
  100. 19:18 - Kaybree Christensen, 11 - Unattached ID
  101. 19:20 - Belle Johnson, 10 - Unattached WA
  102. 19:20 - Odessa Zentz, 10 - Helena MT
  103. 19:20 - Hannah Seubert, 10 - South Eugene OR
  104. 19:21 - Ashley Kodama, 9 - Hawaii Baptist Academy HI
  105. 19:21 - Sabrina Bryant, 12 - Hellgate MT
  106. 19:23 - Ava Hagwell, 9 - Eastlake WA
  107. 19:23 - Anika Nau, 9 - Tahoma WA
  108. 19:24 - Lucy Tsai, 12 - Unattached OR
  109. 19:25 - Karlee Christensen, 11 - Unattached ID
  110. 19:25 - Abby Stamper, 10 - Timberline (Boise) ID
  111. 19:25 - Andrea Cernuda, 11 - Boise ID
  112. 19:27 - Malia Dickhens, 10 - Unattached HI
  113. 19:29 - Camryn Mock, 11 - Unattached WA
  114. 19:31 - Sage Aguilar, 10 - Tahoma WA
  115. 19:31 - Gabriella Prusse, 10 - Unattached OR
  116. 19:32 - Bella Distante, 11 - Unattached WA
  117. 19:32 - Rylie Schoenfeld, 10 - Helena MT
  118. 19:32 - Katie Munro, 12 - Hellgate MT
  119. 19:32 - Jennifer Tsai, 10 - Unattached OR
  120. 19:33 - Bailey Shanahan, 12 - Post Falls ID
  121. 19:33 - Ava Earl, 11 - Unattached AK
  122. 19:35 - Izzy Munro, 10 - Hellgate MT
  123. 19:35 - Ellie Cook, 10 - Lincoln OR
  124. 19:35 - Anayah Brown, 11 - Post Falls ID
  125. 19:36 - Rylee Leishman, 9 - Ellensburg WA
  126. 19:37 - Afton Fillmore, 10 - Eagle ID
  127. 19:37 - Nyah Allen, 10 - Eastlake WA
  128. 19:38 - Ella Harris, 11 - Eagle ID
  129. 19:38 - Alyssa Flindt, 9 - Eastlake WA
  130. 19:39 - Anna Peters, 9 - Post Falls ID
  131. 19:39 - Petra Schuster, 9 - Wilson OR
  132. 19:40 - Bailey Bingham, 12 - Mountain View ID
  133. 19:41 - Linnea Onushco, 10 - Helena MT
  134. 19:42 - Cydney Sanchez, 10 - Unattached WA
  135. 19:42 - Darwin Hanson, 10 - Unattached WA
  136. 19:42 - Lulu Brady, 11 - Tahoma WA
  137. 19:42 - Zoe Quach, 11 - Jesuit OR
  138. 19:43 - Sophia Stubblefield, 10 - Unattached OR
  139. 19:43 - Kate Bouse, 11 - South Eugene OR
  140. 19:43 - Gretchen Schwartz, 11 - South Eugene OR
  141. 19:44 - Tatum Witter, 11 - Unattached AK
  142. 19:44 - Tsu-quin-da-ro Enyart, 10 - Lincoln OR
  143. 19:45 - Lottie Bromham, 12 - Hood River Valley OR
  144. 19:46 - Natalie Jack, 9 - Jesuit OR
  145. 19:46 - Anna Tavakolian, 10 - South Eugene OR
  146. 19:47 - Cameron Gupta, 9 - South Eugene OR
  147. 19:47 - Paige Hazen, 11 - South Eugene OR
  148. 19:47 - Karsyn Roldan, 10 - Timberline (Boise) ID
  149. 19:49 - Kacie Kwan, 12 - Hawaii Baptist Academy HI
  150. 19:50 - Ellie Hull, 11 - Bozeman MT
  151. 19:50 - Lindsay Sasaki, 12 - Hawaii Baptist Academy HI
  152. 19:52 - Iris Swanberg, 10 - Hellgate MT
  153. 19:53 - Hannah Hernandez, 12 - Unattached OR
  154. 19:53 - Brooklyn Meehan, 11 - Tahoma WA
  155. 19:53 - Anne Louise Fernandez, 12 - Arlington WA
  156. 19:54 - Kynzie DeLeon, 12 - Unattached WA
  157. 19:58 - Madison Lee, 11 - North Central WA
  158. 20:00 - Sara Sanders, 9 - Tahoma WA
  159. 20:02 - Amanda Nygard, 11 - Unattached WA
  160. 20:10 - Ariya Mathrawala, 10 - Eastlake WA
  161. 20:10 - Lauren Lehr, 12 - Redmond WA
  162. 20:11 - Lindsey Jaeger, 11 - Hawaii Baptist Academy HI
  163. 20:11 - Kylee Wetzel, 10 - Helena MT
  164. 20:11 - Chloe Bullock, 11 - Hood River Valley OR
  165. 20:11 - Kaley Bohl, 9 - Post Falls ID
  166. 20:13 - Brooklynne Erickson, 11 - Mountain View ID
  167. 20:14 - Mary Reinbold, 12 - Unattached AK
  168. 20:14 - Charlotte Richman, 10 - Wilson OR
  169. 20:18 - Paige Nelson, 12 - Arlington WA
  170. 20:19 - Annika Deazley, 11 - Wilson OR
  171. 20:21 - Avery Lee, 9 - Mountain View ID
  172. 20:21 - Kortlyn Lowry, 12 - Mountain View ID
  173. 20:24 - Maggie Delaney, 12 - Arlington WA
  174. 20:24 - Hannah Johnson, 12 - Arlington WA
  175. 20:26 - Alyssa Plant, 12 - Helena MT
  176. 20:29 - Claudia Wolf, 10 - Eastlake WA
  177. 20:29 - Kendall Carter, 9 - North Central WA
  178. 20:30 - Kate Rosson, 11 - Arlington WA
  179. 20:31 - Mari Monico, 11 - Hawaii Baptist Academy HI
  180. 20:31 - Avery Poulsen, 12 - Wilson OR
  181. 20:32 - Ashley Lotzkar, 10 - Eastlake WA
  182. 20:37 - Natalie Taylor, 11 - Sunset OR
  183. 20:40 - Annika Kendrick, 9 - Hellgate MT
  184. 20:41 - Lucy Hennessy, 11 - Hood River Valley OR
  185. 20:42 - Keira Coye, 11 - Unattached OR
  186. 20:47 - Eva McIlraith, 10 - Sunset OR
  187. 20:49 - Madison Thompson, 12 - Ellensburg WA
  188. 20:50 - Caley Chun, 9 - Hawaii Baptist Academy HI
  189. 20:50 - Samhita Tovinkere, 11 - Sunset OR
  190. 20:50 - Payton Smith, 10 - Unattached AK
  191. 20:51 - Holly Fromherz, 9 - Ellensburg WA
  192. 20:54 - Celia Acosta, 12 - Hood River Valley OR
  193. 21:01 - Tailer Cochran, 12 - Arlington WA
  194. 21:02 - Leah Holding, 11 - Post Falls ID
  195. 21:07 - Mieka McKnight, 10 - Hood River Valley OR
  196. 21:08 - Lexi Erdahl, 9 - Helena MT
  197. 21:15 - Blake Chennai, 12 - Sunset OR
  198. 21:15 - Autumn Darrah, 12 - Wilson OR
  199. 21:17 - Vivian Potong, 12 - Arlington WA
  200. 21:17 - Breanna Day, 12 - Unattached AK
  201. 21:18 - Alex Hall, 10 - Ellensburg WA
  202. 21:21 - Sohana Monson, 9 - Wilson OR
  203. 21:42 - Neha Ramanath, 12 - Redmond WA

Also, here's a link to the updated Eagle Island All-Time list for reference.

Team Time Course Record: 91:26.1 (Summit OR 2018)
Individual Course Record: 17:13.47 (Camilla Noe, Bozeman MT 2017)

Team Time Top-25 Cut-off (roughly a potential At-Large team): 94:27.72
Individual Top-50 Cut-off (roughly a potential At-Large individual): 17:55.5

(BTW, by "Potential", I mean "MIGHT get some consideration" -- not that they will or even should get an At-Large spot)

As you can see, 8 girls teams are projected to run a team time as good as what might puts them in consideration for an At-Large spot... which is VERY unusual for a girls field anywhere in the nation. This field is so loaded it is absurd!

Boys NXR Northwest Projection

Here's the race projection, based ONLY on their last meet ran (e.g. State for almost everyone, or State Qualifier meet if they didn't qualify or DNF at state, etc.). This is using strictly the entry list, so it is a little different from the state merge in that some teams subbed some runners in/out.

Times are set to what is typical of the Eagle Island course when under good conditions.

Also, please keep in mind: these times are based off of ratings that are intentionally left ROUGH -- I round the rating estimates to the nearest 5 seconds, so don't consider this scores or times as nearly exacting -- ideally they are within 5 seconds of eachother before you take race-to-race variance into account, which could be a 40-60 point swing for teams that have all 5 runners in the middle of the pack. ... in other words, while Camas and Kamiakin are the favorites to qualify, #3-12 is fairly wide open.

