Boys NXR Northwest Projection

Here's the race projection, based ONLY on their last meet ran (e.g. State for almost everyone, or State Qualifier meet if they didn't qualify or DNF at state, etc.). This is using strictly the entry list, so it is a little different from the state merge in that some teams subbed some runners in/out.

Times are set to what is typical of the Eagle Island course when under good conditions.

Also, please keep in mind: these times are based off of ratings that are intentionally left ROUGH -- I round the rating estimates to the nearest 5 seconds, so don't consider this scores or times as nearly exacting -- ideally they are within 5 seconds of eachother before you take race-to-race variance into account, which could be a 40-60 point swing for teams that have all 5 runners in the middle of the pack. ... in other words, while Camas and Kamiakin are the favorites to qualify, #3-12 is fairly wide open.

Boys Teams:

1. 110 - Camas WA - 79:19
2. 129 - Kamiakin WA - 79:36
3. 176 - Idaho Falls ID - 79:57
4. 184 - Bishop Blanchet WA - 80:19
5. 193 - Franklin OR - 80:20
6. 196 - Ashland OR - 79:54
7. 213 - Tahoma WA - 80:35
8. 232 - Lewis and Clark WA - 80:22
9. 238 - Kuna ID - 80:55
10. 242 - Preston ID - 80:58
11. 253 - Central Valley WA - 80:58
12. 255 - North Central WA - 81:01
13. 293 - Jesuit OR - 81:40
14. 326 - Bozeman MT - 82:01
15. 333 - Central Catholic OR - 82:05
16. 341 - Sherwood OR - 82:11
17. 351 - Hellgate MT - 82:22
18. 386 - Timberline (Boise) ID - 82:31
19. 404 - Sunset OR - 82:52
20. 417 - South Eugene OR - 82:59
21. 557 - Cheyenne Central WY - 85:45
22. 567 - Sheridan WY - 84:48

Boys Individuals:

