Times are set to what is typical of the Eagle Island course when under good conditions.
Also, please keep in mind: these times are based off of ratings that are intentionally left ROUGH -- I round the rating estimates to the nearest 5 seconds, so don't consider these scores or times to be nearly exacting -- ideally they are within 5 seconds of eachother before you take race-to-race variance into account, which could be a 30-50 point swing for teams that have all 5 runners in the middle of the pack. ... in other words, while North Central may appear to come out as the favorite, it is more accurate to consider them "Co-Favorites" with Summit for the Championship (just taking that expected margin of error into account while assuming I'm not over/undervaluing either state meet -- which is far from a certainty, as this isn't remotely an exact science -- then NC should score anywhere from 61-81 points while Summit should score anywhere from 69-102 ... that is plenty of overlap before you even begin to consider one having having a better/worse day than the other when they finally meet on the course! And if I happen to be overvaluing the Washington state meet by only 5 seconds, the projected scores would be virtually even at 83-84 before taking into account Oregon State's margin of error ... in other words, these two teams ran VERY similarly last week), and next to nothing separating #4 Eagle from #8 Bozeman, despite how the scores appear.
Girls Teams:
- 72 - North Central WA - 91:05
- 85 - Summit OR - 91:23
- 126 - Boise ID - 93:21
- 169 - Eagle ID - 93:02
- 193 - Jesuit OR - 93:45
- 195 - Timberline (Boise) ID - 94:23
- 196 - Lincoln OR - 93:54
- 209 - Bozeman MT - 94:16
- 252 - Hellgate MT - 95:12
- 261 - Post Falls ID - 95:00
- 323 - Mountain View ID - 96:32
- 348 - Helena MT - 96:40
- 354 - Tahoma WA - 97:00
- 360 - South Eugene OR - 96:50
- 392 - Eastlake WA - 97:46
- 396 - Redmond WA - 98:52
- 396 - Sunset OR - 98:11
- 417 - Ellensburg WA - 98:48
- 454 - Hood River Valley OR - 98:57
- 481 - Wilson OR - 99:31
- 509 - Hawaii Baptist Academy HI - 99:42
- 590 - Arlington WA - 101:29
Girls Individuals:
- 17:16 - Sydney Thorvaldson, 11 - Unattached WY
- 17:32 - Fiona Max, 12 - Summit OR
- 17:36 - Mattalyn Geddes, 12 - Unattached ID
- 17:42 - Kate Peters, 9 - Lincoln OR
- 17:44 - Julia David Smith, 11 - Unattached WA
- 17:44 - Allie Janke, 11 - North Central WA
- 17:48 - Lizzie Dildine, 11 - Eagle ID
- 17:52 - Sydney Shanahan, 12 - Post Falls ID
- 17:52 - Teaghan Knox, 10 - Summit OR
- 17:56 - Kylie Hartnett, 10 - Helena MT
- 17:57 - Alaina Stone, 12 - Unattached WA
- 17:57 - Ashley LaJocies, 12 - Eagle ID
- 17:57 - Chloe Foerster, 10 - Jesuit OR
- 17:59 - Erinn Hill, 12 - North Central WA
- 18:09 - Amelu Ruff, 12 - North Central WA
- 18:10 - Terra Trom, 12 - Bozeman MT
- 18:10 - Abby Kendrick, 11 - Hellgate MT
- 18:16 - Gabby Martin, 10 - Unattached WA
- 18:18 - Madison Elmore, 12 - South Eugene OR
- 18:19 - Kate Simmons, 12 - Unattached WA
- 18:21 - Samantha Wood, 10 - Post Falls ID