Boys Teams:
  1. 110 - Camas WA - 79:19
  2. 129 - Kamiakin WA - 79:36
  3. 176 - Idaho Falls ID - 79:57
  4. 184 - Bishop Blanchet WA - 80:19
  5. 193 - Franklin OR - 80:20
  6. 196 - Ashland OR - 79:54
  7. 213 - Tahoma WA - 80:35
  8. 232 - Lewis and Clark WA - 80:22
  9. 238 - Kuna ID - 80:55
  10. 242 - Preston ID - 80:58
  11. 253 - Central Valley WA - 80:58
  12. 255 - North Central WA - 81:01
  13. 293 - Jesuit OR - 81:40
  14. 326 - Bozeman MT - 82:01
  15. 333 - Central Catholic OR - 82:05
  16. 341 - Sherwood OR - 82:11
  17. 351 - Hellgate MT - 82:22
  18. 386 - Timberline (Boise) ID - 82:31
  19. 404 - Sunset OR - 82:52
  20. 417 - South Eugene OR - 82:59
  21. 557 - Cheyenne Central WY - 85:45
  22. 567 - Sheridan WY - 84:48

Boys Individuals:
  1. 15:05 - Evan Holland, 12 - Ashland OR
  2. 15:18 - Wil Smith, 12 - Lewis and Clark WA
  3. 15:19 - Nathan Green, 11 - Unattached ID
  4. 15:25 - Jacob Easton, 12 - Unattached WA
  5. 15:27 - Tyler Hunter, 12 - Central Valley WA
  6. 15:28 - Zac Bright, 11 - Idaho Falls ID
  7. 15:31 - Russell Richardson, 12 - Kuna ID
  8. 15:33 - Evan Jenkins, 10 - Camas WA
  9. 15:33 - Isaac Teeples, 10 - Kamiakin WA
  10. 15:36 - Mitchell Athay, 11 - Idaho Falls ID
  11. 15:37 - Jonas Bears, 12 - Unattached WA
  12. 15:37 - Caleb Hamblin, 12 - Unattached ID
  13. 15:38 - Sam Geiger, 11 - Camas WA
  14. 15:39 - Jonas Price, 12 - Unattached WA
  15. 15:39 - Cooper Laird, 12 - Unattached WA
  16. 15:39 - Ahmed Ibrahim, 12 - Unattached OR
  17. 15:39 - Eliason Kabasenche, 12 - Unattached WA
  18. 15:40 - Shea Mattson, 12 - Unattached WA
  19. 15:40 - Ethan Martin, 12 - Tahoma WA
  20. 15:41 - Patrick North, 12 - Lewis and Clark WA
  21. 15:41 - Kai Gundlach, 12 - Bishop Blanchet WA
  22. 15:41 - Aidan Palmer, 12 - Franklin OR
  23. 15:43 - Hayden Bostrom, 11 - Timberline (Boise) ID
  24. 15:43 - Jarred Barnes, 12 - Unattached WA
  25. 15:43 - Charlie Robertson, 11 - Franklin OR
  26. 15:43 - Stanford Smith, 12 - Kamiakin WA
  27. 15:44 - Ethan Coleman, 10 - Unattached WA
  28. 15:45 - Isaac Morris, 12 - North Central WA
  29. 15:45 - Quincy Norman, 12 - Unattached OR
  30. 15:45 - Riley Reid, 12 - Preston ID
  31. 15:46 - Peter Visser, 11 - Unattached WY
  32. 15:47 - Bryce Cerkowniak, 11 - Unattached WA
  33. 15:49 - Arlo Davis, 12 - Ashland OR
  34. 15:49 - Will Dixon, 11 - Unattached ID
  35. 15:49 - Nathan Carter, 12 - North Central WA
  36. 15:53 - Brian Martinez, 12 - Tahoma WA
  37. 15:54 - Luc Utheza, 12 - Camas WA
  38. 15:54 - Logan Hunt, 12 - Unattached ID
  39. 15:54 - Tristian Merchant, 11 - Unattached AK
  40. 15:55 - Paul Talens, 11 - Unattached WA
  41. 15:55 - Sam Jeppsen, 11 - Preston ID
  42. 15:55 - William Schneider, 9 - Bishop Blanchet WA
  43. 15:55 - Ryan Schumacher, 11 - Jesuit OR
  44. 15:56 - Reed Pryor, 11 - Ashland OR
  45. 15:56 - Simon Hill, 12 - Unattached MT
  46. 15:57 - Danny Maxwell, 12 - Lewis and Clark WA
  47. 15:57 - Abdinasir Hussein, 12 - Unattached OR
  48. 15:58 - Nicky DiMartino, 12 - Bishop Blanchet WA
  49. 15:58 - Bas Holland, 12 - Unattached WA
  50. 15:58 - Ian Curtis, 12 - Hellgate MT
  51. 15:58 - Andrew Payton, 12 - Unattached OR
  52. 15:59 - Mateo Althouse, 11 - Unattached OR
  53. 16:01 - Liam Kaperick, 11 - South Eugene OR
  54. 16:02 - Johnathon Simmons, 11 - Unattached ID
  55. 16:02 - Sean Westerhout, 11 - Unattached WA
  56. 16:03 - Jackson Buffonge, 11 - Franklin OR
  57. 16:03 - Austin Gappa, 12 - Unattached WA
  58. 16:03 - Andrew Holladay, 12 - Kamiakin WA
  59. 16:04 - Cameron Stein, 11 - Ashland OR
  60. 16:05 - Spencer Twyman, 12 - Camas WA
  61. 16:06 - Elijah Lopez, 12 - Unattached WA
  62. 16:06 - Edison Leffler, 10 - Preston ID
  63. 16:06 - Aaron VanValkenburg, 12 - Unattached WA
  64. 16:06 - Micah Murphy, 12 - Unattached WA
  65. 16:07 - Caleb Kartchner, 11 - Central Valley WA
  66. 16:07 - Alex Wright, 11 - Central Valley WA
  67. 16:07 - Andrew Larson, 12 - Kamiakin WA
  68. 16:08 - Sam Anderson, 12 - Unattached WA
  69. 16:08 - Seth Babbel, 12 - Unattached ID
  70. 16:09 - Austin Weese, 12 - Camas WA
  71. 16:09 - Josue Corona-Solis, 12 - Central Catholic OR
  72. 16:09 - Ignatius Fitzgerald, 11 - Hellgate MT
  73. 16:10 - Jeret Gillingham, 12 - Unattached OR
  74. 16:10 - Jax Weide, 12 - Kamiakin WA
  75. 16:11 - Trevor Stephen, 12 - Cheyenne Central WY
  76. 16:11 - Joseph Ereaux, 11 - Idaho Falls ID
  77. 16:11 - Grayson Wilcott, 10 - Kamiakin WA
  78. 16:12 - Leif Swanson, 11 - North Central WA
  79. 16:12 - Connor Griffith, 12 - Unattached WA
  80. 16:13 - Max Louth, 12 - Kuna ID
  81. 16:14 - William Hodgson, 12 - Bozeman MT
  82. 16:14 - Charlie North, 10 - Franklin OR
  83. 16:14 - Porter Elison, 11 - Idaho Falls ID
  84. 16:14 - Thomas Osborne, 12 - Sherwood OR
  85. 16:14 - Cameron Stuard, 11 - Tahoma WA
  86. 16:15 - Mason Watamura, 11 - Unattached WA
  87. 16:15 - Collin Beyer, 11 - Sunset OR
  88. 16:15 - Alex Kiefer, 11 - Tahoma WA
  89. 16:15 - Payson Bingham, 12 - Unattached ID
  90. 16:15 - Spencer Hardy, 12 - Central Catholic OR
  91. 16:16 - Daniel Dixon, 12 - Unattached ID
  92. 16:16 - Rob McManus, 11 - Unattached WA
  93. 16:18 - Finn Bentler, 12 - Unattached MT
  94. 16:19 - Jonas Larson, 12 - Jesuit OR
  95. 16:20 - Adam Flood, 12 - Bishop Blanchet WA
  96. 16:20 - Lukas Horejsi, 12 - Hellgate MT
  97. 16:20 - Bennet Jackson, 12 - Unattached OR
  98. 16:20 - McKay Hunter, 12 - Unattached MT
  99. 16:21 - Hyrum Nelson, 12 - Unattached AK
  100. 16:21 - Caleb Hornung, 11 - Unattached MT
  101. 16:22 - William Richardson, 10 - Kuna ID
  102. 16:22 - Michael Maiorano, 10 - Unattached OR
  103. 16:23 - Colter Kirkland, 10 - Unattached MT
  104. 16:23 - Parker Cunningham, 11 - Kuna ID
  105. 16:23 - Owen Smith, 12 - Unattached MT
  106. 16:23 - Declan O'Scannlain, 12 - Jesuit OR
  107. 16:24 - Tyler Schmautz, 12 - Unattached MT
  108. 16:24 - Josh Harrison, 12 - Preston ID
  109. 16:24 - Ismael Alvares, 11 - Sherwood OR
  110. 16:24 - David Cummings, 12 - Sunset OR
  111. 16:25 - Tyler Graff, 10 - Bishop Blanchet WA
  112. 16:25 - Anders Beil, 11 - Central Catholic OR
  113. 16:25 - Jared Harden, 11 - Unattached ID
  114. 16:26 - Griffin May, 12 - Bozeman MT
  115. 16:26 - John Schuler, 10 - Jesuit OR
  116. 16:26 - Ryver Mills, 11 - Kuna ID
  117. 16:26 - Stirling Marshall-Pryde, 11 - Bozeman MT
  118. 16:27 - Xander Danenhauer, 11 - Bozeman MT
  119. 16:27 - Connor Gardner, 11 - Unattached ID
  120. 16:27 - Noah Phillips, 12 - Unattached WA
  121. 16:27 - Jeffery Rogers, 10 - Sherwood OR
  122. 16:28 - Quinn Wilcox, 11 - Unattached OR
  123. 16:28 - Seth Wyatt, 12 - Bozeman MT
  124. 16:28 - Isaac Corgatelli, 12 - Idaho Falls ID
  125. 16:30 - Koshi Schunter, 10 - North Central WA
  126. 16:30 - Nate Hicken, 12 - Sherwood OR
  127. 16:31 - Jonathan Lagonegro, 12 - Kamiakin WA
  128. 16:31 - Oscar Roering, 11 - South Eugene OR
  129. 16:31 - Sean Janecko, 10 - Timberline (Boise) ID
  130. 16:32 - Michael Lewis, 12 - Bishop Blanchet WA
  131. 16:33 - Jesse Dimich-Louvet, 12 - Unattached MT
  132. 16:33 - Alex King, 11 - Sunset OR
  133. 16:33 - Matthew Bruneel, 12 - Tahoma WA
  134. 16:34 - Carson Wright, 11 - Timberline (Boise) ID
  135. 16:35 - James Tanner, 10 - Central Valley WA
  136. 16:36 - Joseph Halsey, 12 - Central Catholic OR
  137. 16:36 - Jaron Homer, 12 - Sherwood OR
  138. 16:37 - Jonathan Wheeler, 12 - Bozeman MT
  139. 16:37 - Jack Bennett, 11 - Jesuit OR
  140. 16:37 - Zachary Traul, 12 - Unattached OR
  141. 16:39 - Daniel Fajardo, 11 - Franklin OR
  142. 16:39 - Ethan Crawford, 11 - Lewis and Clark WA
  143. 16:40 - Julian Kingery, 10 - Central Catholic OR
  144. 16:41 - John Romano-Olsen, 12 - Bishop Blanchet WA
  145. 16:41 - Noah Hoefer, 12 - Unattached AK
  146. 16:41 - Mason Gerwig, 12 - Sunset OR
  147. 16:42 - Ethan Sheneman, 10 - Central Valley WA
  148. 16:42 - Jacob Frentheway, 10 - Cheyenne Central WY
  149. 16:43 - James Crabtree, 10 - Sherwood OR
  150. 16:44 - Jackson Seubert, 10 - South Eugene OR
  151. 16:45 - Zach Kness, 10 - North Central WA
  152. 16:45 - Henry Anderson, 11 - South Eugene OR
  153. 16:46 - Austin Akers, 9 - Sheridan WY
  154. 16:46 - Ethan Sturdivant, 10 - Sherwood OR
  155. 16:46 - Jacob Packwood, 12 - Timberline (Boise) ID
  156. 16:47 - Brian Bowers, 10 - Lewis and Clark WA
  157. 16:47 - Alex Garber, 12 - Sheridan WY
  158. 16:48 - Garrett Hale, 10 - Preston ID
  159. 16:49 - Sam Kindl, 11 - Lewis and Clark WA
  160. 16:50 - Dallin Gardiner, 12 - Unattached AK
  161. 16:50 - Caden Hildenbrand, 10 - Jesuit OR
  162. 16:51 - Micah Brauhn, 12 - North Central WA
  163. 16:53 - Aidan Alexander, 11 - Jesuit OR
  164. 16:53 - Charlie Black, 9 - Central Catholic OR
  165. 16:53 - Miles Colescott, 11 - Hellgate MT
  166. 16:56 - Jordan Hansen, 11 - Unattached WA
  167. 16:57 - Timothy Brown, 12 - Sheridan WY
  168. 16:57 - Charlie Stands, 12 - Timberline (Boise) ID
  169. 16:57 - Leland McAbee, 10 - Kuna ID
  170. 16:58 - Nate Tavakolian, 12 - South Eugene OR
  171. 16:59 - Logan Law, 9 - Unattached OR
  172. 16:59 - Carson Cummins, 12 - Sunset OR
  173. 17:00 - Kaleb Beloy, 12 - Unattached AK
  174. 17:00 - Henry Williams, 12 - Ashland OR
  175. 17:02 - Jameson Westhead, 12 - Central Catholic OR
  176. 17:02 - Renn Stearns, 11 - Hellgate MT
  177. 17:02 - Nathan Bennee, 11 - Kuna ID
  178. 17:03 - Isaac Dammeyer, 12 - Unattached AK
  179. 17:03 - Reynger Davidsavor, 10 - Preston ID
  180. 17:04 - Andrew Long, 11 - Timberline (Boise) ID
  181. 17:05 - Paul Beaven, 10 - Franklin OR
  182. 17:06 - Evan Bruce, 9 - Lewis and Clark WA
  183. 17:06 - Ethan Greiner, 10 - North Central WA
  184. 17:09 - Caleb Jerdon, 12 - Central Valley WA
  185. 17:09 - Eric Meyers, 12 - Central Valley WA
  186. 17:09 - Reese Charest, 10 - Sheridan WY
  187. 17:09 - David Standish, 11 - Sheridan WY
  188. 17:10 - Braden Kivisto, 10 - Cheyenne Central WY
  189. 17:10 - Dominic Manzo, 12 - Tahoma WA
  190. 17:13 - Joe Johns, 10 - Bozeman MT
  191. 17:13 - Carson Frawley, 10 - Camas WA
  192. 17:13 - Jack Clarke, 10 - Tahoma WA
  193. 17:14 - Heath Springman, 12 - Idaho Falls ID
  194. 17:15 - Ben Nichols, 12 - Sunset OR
  195. 17:18 - Dax Summers, 12 - Hellgate MT
  196. 17:20 - Vincent Senn, 10 - Ashland OR
  197. 17:21 - Jason Frentheway, 10 - Cheyenne Central WY
  198. 17:22 - Asher McKinnon, 10 - South Eugene OR
  199. 17:25 - Connor Hayward, 11 - Camas WA
  200. 17:28 - Blaine Johnson, 11 - Sheridan WY
  201. 17:31 - Lars Deboutte, 12 - Sunset OR
  202. 17:38 - Carter Steinmetz, 10 - Timberline (Boise) ID
  203. 17:43 - Aidan Duffield, 12 - Hellgate MT
  204. 17:57 - Dawson Leffler, 11 - Preston ID
  205. 17:59 - Miles Lehman-Winters, 12 - South Eugene OR
  206. 18:01 - Craig Barber, 11 - Franklin OR
  207. 18:07 - Nathan Stein, 9 - Ashland OR
  208. 18:11 - Wyatt Shaw, 12 - Sheridan WY
  209. 18:21 - Tristan Knueppel, 10 - Cheyenne Central WY
  210. 22:52 - Andrew Wehausen, 12 - Idaho Falls ID


