Yearly Rant - Improving the WIAA, part 4

Previously, I discussed the foundation of the changes to make the WIAA more competitive at the state qualifier and state championship level. In this post, I'll delve into a more concrete example: how this year's Cross Country field might have unfolded. Keep in mind, with the reduction from 6 classes to 4, the closest equivalents will be 4A = Division 1 and 2A = Division 2. I'm not going to simulate the Division 3/4 fields (2 divisions worth will be plenty of reading). Today, I will limit the comparison to the boys field, with the girls field coming tomorrow.

Important note: all of the following will be using the best performance ratings from the League, District/Regional and State Championship meets only. In order to continue the apples-to-apples comparison as best as I can, I will use the same ratings when referring to the teams and athletes that did qualify this year.

First off, a quick breakdown: these are roughly how the regional team races would have unfolded.

D1 Region 1 (4 to state): 63 Glacier Peak, 67 Henry Jackson, 92 Lake Stevens, 113 Arlington, 114 Edmonds-Woodway, 119 Snohomish, 193 Marysville Getchell, 233 Shorewood, 248 Kamiak, 293 Meadowdale, 312 Mount Vernon, 341 Monroe, 348 Cascade, 443 Mariner, 444 Ferndale

D1 Region 2 (6 to state): 89 Tahoma, 107 Interlake, 123 Skyline, 125 Issaquah, 160 Redmond, 162 Ballard, 198 Mount Si, 208 Garfield, 249 Inglemoor, 277 Kentridge, 278 Roosevelt, 301 Auburn Riverside, 359 Kentwood, 379 Thomas Jefferson, 400 Todd Beamer, 401 Enumclaw, 492 Kentlake, 494 Auburn Mountainview, 508 Kennedy Catholic, 548 Hazen

D1 Region 3 (5 to state): 44 Bellarmine Prep, 81 Camas, 129 Gig Harbor, 187 Emerald Ridge, 206 Skyview, 224 South Kitsap, 228 Olympia, 232 Curtis, 261 Mountain View, 271 Union, 289 Graham-Kapowsin, 300 Sumner, 307 Puyallup, 407 Rogers-Puyallup, 412 Lincoln, 435 Timberline, 438 Heritage, 453 Kelso, 460 Stadium, 469 Battle Ground

D1 Region 4 (5 to state): 85 North Central, 96 Central Valley, 117 Joel Ferris, 118 Eisenhower, 138 Lewis & Clark, 143 Kamiakin, 208 Richland, 224 Gonzaga Prep, 252 University, 263 Mead, 289 Southridge, 383 Walla Walla, 390 Mount Spokane, 402 Hanford, 443 West Valley-Yakima, 445 Moses Lake, 473 Pasco, 488 Wenatchee, 490 Eastmont, 531 AC Davis

D2 Region 1 (7 to state): 99 Sehome, 155 Bishop Blanchet, 178 Cedarcrest, 187 Seattle Prep, 196 Liberty-Issaquah, 216 Nathan Hale, 242 Everett, 251 Bainbridge, 255 Ingraham, 259 Mountlake Terrace, 291 Bellingham, 318 Franklin, 318 Lakeside-Seattle, 329 Oak Harbor, 341 Shorecrest, 356 Juanita, 360 Anacortes, 368 Burlington-Edison, 409 Stanwood, 431 Lakewood

D2 Region 2 (6 to state): 81 Lakes, 102 Lindbergh, 112 Bonney Lake, 118 Woodrow Wilson, 124 Sequim, 129 Kingston, 170 Steilacoom, 191 Central Kitsap, 228 Peninsula, 310 Port Angeles, 312 North Kitsap, 348 Washington, 382 Orting, 396 Franklin Pierce, 406 Renton, 456 Eatonville, 473 Fife, 478 White River, 487 Olympic, 495 Highline

D2 Region 3 (4 to state): 73 Ridgefield, 94 Tumwater, 95 Washougal, 136 Columbia River, 151 Capital, 186 Hockinson, 208 Black Hills, 259 R.A. Long, 285 Prairie, 301 North Thurston, 325 Shelton, 328 Mark Morris, 331 Centralia, 354 Rochester, 359 W.F. West, 380 Hudson's Bay, 430 Aberdeen, 463 River Ridge

D2 Region 4 (3 to state): 78 Pullman, 79 Selah, 83 Cheney, 92 Ellensburg, 120 West Valley-Spokane, 187 East Valley-Spokane, 194 Prosser, 216 Toppenish, 261 Ephrata, 282 Wapato, 311 Grandview, 337 Quincy, 341 Clarkston, 350 East Valley-Yakima, 451 Othello



Notes: There are in effect 8 less teams than actually qualified to state, and the vast majority of those teams that would no longer qualify were not that competitive at the state level: 4A #16 West Valley-Yakima was almost 100 points behind the next worst team. 3A #15 Mountain View was 160 points out of the top 10. 2A District 3 duo of Port Angeles and North Kitsap were 160 points behind the #14 team at state. But the key point of these changes was to make the state qualification system more equitable and the state qualifiers more competitive, and that certainly looks to be the result. The strongest regions remained the strongest, but the gap between them and the rest of the state shrinks considerably. While there are still going to be teams that lag behind the rest of the field at the state meet, there are bound to be fewer, and this scenario bares that out: all of the teams that qualify in the top division proved capable of running a sub-17 average, and all of the teams in the second division proved capable of running a sub-17:30 average. No more 17:30+ in 4A and 18:00+ in 2A.

Here is the hypothetical scoring of these two state meets:

Division 1 =

1. 101 - Bellarmine Prep - 16:03.14
2. 108 - North Central - 16:04.25
3. 135 - Central Valley - 16:08.06
4. 177 - Joel Ferris - 16:11.65
5. 183 - Eisenhower - 16:11.90
6. 209 - Lewis and Clark* - 16:21.33
7. 231 - Glacier Peak - 16:24.38
8. 232 - Henry Jackson - 16:17.25
9. 246 - Tahoma - 16:22.85
10. 249 - Camas - 16:13.73
11. 281 - Interlake - 16:29.54
12. 305 - Lake Stevens* - 16:34.13
13. 318 - Issaquah - 16:35.67
14. 328 - Skyline - 16:37.17
15. 353 - Ballard - 16:37.25
16. 358 - Gig Harbor - 16:39.38
17. 363 - Arlington - 16:40.25
18. 388 - Redmond - 16:43.53
19. 443 - Skyview - 16:56.28
20. 484 - Emerald Ridge - 16:57.68

Division 2 =

1. 137 - Sehome - 16:39.16
2. 190 - Bishop Blanchet - 16:50.59
3. 206 - Cedarcrest - 16:47.30
4. 207 - Seattle Prep* - 16:54.06
5. 223 - Liberty (Issaquah) - 16:53.05
6. 231 - Ridgefield - 16:50.70
7. 232 - Selah - 16:55.10
8. 238 - Pullman - 16:58.06
9. 245 - Cheney - 16:59.02
10. 245 - Nathan Hale* - 17:00.13
11. 281 - Lakes - 17:06.39
12. 285 - Everett - 17:04.95
13. 295 - Tumwater - 17:05.50
14. 297 - Washougal - 17:06.51
15. 312 - Woodrow Wilson - 17:05.78
16. 318 - Lindbergh - 17:11.78
17. 338 - Sequim - 17:12.72
18. 353 - Kingston - 17:17.76
19. 355 - Bonney Lake - 17:19.15
20. 395 - Columbia River* - 17:25.83

Asterisk denotes the team did not qualify this fall in the current system.

