NXR Midwest Projections

Unfortunately, unlike the NW Regional, the MW Regional doesn't publish a full list of all athletes competing for every club in the championship race, an also not all of the teams qualified for their state meet, so I won't be doing a full/complete projection for the meet. However, here is a rough starting point to compare the teams entered - 31 of the 34 boys teams are included and 31 of the 32 girls teams are included and their state meet performances are compared. I'm not going to list the individuals as well (you can see the top individuals in the region in the State Meet merge post, though not all will be in attendance).

Due in part to Michigan teams not being allowed to officially compete at NXN events, the regional field isn't nearly as strong as it could be:

15 of the top 18 boys teams are in attendance, with only one other Top-22 team in the field and 3 more Honorable Mention teams. Only 19 of the top 35 teams are in attendance and are competing against 15 other teams that weren't ranked or nearly ranked from their state meet performances.

On the girls side, it is even worse. Only 3 of the top 5 teams are in attendance and scoring (the #4 team is a Michigan team who is competing but NOT scoring). The field is missing the #3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 12, and 13 teams! That's a whole lot of missing firepower that takes this region from "deep and competitive" to "a few good teams at the top". The good news is, the depth beyond the ranked teams is somewhat solid: of the 32 scoring teams in the field, 22 of them are either ranked or were Honorable Mention leaving only 10 other teams that weren't ranked or nearly ranked from their state meet performances.

Boys 31 Team score (and time set to the 2018 NXR Midwest race):

1. 87 - St. Charles (East) IL - 78:06 (Illinois 3A Champion)
2. 88 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL - 78:16 (Illinois 3A Runner-up)
3. 224 - Elmhurst (York) IL - 79:31 (Illinois 3A Third Place)
4. 225 - Sandburg IL - 79:20 (Illinois 3A Fourth Place)
5. 285 - Oswego (East) IL - 79:58 (Illinois 3A Fifth Place)
6. 286 - St. Louis University MO - 79:55 (Missouri Class 4 Runner-up)
7. 288 - St Xavier OH - 79:59 (Ohio D1 Champion)
8. 295 - Woodridge OH - 80:15 (Ohio D2 Champion)
9. 301 - Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran IN - 80:05 (Indiana Champino)
10. 303 - Mason OH - 80:14 (Ohio D1 Runner-up)
11. 307 - Maine South IL - 80:10 (Illinois 3A Sixth Place)
12. 321 - Carmel IN - 80:30 (Indiana Runner-up)
13. 332 - Hersey IL - 79:37 (Illinois 3A Seventh Place)
14. 345 - Naperville (North) IL - 80:17 (Illinois 3A Eighth Place)
15. 348 - Central (St. Joseph) MO - 80:32 (Missouri Class 4 Fifth Place)
16. 370 - Minooka IL - 80:53 (Illinois 3A Ninth Place)
17. 404 - Winnetka (New Trier) IL - 81:00 (Illinois 3A Tenth Place)
18. 430 - Downers Grove (North) IL - 81:16 (Illinois 3A #11)
19. 454 - Columbus North IN - 81:20 (Indiana Fourth Place)
20. 496 - Pickerington North OH - 81:08 (Ohio D1 Fifth Place)
21. 498 - Hinsdale (Central) IL - 81:50 (Illinois 3A #12)
22. 508 - Aurora (Waubonsie Valley) IL - 81:42 (Illinois 3A #13)
23. 522 - Lake Zurich IL - 81:41 (Illinois 3A #14)
24. 532 - Barrington IL - 81:52 (Illinois 3A #15)
25. 539 - Lyons Township IL - 81:45 (Illinois 3A #16)
26. 549 - Homestead IN - 82:03 (Indiana Sixth Place)
27. 598 - Beavercreek OH - 82:35 (Ohio D1 Tenth Place)
28. 691 - Noblesville IN - 83:16 (Indiana #12)
29. 698 - McHenry IL - 83:02 (Illinois 3A #20)
30. 714 - Ashland OH - 83:12 (Ohio D1 #13)
31. 867 - Floyd Central IN - 84:32 (Indiana #19)

Girls 31 Team Score:

1. 114 - Beavercreek OH - 90:31 (Ohio D1 Champion)
2. 121 - Naperville (North) IL - 92:04 (Illinois 3A Champion)
3. 204 - Yorkville IL - 93:52 (Illinois 3A Runner-up)
4. 251 - Lakota East OH - 94:41 (Ohio D1 Runner-up)
5. 287 - Hinsdale (Central) IL - 94:03 (Illinois 3A Third Place)
6. 306 - Hilliard Davidson OH - 94:11 (Ohio D1 Third Place)
7. 316 - Winnebago IL - 95:15 (Illinois 1A Champion)
8. 338 - Lexington OH - 94:44 (Ohio D2 Champion)
9. 343 - Downers Grove (South) IL - 94:38 (Illinois 3A Fifth Place)
10. 346 - Carmel IN - 95:29 (Indiana Third Place)
11. 356 - Glenbard West IL - 93:49 (Illinois 3A Sixth Place)
12. 370 - Barrington IL - 95:06 (Illinois 3A Seventh Place)
13. 393 - Columbus North IN - 96:09 (Indiana Fifth Place)
14. 402 - Lee's Summit West MO - 96:00 (Missouri Class 4 Champion)
15. 413 - Mt. Prospect (Prospect) IL - 95:43 (Illinois 3A Eighth Place)
16. 437 - Minooka IL - 96:15 (Illinois 3A Ninth Place)
17. 445 - Lockport (Township) IL - 96:19 (Illinois 3A Tenth Place)
18. 447 - Mason OH - 95:56 (Ohio D1 Fourth Place)
19. 451 - Rock Bridge MO - 95:48 (Missouri Class 4 Runner-up)
20. 456 - Oswego IL - 96:28 (Illinois 3A #11)
21. 472 - Loveland OH - 96:43 (Ohio D1 Sixth Place)
22. 477 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL - 95:50 (Illinois 3A #12)
23. 489 - Medina OH - 96:10 (Ohio D1 Fifth Place)
24. 492 - Eureka MO - 96:42 (Missouri Class 4 Third Place)
25. 520 - Noblesville IN - 97:04 (Indiana Seventh Place)
26. 565 - Minster OH - 97:35 (Ohio D3 Champion)
27. 565 - Lyons Township IL - 97:31 (Illinois 3A #17)
28. 570 - Elmhurst (York) IL - 97:24 (Illinois 3A #18)
29. 580 - St Joseph Academy OH - 97:19 (Ohio D1 Eighth Place)
30. 617 - Bloomington North IN - 97:55 (Indiana Tenth Place)
31. 639 - Downers Grove (North) IL - 98:06 (Illinois 3A #21)

The story here: strong favorites for the AQ spots on both sides with St. Charles East IL and Wheaton Warrenville South IL on the boys side, and Beavercreek OH and Naperville North IL on the girls side.

Also strong favorites for the #3/4 spots on the boys side with York IL and Sandburg IL, and on the girls side a strong favorite for #3 in Yorkville IL.

The battle beyond those teams should be pretty intense. No guarantees for potential At-Large teams here, but a good race from York or Sandburg boys probably puts them in consideration while Yorkville girls would probably need a better performance... Ann Arbor Pioneer would probably be in a better position to secure third place and a potential At-Large bid, but unfortunately Michigan teams continue to have problems being cleared to compete at NXN events due to their state association's rules.