Also, here's a link to the updated Eagle Island All-Time list for reference.

Team Time Course Record: 78:26.9 (Great Oak CA 2018)
Individual Course Record: 14:49.0 (Luke Puskedra, Judge Memorial UT 2007)

Team Time Top-25 Cut-off (roughly a potential At-Large team): 80:27.3
Individual Top-50 Cut-off (roughly a potential At-Large individual): 15:25.9


(BTW, by "Potential", I mean "MIGHT get some consideration" -- not that they will or even should get an At-Large spot)


The boys race also has about 6-8 teams that could be under the mark that might put them in At-Large consideration... the difference is, that is not unusual at all for the boys side in stronger regions. Still a pretty solid year for boys teams, but nowhere near the level of the girls.

Hawaii State Meet ratings

Since there is a Hawaii team competing at NXR Northwest, I decided to take a guess at the ratings for the Hawaii State meet from a couple of weeks ago. These are going to be more questionable than usual because Hawaii (even moreso than Alaska) is pretty separated from mainland US competition and I don't have nearly as good of a feel for how good the runners are, so take these ratings with a large grain of salt.

That being said... here's my estimates (200.0 ~ 15:40). I included some track PRs for select runners (note: they run 1500m/3k in Hawaii, so unless otherwise noted those are the distances being referenced).