Looking at how the regional races would be projected to unfold, it would probably be possible to use the exact number of starting boxes as they used at the meet with an individual qualifier factor of 4 (meaning if a region qualifies 5 teams, they send 20 individuals). The four races I looked at would have projected 29-36 individuals to qualify with that ratio (meaning 5-6 individuals per box, as there were 26 starting boxes this year).

Here is a chart similar to one I used earlier, looking at the final qualifiers from each region and comparing that to the actual qualifiers from this year's system. As mentioned before, for both the actual qualifiers and projected qualifiers these are using the best races from the state series (League through State).

Individual - Team - Qualifier (Teams/Individuals) - 3200m Equivalents

164.7 162.9 D1-1 (4/16) 10:00.6 10:03.7
165.0 157.5 D1-2 (6/24) 9:59.9 10:13.4
164.9 157.1 D1-3 (5/20) 10:00.2 10:14.2
173.9 169.3 D1-4 (5/20) 9:44.0 9:52.3

161.0 154.6 D2-1 (7/28) 10:07.1 10:18.6
148.7 149.8 D2-2 (6/24) 10:29.2 10:27.2
154.0 147.6 D2-3 (4/16) 10:19.7 10:31.2
159.9 156.6 D2-4 (3/12) 10:09.2 10:15.0

163.9 168.3 4A-1 (2/14) 10:02.0 9:54.1
163.2 164.0 4A-2 (2/14) 10:03.2 10:01.8
153.6 154.6 4A SW (8/56) 10:20.4 10:18.7
142.0 146.5 4A-6 (2/14) 10:41.2 10:33.1
172.4 172.6 4A ER (2/14) 9:46.8 9:46.4

155.0 154.6 3A-1 (4/28) 10:17.9 10:18.6
157.8 159.4 3A-2 (7/49) 10:12.9 10:10.0
147.1 149.8 3A SW (5/35) 10:32.1 10:27.2

152.1 158.6 2A NW (3/21) 10:23.2 10:11.4
128.0 131.9 2A-3 (6/42) 11:06.3 10:59.3
145.8 154.1 2A-4 (3/21) 10:34.4 10:19.6
147.7 155.9 2A ER (4/28) 10:31.0 10:16.3

Notes: (in the following, I will be referring to the caliber of performances in 3200m terms instead of performance ratings, because that is generally easier to communicate to those that may not have followed me for very long)

In Division 1, it would take about a 10:00 to qualify as an individual in any region, except the Eastern Regional (which remained around a 9:45). In the current system, it was about a 10:20 to qualify out of the Southwest and a 10:40 out of the CBBN, and only slightly slower than 10:00 for WESCO and KingCo.

For Division 1 teams, you're looking at about a 10:15 average for the slowest regions and about a 9:50-9:55 for the Eastern Regional. That's actually significantly better in EVERY way than the current system, where the last team from the Eastern Regional was a 9:46 average and the slowest regions were 10:19 and 10:33. The WESCO also is relieved a little bit, as instead of a 9:54 being the last one in they are down to a more modest 10:04.

In Division 2, the top two regions are around 10:05-10:10 to qualify for state, while the weakest two regions are around 10:20-10:30. Keeping in mind that the most similar classification to D2 is 2A (it's essentially 2A plus the smaller half of 3A), the qualifiers were generally around 10:20-10:35 with the weakest district only taking an 11:05 to move on. That is far more equitable.

For Division 2 teams, you're looking at a 10:15 in the fastest region and a 10:30 in the slowest. At present, it's about a 10:10 in the fastest and 11:00 in the slowest, so that is a drastic improvement as well.

In short, my proposed 4-division regional system makes qualifying for state far more equitable, as well as improving the average quality of the field, without making it more difficult for the top regions to advance to state.

That's the rant for today. Check in tomorrow for the conclusion of this series.

Links to the other parts of this series: Part I - Part II - Part III - Part V

Yearly Rant - Improving the WIAA, part 3

Previously, I talked about the issues that needed to be addressed and how I would go about addressing them. In this post, I'll keep it short, and lay out how the new classification system would look. I'll save the "what if this was in place this year" topic for the next post(s).

First, a rough outline of rough enrollment ranges:

Division 1 (96) = 1115+ (w/ slight adjustments due to geography)
Division 2 (96) = 480-1115 (w/ slight adjustments due to geography)
Division 3 (94) = 150-480
Division 4 (94+) = 20-150

Here would be the rough Regional, District and League alignments in a new four class system. I tried to make the most reasonable leagues and divisions based primarily on geography (and current as well as past league affiliation), aiming for between 6-11 teams per league/division. Notable changes include Cedarcrest and the Olympia area schools in D2. I didn't look too closely at potential changes to D3 or D4, as I know less about those schools.
Asterisk next to a team expected to opt-up. Caret denotes placement due to geographical concern (8 schools between 1100-1160 with 3 going to D1 and 5 to D2).

D1 Region 1 - (District I) 15 teams, 1 League (2 divisions) = 3 spots to state

WESCO North (8): Lake Stevens (1787.75), Monroe (1595.13), Mount Vernon (1407.13), Glacier Peak (1343.29), Snohomish (1283.09), Arlington (1249.50), Marysville-Getchell (1198.62), Ferndale (1189.00)

WESCO South (7): Mariner (1842.11), Kamiak (1726.64), Henry Jackson (1629.76), Cascade (1336.86), Edmonds-Woodway (1216.64), Shorewood (1208.05), Meadowdale (1197.05)


D1 Region 2 - (District II) 30 teams, 2 Leagues (4 divisions) = 6 spots to state

KingCo South/east (7): Issaquah (1590.20), Skyline (1553.46), Redmond (1343.16), Mount Si (1322.63), Newport (1284.50), Eastlake (1233.59), Interlake (1162.78)

KingCo North/west (7): Inglemoor (1500.13), Bothell (1423.58), Woodinville (1313.43), Ballard (1265.43), Garfield (1263.52), Roosevelt (1236.82), Bellevue (1166.74)

NPSL Cascade (8): Tahoma (1712.25), Kentridge (1548.83), Kent Meridian (1506.28), Kentwood (1438.20), Mount Rainier (1252.51), Hazen (1194.76), Kentlake* (1019.32), Kennedy Catholic* (629.88)

NPSL Olympic (8): Jefferson (1289.82), Beamer (1254.88), Auburn (1202.75), Auburn Riverside (1179.16), Auburn Mountainview* (1095.09), Federal Way* (1091.15), Decatur* (1012.29), Enumclaw* (974.75)


D1 Region 3 - (District III/IV) 26 teams, 3 Leagues (3 divisions) = 6 spots to state

SPSL (8): Puyallup (1903.11), Rogers (1743.09), Emerald Ridge (1543.55), Graham-Kapowsin (1486.09), Curtis (1450.75), Sumner (1395.16), Spanaway Lake (1271.67), Bethel (1265.74)