1. 15:05 - Evan Holland, 12 - Ashland OR
2. 15:18 - Wil Smith, 12 - Lewis and Clark WA
3. 15:19 - Nathan Green, 11 - Unattached ID
4. 15:25 - Jacob Easton, 12 - Unattached WA
5. 15:27 - Tyler Hunter, 12 - Central Valley WA
6. 15:28 - Zac Bright, 11 - Idaho Falls ID
7. 15:31 - Russell Richardson, 12 - Kuna ID
8. 15:33 - Evan Jenkins, 10 - Camas WA
9. 15:33 - Isaac Teeples, 10 - Kamiakin WA
10. 15:36 - Mitchell Athay, 11 - Idaho Falls ID
11. 15:37 - Jonas Bears, 12 - Unattached WA
12. 15:37 - Caleb Hamblin, 12 - Unattached ID
13. 15:38 - Sam Geiger, 11 - Camas WA
14. 15:39 - Jonas Price, 12 - Unattached WA
15. 15:39 - Cooper Laird, 12 - Unattached WA
16. 15:39 - Ahmed Ibrahim, 12 - Unattached OR
17. 15:39 - Eliason Kabasenche, 12 - Unattached WA
18. 15:40 - Shea Mattson, 12 - Unattached WA
19. 15:40 - Ethan Martin, 12 - Tahoma WA
20. 15:41 - Patrick North, 12 - Lewis and Clark WA
21. 15:41 - Kai Gundlach, 12 - Bishop Blanchet WA
22. 15:41 - Aidan Palmer, 12 - Franklin OR
23. 15:43 - Hayden Bostrom, 11 - Timberline (Boise) ID
24. 15:43 - Jarred Barnes, 12 - Unattached WA
25. 15:43 - Charlie Robertson, 11 - Franklin OR
26. 15:43 - Stanford Smith, 12 - Kamiakin WA
27. 15:44 - Ethan Coleman, 10 - Unattached WA
28. 15:45 - Isaac Morris, 12 - North Central WA
29. 15:45 - Quincy Norman, 12 - Unattached OR
30. 15:45 - Riley Reid, 12 - Preston ID
31. 15:46 - Peter Visser, 11 - Unattached WY
32. 15:47 - Bryce Cerkowniak, 11 - Unattached WA
33. 15:49 - Arlo Davis, 12 - Ashland OR
34. 15:49 - Will Dixon, 11 - Unattached ID
35. 15:49 - Nathan Carter, 12 - North Central WA
36. 15:53 - Brian Martinez, 12 - Tahoma WA
37. 15:54 - Luc Utheza, 12 - Camas WA
38. 15:54 - Logan Hunt, 12 - Unattached ID
39. 15:54 - Tristian Merchant, 11 - Unattached AK
40. 15:55 - Paul Talens, 11 - Unattached WA
41. 15:55 - Sam Jeppsen, 11 - Preston ID
42. 15:55 - William Schneider, 9 - Bishop Blanchet WA
43. 15:55 - Ryan Schumacher, 11 - Jesuit OR
44. 15:56 - Reed Pryor, 11 - Ashland OR
45. 15:56 - Simon Hill, 12 - Unattached MT
46. 15:57 - Danny Maxwell, 12 - Lewis and Clark WA
47. 15:57 - Abdinasir Hussein, 12 - Unattached OR
48. 15:58 - Nicky DiMartino, 12 - Bishop Blanchet WA
49. 15:58 - Bas Holland, 12 - Unattached WA
50. 15:58 - Ian Curtis, 12 - Hellgate MT
51. 15:58 - Andrew Payton, 12 - Unattached OR
52. 15:59 - Mateo Althouse, 11 - Unattached OR
53. 16:01 - Liam Kaperick, 11 - South Eugene OR
54. 16:02 - Johnathon Simmons, 11 - Unattached ID
55. 16:02 - Sean Westerhout, 11 - Unattached WA
56. 16:03 - Jackson Buffonge, 11 - Franklin OR
57. 16:03 - Austin Gappa, 12 - Unattached WA
58. 16:03 - Andrew Holladay, 12 - Kamiakin WA
59. 16:04 - Cameron Stein, 11 - Ashland OR
60. 16:05 - Spencer Twyman, 12 - Camas WA
61. 16:06 - Elijah Lopez, 12 - Unattached WA
62. 16:06 - Edison Leffler, 10 - Preston ID
63. 16:06 - Aaron VanValkenburg, 12 - Unattached WA
64. 16:06 - Micah Murphy, 12 - Unattached WA
65. 16:07 - Caleb Kartchner, 11 - Central Valley WA
66. 16:07 - Alex Wright, 11 - Central Valley WA
67. 16:07 - Andrew Larson, 12 - Kamiakin WA
68. 16:08 - Sam Anderson, 12 - Unattached WA
69. 16:08 - Seth Babbel, 12 - Unattached ID
70. 16:09 - Austin Weese, 12 - Camas WA
71. 16:09 - Josue Corona-Solis, 12 - Central Catholic OR
72. 16:09 - Ignatius Fitzgerald, 11 - Hellgate MT
73. 16:10 - Jeret Gillingham, 12 - Unattached OR
74. 16:10 - Jax Weide, 12 - Kamiakin WA
75. 16:11 - Trevor Stephen, 12 - Cheyenne Central WY
76. 16:11 - Joseph Ereaux, 11 - Idaho Falls ID
77. 16:11 - Grayson Wilcott, 10 - Kamiakin WA