Boys Teams:
  1. 56 - Punahou - 86:20.50 - 169.3 average
  2. 85 - Maui - 86:01.80 - 170.5 average
  3. 138 - Hawaii Baptist Academy - 89:35.20 - 156.9 average
  4. 141 - Seabury Hall - 89:16.70 - 158.1 average
  5. 197 - Kalani - 91:01.25 - 151.4 average
  6. 210 - Kamehameha - 91:51.91 - 148.2 average
  7. 244 - Waiakea - 92:19.17 - 146.4 average
  8. 248 - Radford - 92:07.57 - 147.2 average
  9. 251 - Island School - 92:18.33 - 146.5 average
  10. 293 - Pearl City - 93:36.34 - 141.5 average
  11. 307 - Kamehameha Hawaii - 93:41.77 - 141.2 average
  12. 319 - Moanalua - 93:31.23 - 141.8 average
  13. 319 - Hawaii Prep Academy - 93:24.04 - 142.3 average
  14. 324 - Kaua'i - 94:12.61 - 139.2 average
  15. 330 - Hanalani Schools - 93:12.05 - 143.1 average
  16. 352 - Kalaheo - 94:23.96 - 138.5 average
  17. 354 - Mililani - 94:41.84 - 137.3 average
  18. 363 - Kealakehe - 94:43.08 - 137.3 average
  19. 428 - Hilo - 97:15.09 - 127.5 average
  20. 487 - Campbell - 97:45.75 - 125.6 average
  21. 572 - Kea'au - 100:00.64 - 117.0 average
Boys Top-30 Individuals:
  1. 188.6 - Hunter Shields, 11 - 16:15.6 - Maui (ran 4:05.31 and 9:17.99 this spring)
  2. 187.4 - Adam Harder, 12 - 16:19.5 - Hanalani Schools (ran 4:11.13 and 9:12.80 this spring)
  3. 182.8 - Damon Wakefield, 12 - 16:34.0 - Maui (ran 4:09.65 and 9:14.49 this spring)
  4. 178.7 - Adam Hakola, 12 - 16:46.9 - Maui
  5. 177.1 - Andre Marin, 12 - 16:51.8 - Moanalua
  6. 176.3 - Joshua Lerner, 11 - 16:54.2 - Iolani
  7. 175.7 - Kanoa Blake, 9 - 16:56.3 - Hawaii Prep Academy
  8. 173.5 - Narayana Schneider, 12 - 17:02.9 - McKinley
  9. 172.3 - Connor Malinger, 10 - 17:06.8 - Hawaii Baptist Academy
  10. 172.1 - Cade Lehl, 12 - 17:07.4 - Punahou
  11. 171.4 - Alec Ankrum, 11 - 17:09.7 - Kealakehe
  12. 170.3 - Caden Lombard, 10 - 17:13.1 - Punahou
  13. 168.4 - Jordan Furuta, 10 - 17:19.0 - Punahou
  14. 168.3 - Cooper Baines, 11 - 17:19.4 - Punahou
  15. 168.2 - Kaulana Suzuki, 11 - 17:19.5 - Kalani
  16. 168.1 - Carlos Orona-Frias, 12 - 17:20.0 - Leilehua
  17. 167.7 - Ozzi Doherty, 11 - 17:21.3 - Maui Preparatory Academy
  18. 167.6 - John Marrack, 11 - 17:21.5 - Hilo
  19. 167.6 - Nicholas Pugliese, 9 - 17:21.7 - Punahou
  20. 167.3 - Parker Wagnild, 10 - 17:22.6 - Mid Pacific Institute
  21. 166.6 - Marcus Kamakaiwi, 12 - 17:24.7 - King Kekaulike
  22. 166.2 - Mathew Vickers, 12 - 17:25.9 - Island School
  23. 165.8 - Ben Zerr, 10 - 17:27.3 - Kalaheo
  24. 165.0 - Kaeo Keomaka, 10 - 17:29.7 - Seabury Hall
  25. 164.9 - Matthew Hoffman, 12 - 17:30.1 - Radford
  26. 163.9 - Cole Davidson, 11 - 17:33.0 - Seabury Hall
  27. 161.9 - Kai Merrill, 9 - 17:39.5 - Seabury Hall
  28. 161.1 - Michael Shiinoki, 11 - 17:41.8 - Iolani
  29. 159.4 - Kale Glunt, 11 - 17:47.2 - Mililani
  30. 159.2 - Ethan Aimoto, 11 - 17:47.8 - Hawaii Baptist Academy
Girls Teams:
  1. 43 - Punahou - 101:52.30 - 109.9 average
  2. 68 - Hawaii Baptist Academy - 102:58.85 - 105.6 average
  3. 131 - Iolani - 106:09.77 - 93.4 average
  4. 137 - Seabury Hall - 106:29.10 - 92.2 average
  5. 182 - Hilo - 109:18.67 - 81.4 average
  6. 194 - Kamehameha - 110:19.38 - 77.5 average
  7. 206 - Radford - 109:51.24 - 79.3 average
  8. 210 - Kalaheo - 109:44.16 - 79.7 average
  9. 288 - King Kekaulike - 112:54.46 - 67.6 average
  10. 320 - Kealakehe - 114:55.98 - 59.8 average
  11. 336 - Campbell - 115:01.98 - 59.4 average
  12. 358 - Kamehameha Hawaii - 115:31.34 - 57.6 average
  13. 363 - Waiakea - 115:51.06 - 56.3 average
  14. 383 - Kalani - 116:10.22 - 55.1 average
  15. 412 - Kaua'i - 116:26.79 - 54.0 average
  16. 424 - Roosevelt - 117:37.51 - 49.5 average
  17. 440 - Kea'au - 120:42.10 - 37.7 average
  18. 448 - Baldwin - 118:20.54 - 46.8 average
  19. 469 - Pearl City - 121:30.66 - 34.6 average
  20. 472 - Mililani - 121:49.31 - 33.4 average
  21. 503 - Hawaii Prep Academy - 120:03.23 - 40.2 average
Girls Top-30 Individuals:
  1. 124.1 - Emily Naylor, 10 - 19:37.9 - Kalaheo
  2. 117.6 - Kaylee Volner, 10 - 19:58.3 - Seabury Hall (ran 4:58.95 and 10:42.18 this spring)
  3. 117.3 - Ashley Kodama, 9 - 19:59.0 - Hawaii Baptist Academy
  4. 115.3 - Malia Dickhens, 10 - 20:05.5 - Punahou (ran 4:55.91 this spring)
  5. 114.8 - Aya Margraf, 12 - 20:06.9 - Iolani (ran 5:00.20 and 10:43.47 this spring)
  6. 112.5 - Aya Lewis, 10 - 20:14.3 - Le Jardin
  7. 112.1 - Lauren Saunders, 10 - 20:15.5 - Punahou
  8. 111.3 - Emma Burgess, 9 - 20:17.9 - Kaua'i
  9. 111.0 - Izzy Ford, 9 - 20:18.7 - Punahou
  10. 110.2 - Kallalei Ryden, 12 - 20:21.5 - Seabury Hall
  11. 109.2 - Kayla Almeida, 12 - 20:24.5 - Punahou
  12. 107.9 - Kacie Kwan, 12 - 20:28.5 - Hawaii Baptist Academy
  13. 107.6 - Lindsay Sasaki, 12 - 20:29.5 - Hawaii Baptist Academy
  14. 106.4 - Kristina (Tessa) Domingo, 11 - 20:33.4 - Maryknoll
  15. 104.3 - Cozette Wood, 9 - 20:39.7 - Kealakehe
  16. 103.7 - Teijah Rosas, 12 - 20:41.6 - Hilo
  17. 101.7 - Sasha Iizuka-Sheeley, 9 - 20:48.0 - Punahou
  18. 101.4 - Alexis King, 9 - 20:49.1 - Iolani
  19. 100.9 - Lindsey Jaeger, 11 - 20:50.4 - Hawaii Baptist Academy
  20. 100.7 - Naomi Bates, 11 - 20:51.1 - Radford
  21. 96.8 - Kaylee Noda, 10 - 21:03.4 - Pearl City
  22. 96.4 - Priana Dugied, 9 - 21:04.7 - Seabury Hall
  23. 96.1 - Madee Dougherty, 10 - 21:05.4 - King Kekaulike
  24. 96.0 - Myndee Dyer, 11 - 21:05.8 - Iolani
  25. 95.5 - Ekaterina Martyusheva, 12 - 21:07.5 - Radford
  26. 94.9 - Shaian Garana, 10 - 21:09.3 - Konawaena
  27. 94.5 - Cynthia Watanabe, 10 - 21:10.7 - Iolani
  28. 94.2 - Mari Monico, 11 - 21:11.4 - Hawaii Baptist Academy
  29. 93.3 - Tia Lurbiecki, 12 - 21:14.3 - Makua Lani Christian
  30. 92.5 - Leann Hamilton, 12 - 21:16.7 - Kealakehe


Teams/individuals in bold are entered in the NXR Northwest Championship races.
Teams/individuals underlined are entered in the NXR Northwest Open races.

NXR Northwest Entries Posted

The entries are in, and it looks like the best turnout yet at NXR!

15 of the top 16 teams on the girls side are in the Championship field (missing only #13 Camas WA), with 4 more that were ranked or Honorable Mention as well as the Hawai'i State Runner-up squad (I didn't rate the Hawai'i state meet, so not sure how they stack up), and a pair of teams that were just off the bubble with the Washington 3A #5 team and Oregon 5A Runner-up squad. That's a tremendous field!

Same story on the boys side with the top 17 of the top 18 teams in the field (missing only #15 Olympia WA), with 3 more that were ranked or Honorable Mention as well as the Wyoming 4A State Champions and Runner-up squads. Again, a tremendous field! Unfortunately, it looks like the Rogers (Spokane) boys got placed in the Open division since they didn't make it to state... too bad, they are deserving of a spot in the championship field this year and it's not their fault the WIAA's state qualification system isn't particularly well balanced (Gonzaga Prep was also relegated to the Open race). Also, Star Valley WY boys are surprisingly in the Open division as well - that's understandable if you only look at the State Meet results where they weren't really pressed, but they showed they are a competitive team with their race here at Bob Firman (#12, just behind Hellgate MT and North Central WA and ahead of Tahoma WA, Lewis & Clark WA, and Sherwood OR). However, the Championship field has to be cut off at some point, and the teams that did make it in are also very deserving... but I believe teams can request to be moved into the championship field if they want, and Star Valley should definitely consider that as clearly a potential NW Top-10 team and maybe Rogers as well (though they are probably more like a #14-25 team in the region).

I'll look into the individuals later, and probably post an NXR projection this evening.

Here's a key to what teams are using what club name.

Girls Championship Field:
Apollos Cross Country = (Sunset OR) - Oregon 6A Fifth Place
Arlington XC = (Arlington WA) - Washington 3A Fifth Place
Axe Backward = (South Eugene OR) - Oregon 6A Fourth Place
Barking Dogs = (Redmond WA) - Washington 4A Champions
Bozeman XC = (Bozeman MT) - Montana 2A Champions
Eagle Running Club = (Eagle ID) - Idaho 5A Third Place
Eagles 808 = (Hawai'i Baptist HI) - Hawai'i Runner-up
Grubnselle = (Ellensburg WA) - Washington 2A Champions
Helena Novas = (Helena MT) - Montana 2A Third Place
Hillsdale Harriers = (Wilson OR) - Oregon 6A Sixth Place
HKXC = (Hellgate MT) - Montana 2A Runner-up
Hood River TC = (Hood River Valley OR) - Oregon 5A Runner-up
Maple Valley = (Tahoma WA) - Washington 4A Third Place
North Spokane = (North Central WA) - Washington 3A Champions
Premier Running Club = (Post Falls ID) - Idaho 5A Fourth Place
Red Bird Running Club = (Lincoln OR) - Oregon 6A Third Place
Remain Curious = (Mountain View ID) - Idaho 5A Fifth Place
Run Brave XC = (Boise ID) - Idaho 5A Champions
Sammamish Wolfpack = (Eastlake WA) - Washington 4A Fourth Place
Storm Over Bend = (Summit OR) - Oregon 6A Champions
Stumptown XC = (Jesuit OR) - Oregon 6A Runner-up
Wolves XC Club = (Timberline (Boise) ID) - Idaho 5A Runner-up