Narrows League (9): South Kitsap (2024.38), Olympia (1356.86), Timberline (1326.21), Yelm (1290.00), Gig Harbor (1227.44), Mount Tahoma (1217.61), Stadium (1196.69), Lincoln (1183.09), Bellarmine Prep* (758.38)

GSHL (9): Skyview (1593.71), Camas (1568.75), Union (1531.70), Battle Ground (1495.36), Heritage (1350.50), Mountain View (1339.60), Evergreen (1268.20), Fort Vancouver (1210.05), Kelso (1160.25)


D1 Region 4 - (District V+) 25 teams, 3 Leagues (3 divisions) = 5 spots to state

CBBN (7): Wenatchee (1753.63), Moses Lake (1676.13), A.C. Davis (1625.26), Eisenhower (1616.49), Sunnyside (1410.00), Eastmont (1318.13), ^West Valley-Yakima (1107.88)

MCC (8): Chiawana (1903.33), Pasco (1521.30), Richland (1521.30), Hanford (1398.13), Walla Walla (1365.95), Kamiakin (1310.37), Southridge (1250.38), Kennewick (1184.50)

GSL (10): Central Valley (1635.11), Lewis & Clark (1472.92), Joel Ferris (1404.86), University (1389.64), Rogers (1265.70), Mead (1203.65), ^Mt Spokane (1125.23), ^Shadle Park (1116.37), North Central* (1045.27), Gonzaga Prep* (662.50)


D2 Region 1 - (District I/II) 36 teams, 4 Leagues (5 divsions) = 8 spots to state

WESCO (8): ^Oak Harbor (1132.38), ^Stanwood (1111.00), Everett (1097.39), Marysville-Pilchuck (1086.24), Lynnwood (1002.11), Shorecrest (986.83), Mountlake Terrace (961.95), Archbishop Murphy* (403.63)

NWC (9): Squalicum (980.14), Sedro-Woolley (910.25), Sehome (867.13), Burlington-Edison (840.38), Bellingham (760.11), Lynden (601.75), Anacortes (595.88), Lakewood (532.13), Blaine (484.13)

KingCo (6): ^Lake Washington (1128.62), Juanita (1081.12), Mercer Island (1075.50), Liberty (878.72), Sammamish (727.36), Cedarcrest (716.00)

Metro-1 (6): Holy Names/O'Dea (1052.00/702.26), Bainbridge (957.63), Bishop Blanchet (660.50), Seattle Prep (543.50), Eastside Catholic* (446.00), Lakeside* (424.38)

Metro-2 (7): Ingraham (923.09), Franklin (916.41), Nathan Hale (861.10), Chief Sealth (832.49), West Seattle (700.90), Cleveland (629.38), Rainier Beach (491.11)


D2 Region 2 - (District III) 27 teams, 2 Leagues (4 divisions) = 5 spots to state

SPSL North (6): Highline (971.58), Renton (958.20), Lindbergh (901.54), Evergreen (734.41), Tyee (670.13), Foster (650.75)

SPSL East (6): Bonney Lake (971.72), White River (872.00), Fife (802.25), Steilacoom (685.63), Orting (554.75), Eatonville (504.00)

SPSL West (6): Lakes (1055.54), Wilson (1013.63), Franklin Pierce (924.60), Clover Park (898.46), Washington (743.73), Foss (686.22)

Olympic League (9): Peninsula (1030.44), Central Kitsap (1012.94), Port Angeles (876.00), Olympic (863.24), Bremerton (860.63), North Kitsap (810.53), Sequim (685.50), Kingston (604.97), North Mason (527.50)


D2 Region 3 - (District IV) 18 teams, 2 Leagues (2 divisions) = 4 spots to state

Evergreen Conference (10): ^Shelton (1106.50), North Thurston (1070.55), Capital (1017.64), Tumwater (950.18), River Ridge (834.87), Centralia (809.50), Black Hills (726.82), Aberdeen (682.63), WF West (659.00), Rochester (496.38)

GSHL (8): ^Prairie (1108.64), Hudson's Bay (1003.71), Columbia River (935.28), Mark Morris (720.22), Washougal (693.50), RA Long (688.78), Ridgefield (533.13), Hockinson (484.13)


D2 Region 4 - (District V+) 15 teams, 2 Leagues (2 divisions) = 3 spots to state

CWAC (11): Selah (802.88), Othello (759.13), Ellensburg (735.13), Toppenish (723.13), Prosser (677.00), Grandview (669.38), East Valley-Yakima (656.13), Wapato (602.88), Quincy (584.38), Ephrata (500.38)

GNL (5): Cheney (905.25), East Valley-Spokane (787.13), West Valley-Spokane (777.13), Clarkston (591.50), Pullman (576.25)


I'm not going to type out Division 3 and 4 in their entirety (this is a really long post), but to give a breakdown for Division 3 at least:

D3 Region 1 (Districts 1-3) = 31 teams, 5 teams and 6 spots to state
Leagues = Nisqually/Olympic (9 teams: 445.07-171.75), NWC (7 teams: 409.88-159.63), Cascade (5 teams: 461.25-249.38), Emerald City (10 teams: 323.00-143.38*)

D3 Region 2 (District 4) = 23 teams, 3 leagues and 5 spots to state
Leagues = EvCo (8 teams: 253.00-154.25), Pacific (7 teams: 375.75-154.88), TriCo (8 teams: 476.75-122.25*)

D3 Region 3 (District 5) = 17 teams, 1 league (2 divisions) and 4 spots to state
Leagues = SCAC (17 teams, 2 divisions: 461.13-149.13* combined)

D3 Region 4 (District 6/7) = 23 teams, 2 leagues (3 divisions) and 5 spots to state
Leagues = Caribou Trail (10 teams: 359.63-153.63), NEAC (13 teams, 2 divisions: 441.25-151.25 combined)


Links to the other parts of this series: Part I - Part II - Part IV - Part V

Yearly Rant - Improving the WIAA, part 2

Continuing my rant on the problems with the WIAA and an idea on how they could be solved...

Last time, I pointed out six issues that need to be considered in order to make everything come together. In this post, I'll mention some of my thoughts on those issues.

Classifications: Throughout the history of the WIAA, there have been anywhere from 1 classification up to the current 6 classifications. Over the first 34 years of the WIAA's existence, it alternated between being a 1-class system or a 2-class system (1 class for 15 years total, and 2-class for 19 years total). From 1958-1968, it moved to a 3 class system, but soon expanded to sit at 4 classes. The WIAA stayed at 4 classifications for much longer than any other amount, sticking with it from 1969 until 1997 (28 years). From 1998-2006, there were 5 classifications (and perhaps because this is when I was in high school that seemed to make sense to me). In 2007, the WIAA moved up to the current 6 classifications.

Six classifications, as mentioned, is sometimes a little too watered down in my opinion. Granted, some situations it isn't, but in sports where there is a bit less depth it can become apparent, and this is especially true when tied in with the aforementioned qualification issues. Would five classes be better? Maybe, but I think the big winner is four classifications. That seems to be the number that can solve a lot of these problems.