- 18:22 - Brynnli Poulsen, 11 - Unattached MT
- 18:24 - Alexis Kebbe, 12 - Jesuit OR
- 18:25 - Elena Vandersloot, 12 - Unattached MT
- 18:27 - Kaiya Robertson, 10 - Unattached OR
- 18:28 - Autumn Ost, 11 - Unattached OR
- 18:30 - Marie Taylor, 12 - North Central WA
- 18:31 - Kaitlyn Gearin, 12 - Unattached OR
- 18:33 - Rosina Machu, 11 - Boise ID
- 18:34 - Mikella Tobin, 10 - Boise ID
- 18:34 - Sage Brooks, 11 - Hellgate MT
- 18:35 - Leah Holmgren, 12 - Ellensburg WA
- 18:35 - Isabel Max, 12 - Summit OR
- 18:37 - Sophie McManus, 11 - Unattached ID
- 18:37 - Lucy Huelskamp, 12 - Sunset OR
- 18:39 - Jamie Hamlin, 10 - Boise ID
- 18:39 - Riley Cash, 10 - Lincoln OR
- 18:40 - Molly Elliott, 12 - Boise ID
- 18:40 - Rebekka Bruland, 11 - Timberline (Boise) ID
- 18:41 - Ellie Gard, 12 - Unattached WA
- 18:41 - Roz Slichko, 11 - Unattached WA
- 18:41 - Morgan French, 12 - Mountain View ID
- 18:41 - Natalie Ruzauskas, 10 - Unattached WA
- 18:42 - Annelies Quinton, 11 - Unattached OR
- 18:42 - Barrett Justema, 9 - Summit OR
- 18:42 - Magdalene Williams, 10 - Summit OR
- 18:43 - Naomi Smith, 12 - Unattached WA
- 18:43 - Mia Hill, 12 - North Central WA
- 18:43 - Brinlee Bryson, 12 - Eagle ID
- 18:45 - Alexia Corona, 10 - Unattached ID
- 18:46 - Jasper Fievet, 11 - Summit OR
- 18:48 - Sylvia Ingram, 11 - Wilson OR
- 18:49 - Anika Thompson, 11 - Unattached OR
- 18:49 - Sage Martin, 12 - Unattached ID
- 18:49 - Isabella Brickner, 12 - Timberline (Boise) ID
- 18:49 - Samantha Prusse, 12 - Unattached OR
- 18:50 - Lexy Halladay, 12 - Mountain View ID
- 18:51 - Mia Kane, 11 - Lincoln OR
- 18:51 - Aayiana Fuller, 12 - Unattached WA
- 18:52 - Grace Gilbreth, 11 - Bozeman MT
- 18:52 - Meri Dunford, 12 - Unattached WA
- 18:53 - Abigail Whitman, 12 - Unattached WY
- 18:55 - Annika Zuschlag, 10 - Boise ID
- 18:55 - Lili Hargreaves, 11 - Redmond WA
- 18:56 - Chloe Connolly, 11 - Redmond WA
- 18:56 - Ellie Baxter, 11 - Unattached WA
- 18:56 - Charlie Duff, 12 - Timberline (Boise) ID
- 18:56 - Kaleena Narus, 10 - Timberline (Boise) ID
- 18:57 - Halle Jenkins, 12 - Unattached WA
- 18:57 - Alyssa Britton, 11 - Eagle ID
- 18:57 - Kate Laurent, 10 - Ellensburg WA
- 18:57 - Molly Grant, 11 - Jesuit OR
- 18:58 - Emily Foote, 12 - Unattached OR
- 18:58 - Emily Van Valkenburg, 10 - Eastlake WA
- 18:58 - Stella Skovborg, 12 - Summit OR
- 18:59 - Lydia Nance, 9 - Boise ID
- 19:00 - Natalie McCormick, 11 - Bozeman MT
- 19:00 - Lauren Larson, 11 - Unattached WA
- 19:00 - Paige Wiley, 9 - Sunset OR
- 19:00 - Margot Desmond, 12 - Unattached OR
- 19:02 - Anastasia Russell, 11 - Timberline (Boise) ID
- 19:04 - Emma Arceo, 10 - Unattached WA
- 19:05 - Ella Borsheim, 10 - Unattached WA
- 19:06 - Alex Moore, 12 - Bozeman MT
- 19:06 - Josephine Dickinson, 12 - Hood River Valley OR
- 19:06 - Olivia Moye, 9 - Unattached OR
- 19:07 - Isabel Homsi, 12 - Lincoln OR
- 19:08 - Lucia Mccormick, 9 - Bozeman MT
- 19:08 - Brooklyn Lowry, 10 - Mountain View ID
- 19:08 - Theresa Barnhart, 10 - Tahoma WA