Boys Championship Field:
Apollos Cross Country = (Sunset OR) - Oregon 6A Third Place
Axe Backward = (South Eugene OR) - Oregon 6A Sixth Place
Bozeman XC = (Bozeman MT) - Montana 2A Champions
Braves Soul = (Kamiakin WA) - Washington 3A Champions
Green Lake Harriers = (Bishop Blanchet WA) - Washington 3A Runner-up
HKXC = (Hellgate MT) - Montana 2A Runner-up
IFHSXC Club = (Idaho Falls ID) - Idaho 4A Champions
Indians = (Cheyenne Central WY) - Wyoming 4A Runner-up
Kavemen XC = (Kuna ID) - Idaho 4A Third Place
Lithia Distance = (Ashland OR) - Oregon 5A Champions
Loyal Sons/D = (Central Valley WA) - Washington 4A Fourth Place
Maple Valley = (Tahoma WA) - Washington 4A Runner-up
Mount Tabor = (Franklin OR) - Oregon 6A Champions
North Spokane = (North Central WA) - Washington 3A Third Place
Preston Club = (Preston ID) - Idaho 4A Runner-up
RTXC = (Camas WA) - Washington 4A Champions
Sheridan XC = (Sheridan WY) - Wyoming 4A Champions
Sherwood Run = (Sherwood OR) - Oregon 6A Fifth Place
South Central = (Lewis & Clark WA) - Washington 4A Third Place
Stark Street = (Central Catholic OR) - Oregon 6A Fourth Place
Stumptown XC = (Jesuit OR) - Oregon 6A Runner-up
Wolves XC Club = (Timberline (Boise) ID) - Idaho 5A Champions

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Girls SE State Meet Power Merge

This will be updated once Virginia and South Carolina's state meets are in the books. Until then, here are the top state meet performances so far.

Ratings estimates (200.0): 14:45 Alabama ~ 15:30 Georgia ~ 14:50 Florida ~ 15:05 North Carolina ~ 15:05 Tennessee ~ 15:25 Kentucky ~ 14:50 West Virginia ~ 15:10 Maryland ~ 15:15 Delaware ~ 14:55 North Carolina Independent Schools

All times are set to the 'good conditions' NXR Southeast standard (200.0 = 14:40).

The Southeast doesn't often have a plethora of potential NXN At-Large teams, but it is constantly among the deeper regions when looking at the second level of teams. Several of the teams that wouldn't be able to get into the Championship field (if everyone were to go to the meet for once) could finish in or near the top half of the Championship field in the Heartland, South and possibly even the Northeast. Part of the problem with the (commonly held on the internet) perception that the Southeast is weak is due to the Footlocker South and NXR Southeast regional meets are on the same day, as that dilutes both fields; the other part of the equation is that it's a pretty spread out region geographically and a lot of teams that could do well on the regional level simply decide to not attend. Some of that perception has started to dissipate due to the top-end teams running well at NXN Nationals in the last several years, and hopefully that trend continues and the region begins to garner the respect it deserves.

Top-22 Girls Teams:
  1. 148 - Cuthbertson NC - 91:08 - North Carolina 3A Champion
  2. 164 - Pine Crest FL - 91:12 - Florida 2A Champion
  3. 185 - Chapel Hill NC - 91:59 - North Carolina 3A Runner-up
  4. 204 - Weddington NC - 92:17 - North Carolina 3A Third Place
  5. 237 - St Pius X Catholic GA - 92:51 - Georgia 4A Champion
  6. 269 - The Bolles School FL - 93:07 - Florida 2A Runner-up
  7. 277 - Auburn AL - 93:12 - Alabama 7A Champion
  8. 278 - Mountain Brook AL - 93:13 - Alabama 7A Runner-up
  9. 282 - Marist GA - 93:12 - Georgia 4A Third Place
  10. 283 - Morgantown WV - 92:53 - West Virginia 3A Champion
  11. 297 - Blessed Trinity GA - 93:56 - Georgia 4A Runner-up
  12. 298 - Oldham County KY - 93:23 - Kentucky 3A Champion
  13. 312 - Dobyns-Bennett TN - 93:03 - Tennessee D1-Large Champion
  14. 314 - Durham Academy NC - 93:54 - North Carolina Ind. 4A Champion
  15. 332 - St. Mark's DE - 94:31 - Delaware D2 Runner-up
  16. 350 - Newsome FL - 94:22 - Florida 4A Champion
  17. 353 - South Forsyth GA - 94:28 - Georgia 7A Runner-up
  18. 362 - Hillgrove (Cobb) GA - 94:40 - Georgia 7A Champion
  19. 363 - West Forsyth NC - 94:45 - North Carolina 4A Runner-up
  20. 363 - Lawton Chiles FL - 94:33 - Florida 4A Runner-up
  21. 367 - John T Hoggard NC - 94:29 - North Carolina 4A Champion
  22. 383 - Padua DE - 94:48 - Delaware D1 Champion
Honorable Mention:
Alabama: Homewood
Delaware: Ursuline Academy
Florida: Oak Hall, St. Augustine, Winter Springs
Georgia: George Walton Comp, McIntosh, West Forsyth
Kentucky: DuPont Manual, Sacred Heart Academy, Scott
Maryland: Howard, Severna Park, Walter Johnson
North Carolina: Carrboro, Laney, Marvin Ridge, North Lincoln, Northern Guilford, Panther Creek, Pinecrest
Tennessee: Brentwood