How should classifications be determined? I'm not really a fan of using how competitive a program is to force a team up/down in the classification, nor do I think it's really necessary to separate public schools from private schools, especially in a state like Washington where there are so few private schools (and some are pretty well isolated from the rest). Socio-economics, maybe, but I'll wait to see how the Oregon experiment with that unfolds on a longer scale before changing anything (and remember, changing the least amount possible is going to be the easiest way to solve the problem - this is a topic that can be addressed down the road). Allowing teams to opt down due to geographic concerns might make some sense, but can lead to undesired results: just take a look at Summit OR, who has been a 6A school by size for quite a while but has been able to dominate the 5A scene because they are geographically isolated - not necessarily fair to the other 5A schools in the state, and prevents the best from matching up with the best at the state level. In the effort to reduce the amount of initial change necessary, I'd say mostly continue using pure enrollment figures for the time being, but the WIAA should make slight adjustments when necessary (near the borders of the classifications) in order to help foster more equitable balance around the state. Also, maybe keep an eye on Oregon's socio-economic factoring to see if that is something the WIAA should explore in the future.

School membership in leagues: assigned or formed? A large part of the Oregon reclassification process every year seems to involve a lot of bickering about what schools should be assigned to what leagues... while I do believe there is some merit to that (such as the WIAA making an executive decision that Archbishop Murphy should be allowed entry into the more competitive 2A Cascade-NWC Football league, for example), overall it might be more trouble than it's worth, and I don't think the WIAA should determine TOO much about what schools should be in what leagues, so I'd say to continue with the status quo when it comes to forming leagues (aside from maybe suggesting initial league placement). However, I do think the WIAA should be able to step in and move Leagues to their proper District, if for no other reason than a more equitable qualification system. A prime example: the NPSL, being made up entirely of King County schools, should be part of District 2 - which is suppose to encompass all of King County.

How should teams get to the state level? Essentially the same format as we have now, except for one format change: 4 regional qualifiers in every classification. Teams compete within their league, then move to a Regional Qualifier, and then to the State level. This would require an additional structural change: the WIAA determines which leagues/districts combine for each regional (and it would be determined by geography). The reason for that change is necessary, and obvious from the point I brought up in the beginning of the story: not all leagues are going to want to combine with other leagues, particularly if they feel they will lose spots to state when doing so because their teams are weaker. By having the WIAA dictate regional assignment, leagues are no longer able to deny more equitable solutions for other leagues, a prime example being that the CBBN would have to resume being a part of the Eastern Regional along with the GSL and MCC, even if they are afraid of the big bad GSL teams. If the WIAA wasn't able to force the regional assignments, then the regional system would quickly become inequitable, especially since there needs to be exactly 4 regionals in order to take place, due to the next point.

How many teams should be represented at the state level? Personally, I like the total amount of teams that are represented at the state meet: 72-96 teams in most sports (often depending on whether or not 1B and 2B, and maybe 1A/2A, isn't combined). In a state where there are between 320-400 teams competing in any given sport, that seems like a reasonable number (about 20-25%). If the WIAA went with a 4 classification system, then I think the best solution is 20 teams per classification (meaning 80 teams in total, or slightly less if there aren't enough teams in the smallest classification). That might seem like an odd amount if you're coming up with a tournament bracket, but there is an easy solution that makes perfect sense when combined with the last point: In a tournament bracket, all regional champions get a first round bye. This would reward teams from succeeding at the regional level, which has many benefits (including but not limited to making it all the more important to do well at the regional rather than just coast by). Building upon that sentiment, a slight change to the way allocations are distributed: to get to the 20 team field, simply add in the regional champion and use the current 16-team multiplier process to account for the rest of the allocations.

As for whether it should be the same for every sport... personally, I think it is easier for the process to be uniform, particularly when it comes to league and classification alignment. Again, less changes often make it easier to get people to agree.


As for how that would all unfold, I'll leave that to another post, as this one is pretty extensive already.

Links to the other parts of this series: Part I - Part III - Part IV - Part V

Yearly Rant - Improving the WIAA, part 1

Time for my yearly rant. My apologies for the many of you who don't actually care about any of this. Good news is, this isn't required reading. It's okay. I just wanted to put the thought out there (once again). For those of you who are interested, feel free to continue reading. The topic: fixing the WIAA to improve the state qualification and state championship.

Here in Washington, our classification and state qualifying system is rather mediocre. It's a little watered down, although certainly not nearly as bad as some states (I'm looking at you, Alabama and Mississippi. 7 Classifications? Really?). Additionally, the break lines between the classifications don't always make sense, although that obviously can't always be avoided. Perhaps the largest problem, though, is in the state qualification system: Leagues/Districts are allowed to qualify on their own to state if they want, regardless of how large they are, and have the right to agree or not agree to combine with other leagues/districts should they so desire.

Often, when leagues/districts feel like they are putting their member schools at a disadvantage by combining, they will elect to qualify on their own, leaving other, often smaller, leagues/districts to fend for themselves. Some might think this is not a problem, but I would argue that there are two notable problems with this situation, at least from the standpoint of wanting the best teams to be represented at the state level.

One problem is size: some leagues are rather isolated geographically, meaning they tend to have fewer schools, and it's harder to combine with other leagues due to longer drive time - an example of this is the Greater Spokane League, which is home to several quality athletic programs, particularly in cross country. There are only two other leagues within 200 miles: the Mid-Columbia Conference (for out of state folk, just consider this more or less "South Central WA"), and the Columbia Basin-Big Nine League (out of state folk can consider this "Central/North-Central WA"). It's a really long drive for the GSL to combine with any other leagues, as they pretty much had to this year (when they drove to Seattle to combine with District 2 in the 3A classification ... a 265 mile drive just to try and get a second representative to the state meet)! This is further exasperated when the classifications are as small as they are: the CBBN doesn't even have any 3A schools!

The other problem is the reality that some leagues are simply better at some sports than others. By choosing to isolate themselves if they aren't a strong league, so they get to send more teams to state, they are in effect weakening the overall quality of the state field. This is also true in that better leagues might sometimes struggle to find another league willing to combine with them, leaving some very good programs sitting at home that might have been able to challenge for a good finish at the state level. It's pretty simple logic to realize that, when you combine the allocations and leagues in order to qualify for state, you are often going to end up sending better representatives from that combined league/district.

In order to tackle this issue in it's entirety, you have to consider a few things first.

• How many classifications should there be?
• Should classifications be determined purely by size, or should there be other factors taken into account including but not limited to geography, history of competitiveness, and socio-economic situation? Private vs. Public? Allow teams to Opt-up and/or Opt-down, and should that be on a sport-by-sport level or be more all-inclusive?
• Should schools still organize themselves in leagues as they wish?
• How many teams should be represented at the state level?
• How should teams get to the state level?
• Should it be the same for every sport?

In general, I think the easiest pill to swallow would be to change as little as is necessary in order to achieve the desired results. You can further tweak things once you get the foundation in place.



This was already a pretty long post, so I'll break this rant up into a few different posts over a few days.

Links to the other parts of this series: Part II - Part III - Part IV - Part V

Updated Sun Willows All-Time List

I haven't updated this in a while, so here is an updated Sun Willows (Washington State) All-Time List!