78. 16:12 - Leif Swanson, 11 - North Central WA
79. 16:12 - Connor Griffith, 12 - Unattached WA
80. 16:13 - Max Louth, 12 - Kuna ID
81. 16:14 - William Hodgson, 12 - Bozeman MT
82. 16:14 - Charlie North, 10 - Franklin OR
83. 16:14 - Porter Elison, 11 - Idaho Falls ID
84. 16:14 - Thomas Osborne, 12 - Sherwood OR
85. 16:14 - Cameron Stuard, 11 - Tahoma WA
86. 16:15 - Mason Watamura, 11 - Unattached WA
87. 16:15 - Collin Beyer, 11 - Sunset OR
88. 16:15 - Alex Kiefer, 11 - Tahoma WA
89. 16:15 - Payson Bingham, 12 - Unattached ID
90. 16:15 - Spencer Hardy, 12 - Central Catholic OR
91. 16:16 - Daniel Dixon, 12 - Unattached ID
92. 16:16 - Rob McManus, 11 - Unattached WA
93. 16:18 - Finn Bentler, 12 - Unattached MT
94. 16:19 - Jonas Larson, 12 - Jesuit OR
95. 16:20 - Adam Flood, 12 - Bishop Blanchet WA
96. 16:20 - Lukas Horejsi, 12 - Hellgate MT
97. 16:20 - Bennet Jackson, 12 - Unattached OR
98. 16:20 - McKay Hunter, 12 - Unattached MT
99. 16:21 - Hyrum Nelson, 12 - Unattached AK
100. 16:21 - Caleb Hornung, 11 - Unattached MT
101. 16:22 - William Richardson, 10 - Kuna ID
102. 16:22 - Michael Maiorano, 10 - Unattached OR
103. 16:23 - Colter Kirkland, 10 - Unattached MT
104. 16:23 - Parker Cunningham, 11 - Kuna ID
105. 16:23 - Owen Smith, 12 - Unattached MT
106. 16:23 - Declan O'Scannlain, 12 - Jesuit OR
107. 16:24 - Tyler Schmautz, 12 - Unattached MT
108. 16:24 - Josh Harrison, 12 - Preston ID
109. 16:24 - Ismael Alvares, 11 - Sherwood OR
110. 16:24 - David Cummings, 12 - Sunset OR
111. 16:25 - Tyler Graff, 10 - Bishop Blanchet WA
112. 16:25 - Anders Beil, 11 - Central Catholic OR
113. 16:25 - Jared Harden, 11 - Unattached ID
114. 16:26 - Griffin May, 12 - Bozeman MT
115. 16:26 - John Schuler, 10 - Jesuit OR
116. 16:26 - Ryver Mills, 11 - Kuna ID
117. 16:26 - Stirling Marshall-Pryde, 11 - Bozeman MT
118. 16:27 - Xander Danenhauer, 11 - Bozeman MT
119. 16:27 - Connor Gardner, 11 - Unattached ID
120. 16:27 - Noah Phillips, 12 - Unattached WA
121. 16:27 - Jeffery Rogers, 10 - Sherwood OR
122. 16:28 - Quinn Wilcox, 11 - Unattached OR
123. 16:28 - Seth Wyatt, 12 - Bozeman MT
124. 16:28 - Isaac Corgatelli, 12 - Idaho Falls ID
125. 16:30 - Koshi Schunter, 10 - North Central WA
126. 16:30 - Nate Hicken, 12 - Sherwood OR
127. 16:31 - Jonathan Lagonegro, 12 - Kamiakin WA
128. 16:31 - Oscar Roering, 11 - South Eugene OR
129. 16:31 - Sean Janecko, 10 - Timberline (Boise) ID
130. 16:32 - Michael Lewis, 12 - Bishop Blanchet WA
131. 16:33 - Jesse Dimich-Louvet, 12 - Unattached MT
132. 16:33 - Alex King, 11 - Sunset OR
133. 16:33 - Matthew Bruneel, 12 - Tahoma WA
134. 16:34 - Carson Wright, 11 - Timberline (Boise) ID
135. 16:35 - James Tanner, 10 - Central Valley WA
136. 16:36 - Joseph Halsey, 12 - Central Catholic OR
137. 16:36 - Jaron Homer, 12 - Sherwood OR
138. 16:37 - Jonathan Wheeler, 12 - Bozeman MT
139. 16:37 - Jack Bennett, 11 - Jesuit OR
140. 16:37 - Zachary Traul, 12 - Unattached OR
141. 16:39 - Daniel Fajardo, 11 - Franklin OR
142. 16:39 - Ethan Crawford, 11 - Lewis and Clark WA
143. 16:40 - Julian Kingery, 10 - Central Catholic OR
144. 16:41 - John Romano-Olsen, 12 - Bishop Blanchet WA
145. 16:41 - Noah Hoefer, 12 - Unattached AK
146. 16:41 - Mason Gerwig, 12 - Sunset OR
147. 16:42 - Ethan Sheneman, 10 - Central Valley WA
148. 16:42 - Jacob Frentheway, 10 - Cheyenne Central WY
149. 16:43 - James Crabtree, 10 - Sherwood OR
150. 16:44 - Jackson Seubert, 10 - South Eugene OR
151. 16:45 - Zach Kness, 10 - North Central WA
152. 16:45 - Henry Anderson, 11 - South Eugene OR