Girls Top-100 Individuals:
  1. 154.3 - 16:54 - Sasha Neglia, 12 - Dobyns-Bennett TN
  2. 149.6 - 17:08 - Alyssa Hendrix, 12 - Riverview FL
  3. 147.9 - 17:13 - Lea Hatcher, 10 - Morgantown WV
  4. 147.1 - 17:15 - Jenna Goldberg, 12 - Walter Johnson MD
  5. 146.3 - 17:18 - Valerie Lastra, 12 - Mater Academy FL
  6. 146.0 - 17:18 - Parker Valby, 12 - East Lake FL
  7. 144.7 - 17:22 - Leigh Walters, 11 - Fred J. Page TN
  8. 144.5 - 17:23 - Athena Young, 12 - Morgantown WV
  9. 143.7 - 17:25 - Jenna Hutchins, 10 - Science Hill TN
  10. 142.7 - 17:28 - Jonna Strange, 12 - North Iredell NC
  11. 142.7 - 17:28 - Mckenna Trapheagen, 12 - Woodland (Cartersville) GA
  12. 142.7 - 17:28 - Kayla Gholar, 12 - Richmond Hill GA
  13. 142.4 - 17:29 - Carmen Alder, 11 - Pinecrest NC
  14. 141.6 - 17:31 - Gabriella Castro, 12 - Cuthbertson NC
  15. 141.4 - 17:32 - Tsion Yared, 12 - Pine Crest FL
  16. 140.7 - 17:34 - Caitlin Wilkey, 12 - Lawton Chiles FL
  17. 140.5 - 17:34 - Hayley Whoolery, 12 - West Johnston NC
  18. 140.3 - 17:35 - Ellie Tymorek, 11 - St Andrews FL
  19. 140.2 - 17:35 - Ciara O'Shea, 9 - Madison Central KY
  20. 139.6 - 17:37 - Landri Wilcox, 11 - Cookeville TN
  21. 139.3 - 17:38 - Margaret Sept, 9 - East Chapel Hill NC
  22. 137.8 - 17:43 - Presley Miles, 11 - St James AL
  23. 137.6 - 17:43 - Kaitlyn Obremski, 9 - Topsail Senior NC
  24. 137.1 - 17:45 - Amber Schulz, 10 - Timber Creek FL
  25. 136.7 - 17:46 - Frances Whitworth, 12 - Mount Tabor NC
  26. 136.7 - 17:46 - Madelynne Cadeau, 12 - South Forsyth GA
  27. 136.5 - 17:46 - Jenna Reiter, 12 - West Carteret NC
  28. 136.2 - 17:47 - Caroline Wells, 10 - Winter Springs FL
  29. 136.2 - 17:47 - Andie-Marie Jones, 10 - Maryville TN
  30. 136.2 - 17:47 - Charlotte Turesson, 11 - Richard Montgomery MD
  31. 135.6 - 17:49 - Stephanie Ormsby, 12 - Fort Myers FL
  32. 135.5 - 17:49 - Makena Gates, 11 - Creekview GA
  33. 135.0 - 17:51 - Hannah Miniutti, 11 - Blessed Trinity GA
  34. 134.1 - 17:53 - Alyson Churchill, 12 - Lawton Chiles FL
  35. 133.7 - 17:55 - Lilly Walters, 10 - Hough NC
  36. 133.6 - 17:55 - Mackenzie Walls, 12 - Veterans GA
  37. 132.9 - 17:57 - Kelly Ann Sutterfield, 10 - Blessed Trinity GA
  38. 132.9 - 17:57 - Emily Faulhaber, 12 - Pine Crest FL
  39. 132.3 - 17:59 - Amelia Maughan, 10 - Chapel Hill NC
  40. 132.2 - 17:59 - Liina Winborn, 12 - Sunlake FL
  41. 132.2 - 17:59 - Vanessia Alder, 9 - Pinecrest NC
  42. 131.2 - 18:02 - Crawford West, 10 - Vestavia Hills AL
  43. 131.2 - 18:02 - Caroline Lehman, 10 - Manatee FL
  44. 131.2 - 18:02 - Irene Riggs, 9 - Morgantown WV
  45. 131.0 - 18:02 - Jenna Champers, 9 - Oconee County GA
  46. 130.8 - 18:03 - Krystal Rodriguez, 11 - Coral Reef Senior FL
  47. 130.8 - 18:03 - Anna Rupp, 10 - Lexington Christian Academy KY
  48. 130.6 - 18:03 - Kambry Smith, 11 - Fort Walton Beach FL
  49. 130.2 - 18:05 - McKenna Croft, 12 - Douglas County GA
  50. 130.1 - 18:05 - Morgan Vaden, 12 - St Pius X Catholic GA
  51. 130.1 - 18:05 - Samantha Rogers, 12 - Auburn AL
  52. 129.9 - 18:06 - Lydia Colasante, 9 - Tatnall DE
  53. 129.7 - 18:06 - Maya Beleznay, 12 - Pine Crest FL
  54. 129.4 - 18:07 - Anna Ritter, 11 - Weddington NC
  55. 129.3 - 18:07 - Emma Solis, 12 - Newsome FL
  56. 129.2 - 18:08 - Isabella Frey, 10 - Wake Forest NC
  57. 129.1 - 18:08 - Marilyn McCarthy, 11 - Siegel TN
  58. 129.1 - 18:08 - Katy Earwood, 12 - Evans GA
  59. 128.9 - 18:09 - Lainey Phelps, 12 - Homewood AL
  60. 128.9 - 18:09 - Elizabeth Iliff, 11 - Creekside FL
  61. 128.8 - 18:09 - Emma Russum, 12 - Dobyns-Bennett TN
  62. 128.7 - 18:09 - Gwen Parks, 11 - Ronald W. Reagan NC
  63. 128.6 - 18:10 - Lillian Nasta, 9 - Cuthbertson NC
  64. 128.5 - 18:10 - Ashley Klingenberg, 12 - Lake Brantley FL
  65. 128.4 - 18:10 - Erin Fegans, 12 - Landmark Christian GA
  66. 128.4 - 18:10 - Tiffany Herrera, 10 - St. Mark's DE
  67. 128.0 - 18:11 - Angie Allen, 11 - North Lincoln NC
  68. 127.9 - 18:11 - Samantha Ouellette, 10 - Central Magnet TN
  69. 127.7 - 18:12 - Oakley Olson, 11 - Northern MD
  70. 127.5 - 18:13 - Christiana Coleman, 8 - Dillard FL
  71. 127.5 - 18:13 - Abby Weber, 10 - Chapel Hill NC
  72. 127.5 - 18:13 - Sierra Collins, 11 - Harnett Central NC
  73. 127.4 - 18:13 - Catherine Breault, 11 - St Pius X Catholic GA
  74. 127.3 - 18:13 - Maxine Montoya, 11 - The Bolles School FL
  75. 127.3 - 18:13 - June Mwaniki, 12 - Marietta GA
  76. 127.2 - 18:13 - Kathleen Schellman, 12 - Marist GA
  77. 127.2 - 18:13 - Ryann Aycock, 9 - Cary Christian NC
  78. 127.2 - 18:14 - Annabel Veltcheva, 10 - Gainesville FL
  79. 127.2 - 18:14 - Jessica Secor, 9 - DuPont Manual KY
  80. 127.1 - 18:14 - Mary Brady, 11 - St Pius X Catholic GA
  81. 126.8 - 18:15 - Alyssa Hernandez, 11 - Northern Guilford NC
  82. 126.5 - 18:16 - Megan Hughes, 12 - Academy Of The Holy Names FL
  83. 126.5 - 18:16 - Makayla Obremski, 11 - Topsail Senior NC
  84. 126.4 - 18:16 - Reagan Riley, 9 - Mountain Brook AL
  85. 126.1 - 18:17 - Paxton Chitty, 11 - Ashley NC
  86. 126.0 - 18:17 - Addi Dewey, 10 - Christian Academy KY
  87. 125.9 - 18:17 - Natalie Donaldson, 9 - St. Mark's DE
  88. 125.8 - 18:18 - Anna Ivanisevic, 9 - East Chapel Hill NC
  89. 125.5 - 18:19 - Rylee Pustilnik, 12 - Spanish River FL
  90. 125.5 - 18:19 - Megan Marvin, 12 - Chapel Hill NC
  91. 125.4 - 18:19 - Sophie Spada, 12 - Charlotte Country Day NC
  92. 125.3 - 18:19 - Alyx Beausoleil, 10 - Weddington NC
  93. 125.0 - 18:20 - Sinkenesh Parker, 11 - Circle Christian FL
  94. 124.8 - 18:21 - Judith McLaughlin, 11 - Padua DE
  95. 124.6 - 18:21 - Avery Fronrath, 8 - The King's Academy FL
  96. 124.5 - 18:21 - Allison Newman, 11 - St George's Independent TN
  97. 124.4 - 18:22 - Harper McGowan, 12 - Auburn AL
  98. 124.1 - 18:23 - Alyssa Galvin, 12 - North Lincoln NC
  99. 123.9 - 18:23 - Maisie Donohue, 10 - Brandywine DE
  100. 123.8 - 18:24 - Chloe Boa, 11 - Oldham County KY

Team Time Course Record: 90:18.7 (Tatnall DE 2011)
Individual Course Record: 16:22.8 (Katelyn Tuohy, North Rockland NY 2019)

Individual Top-50 Cut-Off (roughly a potential At-Large individual): 17:33.0

Boys SE State Meet Power Merge

This will be updated once Virginia and South Carolina's state meets are in the books. Until then, here are the top state meet performances so far.

Ratings estimates (200.0): 14:45 Alabama ~ 15:30 Georgia ~ 14:50 Florida ~ 15:05 North Carolina ~ 15:05 Tennessee ~ 15:25 Kentucky ~ 14:50 West Virginia ~ 15:10 Maryland ~ 15:15 Delaware ~ 14:55 North Carolina Independent Schools

All times are set to the 'good conditions' NXR Southeast standard (200.0 = 14:40).

The Southeast doesn't often have a plethora of potential NXN At-Large teams, but it is constantly among the deeper regions when looking at the second level of teams. Several of the teams that wouldn't be able to get into the Championship field (if everyone were to go to the meet for once) could finish in or near the top half of the Championship field in the Heartland, South and possibly even the Northeast. Part of the problem with the (commonly held on the internet) perception that the Southeast is weak is due to the Footlocker South and NXR Southeast regional meets are on the same day, as that dilutes both fields; the other part of the equation is that it's a pretty spread out region geographically and a lot of teams that could do well on the regional level simply decide to not attend. Some of that perception has started to dissipate due to the top-end teams running well at NXN Nationals in the last several years, and hopefully that trend continues and the region begins to garner the respect it deserves.

Top-22 Boys Teams:
  1. 175 - Huntsville AL - 78:17 - Alabama 7A Champion
  2. 188 - Severna Park MD - 78:19 - Maryland 4A Champion
  3. 240 - Satellite FL - 78:55 - Florida 2A Champion
  4. 249 - Needham Broughton NC - 78:59 - North Carolina 4A Champion
  5. 253 - Trinity For Boys KY - 79:05 - Kentucky 3A Champion
  6. 254 - Vestavia Hills AL - 79:11 - Alabama 7A Runner-up
  7. 257 - North Lincoln NC - 79:11 - North Carolina 2A Champion
  8. 282 - George Walton Comp GA - 79:20 - Georgia 7A Champion
  9. 288 - Charter School of Wilmington DE - 79:27 - Delaware D1 Champion
  10. 291 - Chapel Hill NC - 79:40 - North Carolina 3A Champion
  11. 292 - Nease FL - 79:21 - Florida 4A Runner-up
  12. 295 - Cardinal Gibbons NC - 79:11 - North Carolina 4A Runner-up
  13. 295 - Salesianum DE - 79:24 - Delaware D1 Runner-up
  14. 299 - Belen Jesuit Prep FL - 79:44 - Florida 3A Champion
  15. 303 - St Xavier KY - 79:43 - Kentucky 3A Runner-up
  16. 306 - Providence Day NC - 79:49 - North Carolina Ind. 4A Champion
  17. 320 - Weddington NC - 79:50 - North Carolina 3A Runner-up
  18. 338 - West Forsyth GA - 80:08 - Georgia 7A Third Place
  19. 340 - Harrison GA - 80:05 - Georgia 6A Champion
  20. 340 - Madison Central KY - 79:47 - Kentucky 3A Fourth Place
  21. 346 - Marietta GA - 80:04 - Georgia 7A Fourth Place
  22. 349 - Lambert GA - 80:07 - Georgia 7A Runner-up
Honorable Mention (by state):
Alabama: Auburn, Homewood, Scottsboro
Florida: George Steinbrenner, H.B. Plant, Robinson
Georgia: Archer, Brookwood, Norcross, Pope, South Forsyth, St. Pius X Catholic
Kentucky: Conner
Maryland: Northwood, Oakdale, River Hill
North Carolina: Ardrey Kell, Cuthbertson, First Flight, Green Hope, Leesville Road, Panther Creek, Pinecrest, Watauga
Tennessee: Siegel