Brief history: Sun Willows has been the site of the Washington State Meet since 1988, and has been running a ~5k course since 1997. There have been some changes resulting in a significantly slow course a couple of years (2006/2007, and I believe 2005 as well?), but this post will only deal with the raw times run.


Boys Individuals at/under 15:30 =

1. 14:31.70 - Tanner Anderson, 12 - North Central - 2014 - 3A #1
2. 14:44.83 - Tanner Anderson, 11 - North Central - 2013 - 3A #1
3. 14:45.16 - Joe Hardy, 12 - Seattle Prep - 2013 - 3A #2
4. 14:46.65 - John Dressel, 12 - Mt Spokane - 2014 - 3A #2
5. 14:58.40 - Anthony Armstrong, 12 - Kamiakin - 2011 - 3A #1
6. 14:59.30 - Nathan Weitz, 12 - Shadle Park - 2011 - 3A #2
7. 15:02.00 - Justin Janke, 12 - North Central - 2015 - 3A #1
8. 15:02.30 - Andrew Gardner, 12 - Mead - 2012 - 4A #1
9. 15:03.00 - Jacob Smith, 12 - Wenatchee - 2011 - 4A #1
10. 15:05.36 - John Dressel, 11 - Mt Spokane - 2013 - 3A #3
11. 15:05.90 - Izaic Yorks, 12 - Lakes - 2011 - 3A #3
12. 15:06.00 - Shane Moskowitz, 12 - Central Kitsap - 2009 - 4A #1
13. 15:06.37 - Logan Carroll, 12 - Gig Harbor - 2013 - 4A #1
14. 15:07.00 - Andrew Gardner, 11 - Mead - 2011 - 4A #2
15. 15:09.00 - Kenji Bierig, 12 - Lewis and Clark - 2010 - 4A #1
16. 15:09.28 - Wolfgang Beck, 12 - Gig Harbor - 2013 - 4A #2
17. 15:10.00 - Adam Tenforde, 12 - Hanford - 1998 - 3A #1
18. 15:11.30 - Nathan Weitz, 11 - Shadle Park - 2010 - 3A #1
19. 15:12.70 - Yacine Guermali, 12 - Camas - 2016 - 4A #1
20. 15:13.00 - Andrew Snyder, 12 - Kamiakin - 2014 - 3A #3
21. 15:13.50 - Santos Vargas, 12 - Eisenhower - 2011 - 4A #3
22. 15:13.60 - Patrick Gibson, 12 - Squalicum - 2012 - 2A #1
23. 15:14.24 - Tristan Peloquin, 11 - Gig Harbor - 2013 - 4A #3
24. 15:14.90 - Jack Yearian, 12 - Bellarmine Prep - 2015 - 4A #1
25. 15:15.00 - Ben Johnston, 12 - North Central - 2009 - 3A #1
26. 15:15.20 - Aaron Roe, 12 - Henry Jackson - 2014 - 4A #1
27. 15:15.39 - John Rodeheffer, 12 - Oak Harbor - 2014 - 3A #4
28. 15:16.30 - Wolfgang Beck, 11 - Gig Harbor - 2012 - 4A #2
29. 15:16.60 - Poli Baltazar, 12 - Aberdeen - 2012 - 2A #2
30. 15:16.90 - Tyler King, 12 - Coupeville - 2010 - 1A #1
31. 15:17.89 - Taylor (Kai) Wilmot, 12 - North Central - 2013 - 3A #4
32. 15:17.97 - Michael Williams, 12 - Richland - 2013 - 4A #4
33. 15:18.00 - Ian Johnson, 12 - University - 1998 - 4A #1
34. 15:18.00 - Micahel Kiter, 11 - Shadle Park - 1999 - 4A #1
35. 15:18.00 - Michael Miller, 12 - Mt Rainier - 2008 - 3A #1
36. 15:18.00 - Mack Young, 11 - Redmond - 2008 - 4A #1
37. 15:18.00 - Sean Knapp, 12 - Gig Harbor - 1998 - 4A #2
38. 15:18.40 - Joe Hardy, 11 - Seattle Prep - 2012 - 3A #1
39. 15:18.50 - Korey Krotzer, 12 - Auburn Riverside - 2011 - 4A #4
40. 15:18.80 - Nathan Beamer, 12 - Arlington - 2015 - 3A #2
41. 15:18.90 - Wolfgang Beck, 10 - Gig Harbor - 2011 - 4A #5
42. 15:19.00 - Matthew Watkins, 12 - Henry Jackson - 2016 - 4A #2
43. 15:20.00 - Drew O'Donoghue-McDonald, 12 - Seattle Prep - 2009 - 3A #2
44. 15:20.20 - Peter Hogan, 12 - Bishop Blanchet - 2015 - 3A #3
45. 15:20.40 - Vince Hamilton, 12 - North Central - 2010 - 3A #2
46. 15:21.00 - Shane Moskowitz, 11 - Central Kitsap - 2008 - 4A #2
47. 15:21.18 - Andrew Foerder, 12 - Nathan Hale - 2013 - 3A #5
48. 15:21.40 - Joe Hardy, 10 - Seattle Prep - 2011 - 3A #4
49. 15:21.60 - Colby Gilbert, 12 - Skyview - 2012 - 4A #3
50. 15:21.80 - Curtis King, 12 - Peninsula - 2011 - 3A #5
51. 15:22.00 - Conner Peloquin, 12 - Gig Harbor - 2009 - 4A #2
52. 15:22.02 - Drew Schreiber, 12 - Eisenhower - 2013 - 4A #5
53. 15:22.10 - Keith Williams, 11 - North Central - 2011 - 3A #6
54. 15:22.21 - Nicholas Hauger, 12 - Shadle Park - 2013 - 3A #6
55. 15:22.26 - Charlie Barringer, 12 - Bothell - 2014 - 4A #2
56. 15:22.30 - Tibebu Proctor, 12 - Northwest - 2016 - 1A #1
57. 15:22.50 - Nathan Pixler, 12 - Eastlake - 2015 - 4A #2
58. 15:23.10 - Joe Waskom, 10 - Mt Si - 2016 - 4A #3
59. 15:23.44 - Miler Haller, 12 - Edmonds-Woodway - 2014 - 3A #5
60. 15:23.90 - Cameron Stanish, 12 - Garfield - 2013 - 4A #6
61. 15:24.00 - Evan Garber, 12 - Mead - 2003 - 4A #1
62. 15:24.00 - Kelly Spady, 12 - Kamiak - 2004 - 4A #1
63. 15:24.00 - David Kinsella, 12 - Inglemoor - 2003 - 4A #2
64. 15:24.00 - Robbie Barany, 12 - Eisenhower - 2004 - 4A #2
65. 15:24.38 - Briton Demars, 12 - Central Valley - 2014 - 4A #3
66. 15:24.40 - Anthony Armstrong, 11 - Kamiakin - 2010 - 3A #3
67. 15:24.40 - Nicholas Boersma, 12 - Wenatchee - 2011 - 4A #6
68. 15:24.70 - Jeff Bastian, 12 - Glacier Peak - 2010 - 3A #4
69. 15:24.90 - Sumner Goodwin, 12 - Lewis and Clark - 2012 - 4A #4
70. 15:25.00 - Andrew Kimpel, 12 - North Central - 2008 - 3A #2
71. 15:25.00 - Laef Barnes, 11 - Mead - 2003 - 4A #3
72. 15:25.00 - James Konugres, 11 - Ballard - 2015 - 3A #4
73. 15:25.90 - Graeme Schroeder, 12 - Tahoma - 2015 - 4A #3
74. 15:26.10 - Andrew Gardner, 10 - Mead - 2010 - 4A #2
75. 15:26.10 - Hunter Johnson, 12 - Mt Spokane - 2011 - 3A #7
76. 15:26.50 - Jamie Coughlin, 12 - Garfield - 2012 - 4A #5
77. 15:26.97 - Peter Kesting, 11 - Olympia - 2013 - 4A #7
78. 15:27.00 - Julian-Blake Cowan, 12 - Auburn Riverside - 2008 - 4A #3
79. 15:27.30 - Chad Stevens, 12 - East Valley-Spokane - 2014 - 2A #1
80. 15:27.64 - Tristan Peloquin, 12 - Gig Harbor - 2014 - 4A #4
81. 15:28.00 - Chris Borg, 12 - Peninsula - 2009 - 3A #3
82. 15:28.09 - Riley Campbell, 12 - Tahoma - 2013 - 4A #8
83. 15:28.56 - Cole Christman, 12 - Wenatchee - 2014 - 4A #5
84. 15:28.80 - Patrick Gibson, 11 - Squalicum - 2011 - 2A #1
85. 15:28.80 - Zak Kindl, 11 - Lewis and Clark - 2015 - 4A #4
86. 15:29.00 - Matt Harriman, 12 - Omak - 1999 - 2A #1
87. 15:29.00 - Alexander Avila, 12 - North Central - 2009 - 3A #4
88. 15:29.00 - Andrew Gonzales, 12 - Southridge - 2008 - 4A #4
89. 15:29.20 - Phillip Fishburn, 12 - Kamiakin - 2015 - 3A #5
90. 15:29.62 - Mahmoud Moussa, 12 - Gig Harbor - 2013 - 4A #9
91. 15:29.70 - Sumner Goodwin, 11 - Lewis and Clark - 2011 - 4A #7
92. 15:29.72 - Devon Grove, 12 - Lake Washington - 2013 - 2A #1
93. 15:30.00 - Jesse Fayant, 12 - Mead - 2001 - 4A #1
94. 15:30.00 - Jeff Howard, 12 - North Central - 2008 - 3A #3
95. 15:30.00 - Charles Cummings, 12 - Eisenhower - 2003 - 4A #4
96. 15:30.00 - Kyle Boe, 12 - Columbia River - 2009 - 3A #5
97. 15:30.00 - Simon Sorensen, 12 - Skyline - 2008 - 4A #5