153. 16:46 - Austin Akers, 9 - Sheridan WY
154. 16:46 - Ethan Sturdivant, 10 - Sherwood OR
155. 16:46 - Jacob Packwood, 12 - Timberline (Boise) ID
156. 16:47 - Brian Bowers, 10 - Lewis and Clark WA
157. 16:47 - Alex Garber, 12 - Sheridan WY
158. 16:48 - Garrett Hale, 10 - Preston ID
159. 16:49 - Sam Kindl, 11 - Lewis and Clark WA
160. 16:50 - Dallin Gardiner, 12 - Unattached AK
161. 16:50 - Caden Hildenbrand, 10 - Jesuit OR
162. 16:51 - Micah Brauhn, 12 - North Central WA
163. 16:53 - Aidan Alexander, 11 - Jesuit OR
164. 16:53 - Charlie Black, 9 - Central Catholic OR
165. 16:53 - Miles Colescott, 11 - Hellgate MT
166. 16:56 - Jordan Hansen, 11 - Unattached WA
167. 16:57 - Timothy Brown, 12 - Sheridan WY
168. 16:57 - Charlie Stands, 12 - Timberline (Boise) ID
169. 16:57 - Leland McAbee, 10 - Kuna ID
170. 16:58 - Nate Tavakolian, 12 - South Eugene OR
171. 16:59 - Logan Law, 9 - Unattached OR
172. 16:59 - Carson Cummins, 12 - Sunset OR
173. 17:00 - Kaleb Beloy, 12 - Unattached AK
174. 17:00 - Henry Williams, 12 - Ashland OR
175. 17:02 - Jameson Westhead, 12 - Central Catholic OR
176. 17:02 - Renn Stearns, 11 - Hellgate MT
177. 17:02 - Nathan Bennee, 11 - Kuna ID
178. 17:03 - Isaac Dammeyer, 12 - Unattached AK
179. 17:03 - Reynger Davidsavor, 10 - Preston ID
180. 17:04 - Andrew Long, 11 - Timberline (Boise) ID
181. 17:05 - Paul Beaven, 10 - Franklin OR
182. 17:06 - Evan Bruce, 9 - Lewis and Clark WA
183. 17:06 - Ethan Greiner, 10 - North Central WA
184. 17:09 - Caleb Jerdon, 12 - Central Valley WA
185. 17:09 - Eric Meyers, 12 - Central Valley WA
186. 17:09 - Reese Charest, 10 - Sheridan WY
187. 17:09 - David Standish, 11 - Sheridan WY
188. 17:10 - Braden Kivisto, 10 - Cheyenne Central WY
189. 17:10 - Dominic Manzo, 12 - Tahoma WA
190. 17:13 - Joe Johns, 10 - Bozeman MT
191. 17:13 - Carson Frawley, 10 - Camas WA
192. 17:13 - Jack Clarke, 10 - Tahoma WA
193. 17:14 - Heath Springman, 12 - Idaho Falls ID
194. 17:15 - Ben Nichols, 12 - Sunset OR
195. 17:18 - Dax Summers, 12 - Hellgate MT
196. 17:20 - Vincent Senn, 10 - Ashland OR
197. 17:21 - Jason Frentheway, 10 - Cheyenne Central WY
198. 17:22 - Asher McKinnon, 10 - South Eugene OR
199. 17:25 - Connor Hayward, 11 - Camas WA
200. 17:28 - Blaine Johnson, 11 - Sheridan WY
201. 17:31 - Lars Deboutte, 12 - Sunset OR
202. 17:38 - Carter Steinmetz, 10 - Timberline (Boise) ID
203. 17:43 - Aidan Duffield, 12 - Hellgate MT
204. 17:57 - Dawson Leffler, 11 - Preston ID
205. 17:59 - Miles Lehman-Winters, 12 - South Eugene OR
206. 18:01 - Craig Barber, 11 - Franklin OR
207. 18:07 - Nathan Stein, 9 - Ashland OR
208. 18:11 - Wyatt Shaw, 12 - Sheridan WY
209. 18:21 - Tristan Knueppel, 10 - Cheyenne Central WY
210. 22:52 - Andrew Wehausen, 12 - Idaho Falls ID

Also, here's a link to the updated Eagle Island All-Time list for reference.

Team Time Course Record: 78:26.9 (Great Oak CA 2018)
Individual Course Record: 14:49.0 (Luke Puskedra, Judge Memorial UT 2007)

Team Time Top-25 Cut-off (roughly a potential At-Large team): 80:27.3
Individual Top-50 Cut-off (roughly a potential At-Large individual): 15:25.9


(BTW, by "Potential", I mean "MIGHT get some consideration" -- not that they will or even should get an At-Large spot)


The boys race also has about 6-8 teams that could be under the mark that might put them in At-Large consideration... the difference is, that is not unusual at all for the boys side in stronger regions. Still a pretty solid year for boys teams, but nowhere near the level of the girls.