Boys Top-100 Individuals:
  1. 198.9 - 14:43 - Graham Blanks, 12 - Athens Academy GA
  2. 194.6 - 14:56 - Myles Collins, 12 - Archer GA
  3. 193.2 - 15:00 - Ian Harrison, 12 - Panther Creek NC
  4. 192.2 - 15:03 - Carson Williams, 12 - Cardinal Gibbons NC
  5. 192.1 - 15:03 - Silas Winders, 12 - Henry County TN
  6. 191.8 - 15:04 - Sam Keeny, 12 - South River MD
  7. 191.7 - 15:04 - Connor O'Shea, 12 - Madison Central KY
  8. 190.8 - 15:07 - Evan Allen, 12 - Chester County TN
  9. 189.9 - 15:10 - Maddon Muhammad, 11 - Myers Park NC
  10. 189.3 - 15:11 - Tanner Piotrowski, 12 - Arundel MD
  11. 188.7 - 15:13 - Avery Cannon, 12 - Watauga NC
  12. 188.7 - 15:13 - Aidan Higley, 12 - Salesianum DE
  13. 188.6 - 15:13 - Ethan Strand, 11 - Vestavia Hills AL
  14. 188.5 - 15:14 - Justin Wachtel, 11 - Mary Persons GA
  15. 188.4 - 15:14 - Zackary Truitt, 11 - Landmark Christian GA
  16. 188.3 - 15:14 - Miles Ally, 11 - Martin Luther King TN
  17. 188.3 - 15:14 - Rheinhardt Harrison, 10 - Nease FL
  18. 188.3 - 15:14 - Anish Nanjappa, 12 - River Hill MD
  19. 188.2 - 15:15 - Jason Thomson, 12 - North Lincoln NC
  20. 188.1 - 15:15 - Noah Hayes, 12 - Hillgrove (Cobb) GA
  21. 187.8 - 15:16 - Brady Masters, 10 - Madison Central KY
  22. 187.7 - 15:16 - Ethan Geiger, 12 - Robinson FL
  23. 187.6 - 15:17 - Kyle Lund, 12 - Oakdale MD
  24. 187.5 - 15:17 - Andrew Avila, 12 - Charter School of Wilmington DE
  25. 187.4 - 15:17 - Murphy Smith, 11 - Ardrey Kell NC
  26. 187.3 - 15:17 - Kamari Miller, 11 - Marietta GA
  27. 187.3 - 15:17 - DK Schnieders, 11 - Lou. Holy Cross KY
  28. 187.2 - 15:17 - Ryan O'Dea, 11 - Trinity For Boys KY
  29. 187.2 - 15:17 - Finn Walsh, 11 - Kent Island MD
  30. 186.8 - 15:19 - Jackson Watts, 11 - Madisonville North Hopkins KY
  31. 186.7 - 15:19 - Walker Cole, 11 - Oak Mountain AL
  32. 186.6 - 15:19 - Sully Shelton, 11 - Harrison GA
  33. 186.1 - 15:21 - Brady Terry, 11 - Daviess County KY
  34. 186.1 - 15:21 - Levi Streeval, 10 - Frederick Douglass KY
  35. 186.0 - 15:21 - Kevin Baranoski, 11 - Harford Tech MD
  36. 185.9 - 15:21 - Andrew Hammel, 12 - Christ School NC
  37. 185.9 - 15:21 - Gabe Montague, 11 - Satellite FL
  38. 185.7 - 15:22 - Jake Gelfand, 11 - Severna Park MD
  39. 185.5 - 15:22 - John Malach, 12 - Needham Broughton NC
  40. 185.5 - 15:23 - Baidy Ba, 11 - Oakland Mills MD
  41. 185.3 - 15:23 - Kyle Harkabus, 12 - East Coweta GA
  42. 185.3 - 15:23 - Austin Montini, 11 - Oak Hall FL
  43. 185.2 - 15:23 - Carson Sloat, 11 - Severna Park MD
  44. 185.2 - 15:23 - Thomas Vo, 12 - Green Hope NC
  45. 185.2 - 15:24 - Garrett Suhr, 12 - Richard Montgomery MD
  46. 185.1 - 15:24 - Jackson Williams, 12 - Arlington TN
  47. 185.0 - 15:24 - Zack Gilbertson, 9 - Pinecrest NC
  48. 185.0 - 15:24 - Bradley Ball, 11 - Nease FL
  49. 184.8 - 15:24 - Justin Wilson, 10 - Satellite FL
  50. 184.8 - 15:25 - Chase Atkins, 11 - Hopkinsville KY
  51. 184.6 - 15:25 - Aiden Britt, 11 - Lebanon TN
  52. 184.4 - 15:26 - Connor Old, 12 - George Walton Comp GA
  53. 184.4 - 15:26 - Jake Toomey, 12 - Weddington NC
  54. 184.4 - 15:26 - Jake Turner, 12 - Armwood FL
  55. 184.3 - 15:26 - Andrew Jones, 11 - North Hall GA
  56. 184.3 - 15:26 - Jackson Danner, 11 - Huntsville AL
  57. 184.1 - 15:27 - Athanasius Tesfaye, 12 - Loganville GA
  58. 184.0 - 15:27 - Ryan Maynard, 12 - Taylor County KY
  59. 184.0 - 15:27 - Nolan Hester, 11 - St Xavier KY
  60. 184.0 - 15:27 - Brennan Bower, 12 - South Forsyth GA
  61. 184.0 - 15:27 - Surafel Mengist, 12 - Springbrook MD
  62. 184.0 - 15:27 - Domonic Macias, 12 - Union Grove GA
  63. 184.0 - 15:27 - Declan Mcdonnell, 11 - Tatnall DE
  64. 183.6 - 15:28 - Nick Lewis, 12 - Trinity For Boys KY
  65. 183.5 - 15:28 - Justin Tackling, 12 - Nease FL
  66. 183.5 - 15:28 - Zac Shaffer, 12 - George Walton Comp GA
  67. 183.4 - 15:29 - Anderson Denton, 12 - Lake Wales FL
  68. 183.4 - 15:29 - Ben Armentrout, 12 - Atkins NC
  69. 183.4 - 15:29 - Connor Hayes, 11 - Lexington Christian Academy KY
  70. 183.4 - 15:29 - Zane Chalker, 12 - Williamsport MD
  71. 183.3 - 15:29 - Wesley Haws, 11 - Cardinal Gibbons NC
  72. 183.3 - 15:29 - Matthew Stratton, 10 - St Johns Country Day FL
  73. 183.1 - 15:29 - Will Mitchell, 11 - Millbrook NC
  74. 183.1 - 15:30 - Ryan Banko, 10 - Salesianum DE
  75. 182.9 - 15:30 - Jack Rooney, 12 - Needham Broughton NC
  76. 182.7 - 15:31 - Canaan Anderson, 12 - Siegel TN
  77. 182.5 - 15:31 - Adrian Archer, 10 - Pinecrest NC
  78. 182.5 - 15:31 - Christian Gonzalez, 10 - Decatur GA
  79. 182.4 - 15:32 - Peter Sorensen, 11 - Towson MD
  80. 182.4 - 15:32 - Dustyn Lewis, 12 - Virgil I Grissom AL
  81. 182.4 - 15:32 - Blaise Moyer, 11 - Caesar Rodney DE
  82. 182.4 - 15:32 - Jace Jones, 12 - Thompson AL
  83. 182.3 - 15:32 - Sam Rich, 10 - Lakeside Evans GA
  84. 182.1 - 15:32 - Will Cahill, 11 - Lafayette KY
  85. 182.0 - 15:33 - Cooper Bocko, 11 - Lambert GA
  86. 181.7 - 15:34 - Will Pinson, 10 - Huntsville AL
  87. 181.4 - 15:34 - Devin Wade, 12 - Whitefield Academy GA
  88. 181.3 - 15:35 - Caden Miracle, 9 - Bell County KY
  89. 181.0 - 15:36 - Elliott Kleckner, 10 - Croatan NC
  90. 180.7 - 15:36 - Lane Hoyes, 10 - Thomas Nelson KY
  91. 180.7 - 15:37 - Christian Landis, 11 - Providence Day NC
  92. 180.7 - 15:37 - Jimmy Mullarkey, 10 - Fern Creek Traditional KY
  93. 180.7 - 15:37 - Zachary Wedding, 11 - Chopticon MD
  94. 180.7 - 15:37 - Aaron Jones, 12 - Science Hill TN
  95. 180.5 - 15:37 - Avery Jaynes, 11 - Southeast Bulloch GA
  96. 180.5 - 15:37 - Zach Hughes, 12 - First Flight NC
  97. 180.5 - 15:37 - Nick Engleman, 12 - Severna Park MD
  98. 180.4 - 15:37 - Keaton Watts, 12 - Huntsville AL
  99. 180.4 - 15:37 - Junious Brown IV, 12 - Maclay FL
  100. 180.4 - 15:38 - Jacob Gallant, 12 - Mount Tabor NC


Team Time Course Record: 76:29.80 (Great Oak CA 2019)
Individual Course Record: 14:32.20 (Brodey Hasty, Brentwood TN 2016)

Team Time Top-25 Cut-Off (roughly a potential At-Large team): 78:35.6
Individual Top-50 Cut-Off (roughly a potential At-Large individual): 15:06.8

Monday, November 11, 2019

Texas UIL/SPC/TAPPS State Power Merge - Girls

Texas is a somewhat tricky state to rate due to different classes racing different distances: girls 1A-4A only run 3200m, while 5A/6A run the full course. In addition, there are two substantial private school associations that draw teams away as well (SPC and TAPPS). Regardless, Texas is the bulk of the NXR South region, so it's always a pretty important state to keep an eye on as the top 3-5 boys teams and top 3-5 girls teams are likely to contend for a spot to NXN.

UIL Ratings Estimate: 200.0 ~ 14:35 (girls 3200m course ~ 9:20)
SPC Ratings Estimate: 200.0 ~ 15:05
TAPPS Ratings Estimate: 200.0 ~ 15:30 (girls 3200m course ~ 9:40)

Times listed below are ADJUSTED to a baseline of 200.0 = 15:00.