Girls Individuals at/under 18:00 =

1. 17:01.10 - Alexa Efraimson, 11 - Camas - 2013 - 4A #1
2. 17:03.60 - Amy-Eloise Neale, 12 - Glacier Peak - 2012 - 3A #1
3. 17:10.60 - Katie Knight, 11 - North Central - 2011 - 3A #1
4. 17:23.80 - Lindsey Bradley, 12 - Richland - 2014 - 4A #1
5. 17:24.70 - Jordan McPhee, 10 - Mt Rainier - 2011 - 4A #1
6. 17:28.80 - Amy-Eloise Neale, 11 - Glacier Peak - 2011 - 3A #2
7. 17:31.80 - Amy-Eloise Neale, 10 - Glacier Peak - 2010 - 3A #1
8. 17:33.90 - Maddie Meyers, 11 - Northwest - 2010 - 1A #1
9. 17:34.10 - Taylor Roe, 10 - Lake Stevens - 2016 - 4A #1
10. 17:34.20 - Alexa Efraimson, 10 - Camas - 2012 - 4A #1
11. 17:35.00 - Megan O'Reilly, 12 - Mt Spokane - 2005 - 4A #1
12. 17:38.00 - Katie Knight, 10 - North Central - 2010 - 3A #2
13. 17:40.90 - Andrea Masterson, 12 - Lakeside (Seattle) - 2014 - 3A #1
14. 17:44.00 - Jordan Oakes, 12 - Holy Names Academy - 2016 - 3A #1
15. 17:44.40 - Tansey Lystad, 12 - Inglemoor - 2010 - 4A #1
16. 17:44.70 - Katie Knight, 12 - North Central - 2012 - 3A #2
17. 17:49.39 - Amber Rose, 12 - Inglemoor - 2014 - 4A #2
18. 17:50.20 - Anastasia Kosykh, 9 - Eastlake - 2010 - 4A #2
19. 17:50.83 - Andrea Masterson, 11 - Lakeside (Seattle) - 2013 - 3A #1
20. 17:53.00 - Brie Felnagle, 12 - Bellarmine Prep - 2004 - 4A #1
21. 17:53.50 - Jordan Oakes, 11 - Holy Names Academy - 2015 - 3A #1
22. 17:53.70 - Katie Thronson, 11 - Lewis and Clark - 2016 - 4A #2
23. 17:54.60 - Maddie Meyers, 12 - Northwest - 2011 - 1A #1
24. 17:55.73 - Sophie Cantine, 10 - Lakeside (Seattle) - 2014 - 3A #2
25. 17:55.90 - Alexa Efraimson, 9 - Camas - 2011 - 3A #3
26. 17:56.10 - Taylor Roe, 9 - Kamiak - 2015 - 4A #1
27. 17:56.57 - Lindsey Bradley, 11 - Richland - 2013 - 4A #2
28. 17:58.00 - Anna Dailey, 12 - Garfield - 2009 - 4A #1
29. 17:58.16 - RaynJoy Norton, 12 - Burlington-Edison - 2013 - 2A #1
30. 17:58.20 - Katie Bianchini, 12 - Glacier Peak - 2012 - 3A #3
31. 18:00.00 - Alyssa Andrews, 12 - Gig Harbor - 2008 - 4A #1

Boys Teams at/under 79:30 =

1. 76:58.89 - Gig Harbor 2013 (Mark Wieczorek) = NXN #1
2. 77:24.77 - North Central 2013 (Jon Knight) = NXN #8
3. 77:45.42 - North Central 2014 (Jon Knight) = NXN #3
4. 78:01.00 - North Central 2008 (Jon Knight) = NXN #1
5. 78:46.00 - North Central 2009 (Jon Knight) = NXN #7
6. 78:51.30 - North Central 2010 (Jon Knight) = NXN #6
7. 78:54.90 - North Central 2012 (Jon Knight) = NXN #3
8. 78:56.52 - Kamiakin 2014 (Matt Rexus)
9. 78:58.90 - North Central 2011 (Jon Knight) = NXN #7
10. 79:01.90 - Tahoma 2015 (Jeff Brady)
11. 79:02.10 - Gig Harbor 2011 (Mark Wieczorek) = NXN #15
12. 79:02.50 - North Central 2015 (Jon Knight)
13. 79:09.00 - University 1998 (Bob Barbero)
14. 79:10.99 - Kamiakin 2013 (Matt Rexus)
15. 79:16.84 - Nathan Hale 2013 (Cary Stidham)
16. 79:18.00 - Joel Ferris 2004 (Mike Hadway) = NTN #13
17. 79:19.00 - Joel Ferris 2009 (Mike Hadway) = NXN #2
18. 79:21.40 - Bellarmine Prep 2015 (Matt Ellis)
19. 79:29.20 - Kamiakin 2011 (Matt Rexus)