- 19:09 - Sophia Dahl, 9 - Redmond WA
- 19:10 - Maggie Bennett, 9 - Jesuit OR
- 19:10 - Jasmine Wang, 12 - Sunset OR
- 19:11 - Riley Moore, 11 - Bozeman MT
- 19:14 - Frances Dickinson, 12 - Hood River Valley OR
- 19:15 - Nicole DeHerrera, 12 - Unattached WA
- 19:16 - Faith Martinez, 10 - Tahoma WA
- 19:17 - Sunitha Black, 11 - Unattached OR
- 19:17 - Naya Wrenn, 9 - Jesuit OR
- 19:18 - Kaybree Christensen, 11 - Unattached ID
- 19:20 - Belle Johnson, 10 - Unattached WA
- 19:20 - Odessa Zentz, 10 - Helena MT
- 19:20 - Hannah Seubert, 10 - South Eugene OR
- 19:21 - Ashley Kodama, 9 - Hawaii Baptist Academy HI
- 19:21 - Sabrina Bryant, 12 - Hellgate MT
- 19:23 - Ava Hagwell, 9 - Eastlake WA
- 19:23 - Anika Nau, 9 - Tahoma WA
- 19:24 - Lucy Tsai, 12 - Unattached OR
- 19:25 - Karlee Christensen, 11 - Unattached ID
- 19:25 - Abby Stamper, 10 - Timberline (Boise) ID
- 19:25 - Andrea Cernuda, 11 - Boise ID
- 19:27 - Malia Dickhens, 10 - Unattached HI
- 19:29 - Camryn Mock, 11 - Unattached WA
- 19:31 - Sage Aguilar, 10 - Tahoma WA
- 19:31 - Gabriella Prusse, 10 - Unattached OR
- 19:32 - Bella Distante, 11 - Unattached WA
- 19:32 - Rylie Schoenfeld, 10 - Helena MT
- 19:32 - Katie Munro, 12 - Hellgate MT
- 19:32 - Jennifer Tsai, 10 - Unattached OR
- 19:33 - Bailey Shanahan, 12 - Post Falls ID
- 19:33 - Ava Earl, 11 - Unattached AK
- 19:35 - Izzy Munro, 10 - Hellgate MT
- 19:35 - Ellie Cook, 10 - Lincoln OR
- 19:35 - Anayah Brown, 11 - Post Falls ID
- 19:36 - Rylee Leishman, 9 - Ellensburg WA
- 19:37 - Afton Fillmore, 10 - Eagle ID
- 19:37 - Nyah Allen, 10 - Eastlake WA
- 19:38 - Ella Harris, 11 - Eagle ID
- 19:38 - Alyssa Flindt, 9 - Eastlake WA
- 19:39 - Anna Peters, 9 - Post Falls ID
- 19:39 - Petra Schuster, 9 - Wilson OR
- 19:40 - Bailey Bingham, 12 - Mountain View ID
- 19:41 - Linnea Onushco, 10 - Helena MT
- 19:42 - Cydney Sanchez, 10 - Unattached WA
- 19:42 - Darwin Hanson, 10 - Unattached WA
- 19:42 - Lulu Brady, 11 - Tahoma WA
- 19:42 - Zoe Quach, 11 - Jesuit OR
- 19:43 - Sophia Stubblefield, 10 - Unattached OR
- 19:43 - Kate Bouse, 11 - South Eugene OR
- 19:43 - Gretchen Schwartz, 11 - South Eugene OR
- 19:44 - Tatum Witter, 11 - Unattached AK
- 19:44 - Tsu-quin-da-ro Enyart, 10 - Lincoln OR
- 19:45 - Lottie Bromham, 12 - Hood River Valley OR
- 19:46 - Natalie Jack, 9 - Jesuit OR
- 19:46 - Anna Tavakolian, 10 - South Eugene OR
- 19:47 - Cameron Gupta, 9 - South Eugene OR
- 19:47 - Paige Hazen, 11 - South Eugene OR
- 19:47 - Karsyn Roldan, 10 - Timberline (Boise) ID
- 19:49 - Kacie Kwan, 12 - Hawaii Baptist Academy HI
- 19:50 - Ellie Hull, 11 - Bozeman MT
- 19:50 - Lindsay Sasaki, 12 - Hawaii Baptist Academy HI
- 19:52 - Iris Swanberg, 10 - Hellgate MT
- 19:53 - Hannah Hernandez, 12 - Unattached OR
- 19:53 - Brooklyn Meehan, 11 - Tahoma WA
- 19:53 - Anne Louise Fernandez, 12 - Arlington WA
- 19:54 - Kynzie DeLeon, 12 - Unattached WA
- 19:58 - Madison Lee, 11 - North Central WA
- 20:00 - Sara Sanders, 9 - Tahoma WA
- 20:02 - Amanda Nygard, 11 - Unattached WA