Girls Top-22 Teams:
  1.  72 - Southlake Carroll - 93:45 - UIL 6A Champion
  2. 116 - Boerne Champion - 94:28 - UIL 5A Champion
  3. 143 - Humble Kingwood - 95:07 - UIL 6A Runner-up
  4. 160 - Prosper - 94:37 - UIL 6A Third Place
  5. 177 - Grapevine - 95:40 - UIL 5A Runner-up
  6. 197 - Coppell - 96:07 - UIL 6A Fourth Place
  7. 239 - Lewisville Flower Mound - 96:27 - UIL 6A Fifth Place
  8. 297 - Austin Vandegrift - 97:26 - UIL 6A Sixth Place
  9. 307 - St Agnes Academy - 97:37 - TAPPS 6A Champion
  10. 324 - Comal Smithson Valley - 97:49 - UIL 6A Seventh Place
  11. 343 - Amarillo - 98:13 - UIL 5A Third Place
  12. 344 - Frisco Reedy - 97:27 - UIL 5A Fourth Place
  13. 349 - Greenhill - 98:29 - SPC Champion
  14. 356 - Canyon - 98:23 - UIL 4A Champion
  15. 357 - Bridgeland - 98:28 - UIL 6A Eighth Place
  16. 373 - Celina - 98:46 - UIL 4A Runner-up
  17. 373 - Dallas Highland Park - 98:35 - UIL 5A Fifth Place
  18. 388 - Lucas Lovejoy - 98:23 - UIL 5A Sixth Place
  19. 402 - Katy Tompkins - 99:07 - UIL 6A Ninth Place
  20. 403 - Dripping Springs - 99:05 - UIL 5A Seventh Place
  21. 403 - Mission Sharyland - 99:10 - UIL 5A Eighth Place
  22. 415 - Hereford - 99:12 - UIL 4A Third Place
Girls Top-100 Individuals:
  1. 146.2 - 17:41 - Aubrey O'Connell, 10 - Prosper
  2. 144.1 - 17:48 - Eva Jess, 11 - El Paso Franklin
  3. 142.4 - 17:53 - Colleen Stegmann, 11 - Frisco Reedy
  4. 139.6 - 18:01 - Gracie Morris, 12 - Aledo
  5. 136.3 - 18:11 - Amy Morefield, 9 - Lucas Lovejoy
  6. 135.9 - 18:12 - Avery Clover, 11 - Humble Atascocita
  7. 134.2 - 18:18 - Mckenzie Bailey, 9 - Georgetown
  8. 133.8 - 18:19 - Kelsie Vicknair, 12 - Boerne Champion
  9. 133.5 - 18:19 - Jaci McGregor, 11 - Salado
  10. 132.7 - 18:22 - Emme Odonnell, 11 - Port Lavaca Calhoun
  11. 131.9 - 18:24 - Sara Scott, 11 - Comal Smithson Valley
  12. 131.4 - 18:26 - Natalie Cook, 10 - Lewisville Flower Mound
  13. 131.4 - 18:26 - Peyton Muntz, 12 - Whitesboro
  14. 130.8 - 18:28 - Sadie Carey, 12 - Weatherford
  15. 129.8 - 18:31 - Emily Garcia, 12 - Alvarado
  16. 129.4 - 18:32 - Jenna Holland, 12 - Southlake Carroll
  17. 129.4 - 18:32 - Carly Ahrens, 9 - Humble Kingwood
  18. 128.8 - 18:34 - Ellie Catron, 12 - The Woodlands Christian
  19. 128.4 - 18:35 - Peyton McQuillan, 12 - Magnolia West
  20. 128.2 - 18:35 - Allison Hedrick, 11 - Lindsay
  21. 127.3 - 18:38 - Katherine McElaney, 12 - Southlake Carroll
  22. 127.0 - 18:39 - Finley Hunting, 9 - San Antonio Cole
  23. 126.4 - 18:41 - Gemma Goddard, 11 - Austin Vandegrift
  24. 126.2 - 18:41 - Abree Winfrey, 9 - Canyon
  25. 126.2 - 18:41 - kylene Elias, 9 - Tornillo
  26. 126.0 - 18:42 - Cameron Fawcett, 11 - Dallas Highland Park
  27. 125.9 - 18:42 - Zaila Smith, 9 - Liberty Hill
  28. 125.8 - 18:43 - Kate Williams, 10 - Boerne Champion
  29. 125.8 - 18:43 - Felisa Saheib, 11 - Colleyville Heritage
  30. 125.6 - 18:43 - Kyla Kane, 10 - Wellington
  31. 125.4 - 18:44 - Deepti Choudhury, 11 - Westwood
  32. 125.3 - 18:44 - Addison Stevenson, 11 - Katy Tompkins
  33. 125.2 - 18:44 - Ellie Albrecht, 12 - Goliad
  34. 125.2 - 18:45 - Caroline Burrow, 11 - Grapevine
  35. 125.0 - 18:45 - Grace Williamson, 11 - Southlake Carroll
  36. 124.8 - 18:46 - Andrea Acuna, 12 - Ft Worth Boswell
  37. 124.1 - 18:48 - Maddie Hatfield, 12 - Greenhill
  38. 123.6 - 18:49 - Adele Clarke, 10 - Celina
  39. 122.7 - 18:52 - Megan Nevlud, 12 - Round Rock
  40. 122.5 - 18:52 - London Culbreath, 12 - McKinney North
  41. 122.5 - 18:53 - Tatum Foreman, 12 - Southlake Carroll
  42. 122.3 - 18:53 - Rachel Sutliff, 11 - Grapevine
  43. 122.2 - 18:54 - Leslie Salas, 9 - Cornerstone Christian (San Angelo)
  44. 121.9 - 18:54 - Amanda Hogan, 10 - Ursuline Academy
  45. 121.9 - 18:54 - Madeline Myers, 11 - Klein
  46. 121.6 - 18:55 - Jentry Lamirand, 10 - Decatur
  47. 121.0 - 18:57 - Abigail McIlvain, 11 - Southlake Carroll
  48. 121.0 - 18:57 - Abigail Parra, 10 - Buda Hays
  49. 120.8 - 18:58 - Katie Cline, 11 - St Stephens Episcopal
  50. 120.6 - 18:58 - Briana Roberson, 11 - Fulshear
  51. 120.5 - 18:59 - Lily Jacobs, 12 - Sunnyvale
  52. 120.4 - 18:59 - Rachel James, 12 - Humble Kingwood
  53. 120.4 - 18:59 - Abigail Wilson, 11 - Montgomery
  54. 120.3 - 18:59 - Mariana Guzman, 12 - El Paso Americas
  55. 120.2 - 19:00 - Renee Elliott, 11 - Midlothian Heritage
  56. 120.1 - 19:00 - Anastacia Gonzales, 10 - Boerne Champion
  57. 120.1 - 19:00 - Morgan Colon, 11 - Coppell
  58. 120.1 - 19:00 - Chloe Hassman, 11 - Coppell
  59. 119.8 - 19:01 - Breanna Stuart, 10 - Canyon
  60. 119.8 - 19:01 - Carson Parker, 10 - Humble Kingwood
  61. 119.7 - 19:01 - Victoria Schmidt, 10 - Episcopal School Of Dallas
  62. 119.3 - 19:02 - Lydia Lo, 12 - Southlake Carroll
  63. 119.2 - 19:02 - Ellie Galan, 11 - Kaufman
  64. 119.1 - 19:03 - Kennady Fontenot, 10 - New Braunfels
  65. 118.7 - 19:04 - Reagan High, 10 - Southwest Christian (Fort Worth)
  66. 118.7 - 19:04 - Charzelle Williams, 9 - Waxahachie Life
  67. 118.5 - 19:05 - Sophia Munoz, 10 - Austin
  68. 118.1 - 19:06 - Shelby Spoor, 12 - Coppell
  69. 118.0 - 19:06 - Hadley Watts, 11 - Nacogdoches Central Heights
  70. 118.0 - 19:06 - Maddie Ellis, 12 - Richmond Foster
  71. 118.0 - 19:06 - Kat Kwiatkowski, 10 - Episcopal
  72. 118.0 - 19:06 - Cassidy Graham, 10 - Bridgeland
  73. 117.9 - 19:06 - Elise Smoot, 12 - Austin Westlake
  74. 117.9 - 19:06 - Tatum Castillo, 12 - Prosper
  75. 117.6 - 19:07 - Mia Rowe, 12 - Georgetown East View
  76. 117.5 - 19:07 - Theresa McCullough, 9 - Grapevine
  77. 117.4 - 19:08 - Elena Villarreal, 9 - Conroe Woodlands College Park
  78. 117.2 - 19:08 - Allison Buemi, 10 - Lewisville Flower Mound
  79. 117.2 - 19:09 - Abigail Bass, 9 - Melissa
  80. 117.1 - 19:09 - Hannah Spears, 10 - Holliday
  81. 116.8 - 19:10 - Kaiti Ness, 12 - Greenhill
  82. 116.8 - 19:10 - Alexandra Johnson, 11 - Argyle
  83. 116.6 - 19:10 - Emilie Morgan, 12 - Allen
  84. 116.5 - 19:11 - Grace Flores, 9 - Boerne Champion
  85. 116.5 - 19:11 - Sophie Atkinson, 11 - Katy Cinco Ranch
  86. 116.3 - 19:11 - Ariyah Gomez, 10 - Randall
  87. 116.3 - 19:11 - Amalie Mills, 11 - Comal Smithson Valley
  88. 116.1 - 19:12 - Shaylee Shiller, 11 - Wall
  89. 115.8 - 19:12 - Camille Napier, 10 - St Agnes Academy
  90. 115.7 - 19:13 - Rebecca Rhodes, 9 - Humble Kingwood
  91. 115.6 - 19:13 - Alexis Svoboda, 11 - Prosper
  92. 115.4 - 19:14 - Ashley Dove, 12 - Grapevine
  93. 115.2 - 19:15 - Jorja Bessonett, 11 - Cumby Miller Grove
  94. 115.1 - 19:15 - Cassidy Davis, 9 - Huffman Hargrave
  95. 115.0 - 19:15 - Maddison Helm, 12 - Orangefield
  96. 115.0 - 19:15 - Katie Houck, 10 - Boerne Champion
  97. 115.0 - 19:15 - Sophie Dale, 9 - Austin LBJ
  98. 114.9 - 19:15 - Ashlyn Peralta, 12 - Sundown
  99. 114.6 - 19:16 - Emily Kern, 10 - Prosper
  100. 114.6 - 19:16 - Brooke Latham, 10 - Amarillo