Other notables (NXN/NTN Qualifiers)

80:02.10 - Kamiakin 2012 (Matt Rexus) = NXN #7
80:07.90 - Lewis & Clark 2010 (Michael Lee) = NXN #15
80:11.00 - Eisenhower 2004 (Phil English) = NTN #9
80:15.00 - Mead 2004 (Pat Tyson) = NTN #3
80:58.00 - Joel Ferris 2006 (Mike Hadway) = NTN #3
81:08.00 - Joel Ferris 2005 (Mike Hadway) = NTN #10
81:32.00 - Mead 2005 (Pat Tyson) = NTN #4
81:46.00 - Mead 2006 (Pat Tyson) = NTN #5



Girls Top 10 Teams Times  =

1. 92:49.60 - Camas 2012 (Mike Hickey)
2. 93:02.54 - Camas 2014 (Laurie Porter)
3. 93:24.84 - Camas 2013 (Laurie Porter)
4. 93:33.80 - Glacier Peak 2010 (Dan Parker)
5. 93:40.90 - Camas 2015 (Laurie Porter)
6. 93:58.30 - Glacier Peak 2012 (Dan Parker)
7. 94:00.60 - Glacier Peak 2011 (Dan Parker)
8. 94:14.14 - Issaquah 2014 (Gwen Robertson)
9. 94:27.36 - Bellarmine Prep 2013 (Matt Ellis)
10. 94:38.20 - Camas 2011 (Mike Hickey)

Other notables (NXN/NTN Qualifiers)

95:27.00 - Bellarmine Prep 2004 (Matt Ellis) = NTN #4
96:29.00 - Gig Harbor 2005 (Patty Ley) = NTN #7



Class Records =

FR Boys = 15:37.20 - Tristan Peloquin, 9 - Gig Harbor - 2011 - 4A #11
SO Boys = 15:18.90 - Wolfgang Beck, 10 - Gig Harbor - 2011 - 4A #5
JR Boys = 14:44.83 - Tanner Anderson, 11 - North Central - 2013 - 3A #1
SR Boys = 14:31.70 - Tanner Anderson, 12 - North Central - 2014 - 3A #1

FR Girls = 17:50.20 - Anastasia Kosykh, 9 - Eastlake - 2010 - 4A #2
SO Girls = 17:24.70 - Jordan McPhee, 10 - Mt Rainier - 2011 - 4A #1
JR Girls = 17:01.10 - Alexa Efraimson, 11 - Camas - 2013 - 4A #1
SR Girls = 17:03.60 - Amy-Eloise Neale, 12 - Glacier Peak - 2012 - 3A #1

Updated Top 10s for NXN and WA State

Here is an updated list of the Top 10 programs at NXN and Washington State (over the last 10 years only). This is something I've done for a few years now, where I take the average scores and adjust by the # of times the teams have qualified. In order to keep things balanced between qualifiers and non-qualifiers, I include a max score of 330 (so any team that scores 335 is counted as scoring 330, as well as any non-qualifying team). The purpose here is to find who is consistently towards the top.

For Washington, I take these scores from the 22 team Power Merge from every year (done by scoring every team, removing all except the top 30, and then all except the top 22 teams).

Just for fun, since it is topic that has been brought up on some message boards recently (when talking about percieved advantages some programs have over others), I'll also include enrollment statistics: Average class size, as well as the # of classes each team can draw from for the NXN chart.

Average Score - School (Times Qualified) - Average Class Size / # of classes

Boys NXN Nationals Top 10 Programs:

1. 221.0 - American Fork UT (8) - Class size: 698.67/4
2. 225.3 - North Central WA (8) - Class size: 348.42/4
3. 240.2 - Christian Brothers NJ (7) - Class size: 384.50/4
4. 261.8 - Arcadia CA (5) - Class size: 856.00/4
5. 267.0 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY (9) - Class size: 353.67/6
6. 269.3 - The Woodlands TX (9) - Class size: 1070.00/4
7. 279.5 - Davis UT (6) - Class size: 787.67/4
8. 289.8 - Neuqua Valley IL (5) - Class size: 941.00/4
9. 290.4 - Dana Hills CA (7) - Class size: 669.75/4
10. 290.8 - York IL (6) - Class size: 660.75/4

Additional note: all are public schools except Christian Brothers NJ


Girls NXN Nationals Top 10 Programs:

1.   65.0 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY (10) - Class size: 353.67/6
2. 208.5 - Saratoga Springs NY (9) - Class size: 533.00/6
3. 245.9 - Carmel IN (7) - Class size: 1207.50/4
4. 251.2 - Fort Collins CO (7) - Class size: 437.50/4
5. 255.3 - Saugus CA (7) - Class size: 582.50/4
6. 275.6 - Great Oak CA (6) - Class size: 868.25/4
7. 280.7 - Tatnall DE (6) - Class size: 60.75/6
8. 289.0 - Wayzata MN (3) - Class size: 769.50/6
9. 291.7 - Davis CA (3) - Class size: 561.00/4
10. 297.6 - Southlake Carroll TX (8) - Class size: 672.88/4

Additional note: all are public schools except Tatnall DE

Boys Washington State Top 10 Programs:

1.   93.4 - North Central (10) - Class size: 348.42
2. 232.5 - Eisenhower (10) - Class size: 538.83
3. 240.9 - Gig Harbor (9) - Class size: 409.15
4. 240.9 - Kamiakin (8) - Class size: 436.79
5. 259.5 - Joel Ferris (5) - Class size: 468.29
6. 262.5 - Seattle Prep (7) - Class size: 181.17
7. 275.5 - Central Valley (7) - Class size: 545.04
8. 277.4 - Tahoma (8) - Class size: 570.75
9. 280.2 - Henry Jackson (8) - Class size: 543.25
10. 283.4 - Sehome (10) - Class size: 289.04

Additional note: all are public schools except Seattle Prep

Girls Washington State Top 10 Programs:

1. 209.0 - Camas (6) - Class size: 522.92
2. 217.4 - Glacier Peak (9) - Class size: 447.76
3. 231.8 - Tahoma (10) - Class size: 570.75
4. 255.4 - Bellarmine Prep (8) - Class size: 252.79
5. 255.7 - Sehome (9) - Class size: 289.04
6. 264.2 - Eastlake (7) - Class size: 411.2
7. 283.4 - Gig Harbor (4) - Class size: 409.15
8. 283.6 - Issaquah (4) - Class size: 530.07
9. 287.4 - Central Valley (9) - Class size: 545.04
10. 292.9 - Redmond (6) - Class size: 447.72

Additional note: all are public schools except Bellarmine Prep. Also, Glacier Peak is only 9 years old, meaning they have been in the Washington Top 22 every single year of their existence - kudos to Coach Parker!

Trends I note:

-School size is important, but only to a degree: the best programs in the nation range from about 350 students per class to about 1200 per class, with the lone exception of the Tatnall DE girls. Within Washington, it's a similar story: between roughly 300-575, with the exceptions of two private schools.