- 20:10 - Ariya Mathrawala, 10 - Eastlake WA
- 20:10 - Lauren Lehr, 12 - Redmond WA
- 20:11 - Lindsey Jaeger, 11 - Hawaii Baptist Academy HI
- 20:11 - Kylee Wetzel, 10 - Helena MT
- 20:11 - Chloe Bullock, 11 - Hood River Valley OR
- 20:11 - Kaley Bohl, 9 - Post Falls ID
- 20:13 - Brooklynne Erickson, 11 - Mountain View ID
- 20:14 - Mary Reinbold, 12 - Unattached AK
- 20:14 - Charlotte Richman, 10 - Wilson OR
- 20:18 - Paige Nelson, 12 - Arlington WA
- 20:19 - Annika Deazley, 11 - Wilson OR
- 20:21 - Avery Lee, 9 - Mountain View ID
- 20:21 - Kortlyn Lowry, 12 - Mountain View ID
- 20:24 - Maggie Delaney, 12 - Arlington WA
- 20:24 - Hannah Johnson, 12 - Arlington WA
- 20:26 - Alyssa Plant, 12 - Helena MT
- 20:29 - Claudia Wolf, 10 - Eastlake WA
- 20:29 - Kendall Carter, 9 - North Central WA
- 20:30 - Kate Rosson, 11 - Arlington WA
- 20:31 - Mari Monico, 11 - Hawaii Baptist Academy HI
- 20:31 - Avery Poulsen, 12 - Wilson OR
- 20:32 - Ashley Lotzkar, 10 - Eastlake WA
- 20:37 - Natalie Taylor, 11 - Sunset OR
- 20:40 - Annika Kendrick, 9 - Hellgate MT
- 20:41 - Lucy Hennessy, 11 - Hood River Valley OR
- 20:42 - Keira Coye, 11 - Unattached OR
- 20:47 - Eva McIlraith, 10 - Sunset OR
- 20:49 - Madison Thompson, 12 - Ellensburg WA
- 20:50 - Caley Chun, 9 - Hawaii Baptist Academy HI
- 20:50 - Samhita Tovinkere, 11 - Sunset OR
- 20:50 - Payton Smith, 10 - Unattached AK
- 20:51 - Holly Fromherz, 9 - Ellensburg WA
- 20:54 - Celia Acosta, 12 - Hood River Valley OR
- 21:01 - Tailer Cochran, 12 - Arlington WA
- 21:02 - Leah Holding, 11 - Post Falls ID
- 21:07 - Mieka McKnight, 10 - Hood River Valley OR
- 21:08 - Lexi Erdahl, 9 - Helena MT
- 21:15 - Blake Chennai, 12 - Sunset OR
- 21:15 - Autumn Darrah, 12 - Wilson OR
- 21:17 - Vivian Potong, 12 - Arlington WA
- 21:17 - Breanna Day, 12 - Unattached AK
- 21:18 - Alex Hall, 10 - Ellensburg WA
- 21:21 - Sohana Monson, 9 - Wilson OR
- 21:42 - Neha Ramanath, 12 - Redmond WA
Also, here's a link to the updated Eagle Island All-Time list for reference.
Team Time Course Record: 91:26.1 (Summit OR 2018)
Individual Course Record: 17:13.47 (Camilla Noe, Bozeman MT 2017)
Team Time Top-25 Cut-off (roughly a potential At-Large team): 94:27.72
Individual Top-50 Cut-off (roughly a potential At-Large individual): 17:55.5
(BTW, by "Potential", I mean "MIGHT get some consideration" -- not that they will or even should get an At-Large spot)
As you can see, 8 girls teams are projected to run a team time as good as what might puts them in consideration for an At-Large spot... which is VERY unusual for a girls field anywhere in the nation. This field is so loaded it is absurd!
(BTW, by "Potential", I mean "MIGHT get some consideration" -- not that they will or even should get an At-Large spot)
As you can see, 8 girls teams are projected to run a team time as good as what might puts them in consideration for an At-Large spot... which is VERY unusual for a girls field anywhere in the nation. This field is so loaded it is absurd!
No comments:
Post a Comment