-Public schools dominate this list, with exactly 1 private school in each of the four rankings.

-The effect of being able to work with/draw from more than 4 classes isn't really much of an issue on the boys side with only 1 program having that capability, but it is another story on the girls side as half of top eight NXN Girls programs come from states where middle school athletes can train and compete with high school athletes.

-Every single NXN region has at least one program in the top 10, suggesting that NO region has any significant advantage/disadvantage due to either travel or layout/condition of the course, despite often-mentioned complaints otherwise :)

My takes from that enrollment data:

-School size doesn't matter much once you reach a critical level.

-Small sized private schools might be better able to compete with larger programs than their public counterparts

-Getting access to better training for middle school boys has less of an impact than does middle school girls, and the impact on a program in the latter case seems to play a notable role.

Those points are not meant to take away from those programs with those advantages in any way - it always takes a very good coaching staff and a developed culture to establish a program as strong as those mentioned - but just wanted to quickly address the topic du jour (jure? it's been a while since I studied french).

Also, here are the average Regional scores at NXN (sorted by average AQ score) :

Average AQ Score - Region - Average Top-2 Score - # of teams under 331 points / # of teams - % of teams sub-331

Boys Regions =

1. 222.70 - Southwest - 216.40 - 22/25 - 88.00%
2. 247.00 - Northwest - 247.00 - 16/22 - 72.73%
3. 255.95 - Midwest - 241.35 - 24/28 - 85.71%
4. 266.65 - California - 247.30 - 21/32 - 65.63%
5. 279.50 - Northeast - 279.50 - 15/25 - 60.00%
6. 288.30 - New York - 285.30 - 15/22 - 72.73%
7. 310.75 - South - 301.40 - 13/24 - 54.17%
8. 316.60 - Heartland - 316.60 - 14/22 - 63.64%
9. 358.90 - Southeast - 358.90 - 7/20 - 35.00%

Girls Regions =

1. 140.10 - New York - 139.05 - 28/31 - 90.32%
2. 251.50 - California - 241.80 - 20/28 - 71.43%
3. 262.10 - Southwest - 254.15 - 19/25 - 76.00%
4. 276.95 - Midwest - 268.55 - 16/26 - 61.54%
5. 315.05 - Southeast - 306.15 - 12/23 - 52.17%
6. 325.05 - Heartland - 325.05 - 11/20 - 55.00%
7. 341.55 - Northwest - 332.90 - 12/21 - 57.14%
8. 364.45 - Northeast - 354.75 - 10/23 - 43.48%
9. 377.20 - South - 373.80 - 5/23 - 21.74%

NXN: Quick post-race thoughts

Just a couple quick post-race thoughts as I look through the results...

Seems I overestimated the South, Heartland and California races to various degrees. Also, Summit OR continues to run poorly at Nationals after stepping up big time at NXR, as they seemingly do every year...

First guess is that the girls NXN race is probably going to end up around 200.0 = 15:35. Boys probably around 15:45-15:48.

Brie Oakley: WOW. What an incredible performance by her. Probably looking at a 169 or 170 rating from me.

Casey Clinger: First multiple time boys champion. Took control of the race, looks like about a 205 or 206 rating from me.

Girls (Team) MVP: Sophie Ryan (FM). Had a huge day, going from #5 at NXR to their #2, and rating-wise going from about a 135 to a 147. If there is any single reason as to how FM turned what could have been a decently competitive race into a blowout, it was her.

Boys (Team) MVP: Orrin Clark (Bozeman). Bozeman's #3-5 pack all ran better at nationals than they did at NXR, and that was the real story of the meet (for boys teams). In particular, though, was Orrin Clark (#5 at NXR, #4 at NXN), who was slowed late in the season due to a hip injury, but seemed to be at 100% at nationals. The best point of comparison is how Bozeman's pack did vs. Summit's #1 at Nationals, Scott Kinkade: at NXR, Kinkade ran 15:58.1 while Bozeman's #3-5 pack ran between 16:02.6-16:16.5; Kinkade ran a similar race at Nationals (one of only 2 boys to do so for Summit, along with their #6) by finishing in 16:31.0, but Bozeman's #3-5 pack all caught up to him, ranging from 16:28.5 to 16:36.6.

At a race like NXN, the teams that win are generally the teams that place the bulk of their runners ahead of the bigger packs. FM's Sophie Ryan moved from a projected #78 all the way up to #29, and Bozeman's Orrin Clark moved up from #109 up to #58. Nearly 50 spots improvement, most of which were team runners, means they were the biggest keys to the two winning teams performances today.


Quick note regarding American Fork: Some might view this as a disappointing performance for them (going into the race favored by 20-25 points over Bozeman, according to my ratings and assuming their #5 was back to normal). However, I think the Bozeman pack made far more difference than anyone from AF being a little off. AF's #4 might have been about 15 places behind where he should have been, but that was about it. With the final point difference being 36 points, it was clearly just Bozeman's day.

NXN Projections - a compilation

I'm not going to do my usual in-depth look at projecting NXN, because as I said in my other post I already have a rough idea of the groupings and I am not going to take the time to refine it as much as usual this year. However, what I will do is post a quick comparison of my (VERY ROUGH) projections along with some other notable projections: Bill Meylan's over at Tullyrunners, Paul Schmitz/Adam Kopet at DyeStat (Boys/Girls), and whoever is doing the rankings these days at Milesplit.

I'll also include a little math to show the general trends/consensus, or how varying the different projections have each team finishing.

My apologies in advance for for any poor formatting. I will put in bold the teams that we all seemed to roughly agree on (teams with sample variability of < 6).

tl;dr summary:

My girls projections appear to be a bit more favorable towards the Southwest and South while slightly less optimistic for the Midwest and Southeast; Milesplit seems to be significantly higher on the Southeast and slightly lower on the Northwest than the rest of us; Meylan and DyeStat typically were closer to the median rankings.

My boys projections appear to be a bit more favorable towards the South while less optimistic towards the Northeast/New York and the Southeast; Milesplit seems to be higher on the Heartland, while DyeStat seems to be a slightly lower on the Southwest. Meylan was all over the place compared to the rest of us (probably because he looked deeper into what the teams have done the rest of the year) with regards to California.

Full breakdown:

Boys =

(Variability) | Median | Average | Team | Watchout | Meylan | DyeStat | Milesplit

(0.25)  |  1.0 |  1.25 | American Fork UT         = 1 | 2 | 1 | 1
(1.58)  |  2.0 |  2.25 | Neuqua Valley IL         = 4 | 1 | 2 | 2
(1.58)  |  4.0 |  3.75 | Bozeman MT               = 2 | 5 | 4 | 4
(4.67)  |  4.5 |  5.00 | Brentwood TN             = 5 | 4 | 3 | 8
(2.92)  |  5.5 |  5.25 | Great Oak CA             = 6 | 3 | 5 | 7
(2.92)  |  5.5 |  5.25 | The Woodlands TX         = 3 | 6 | 7 | 5
(36.92) |  6.5 |  8.25 | Christian Brothers NJ    = 17 | 7 | 6 | 3
(2.00)  |  8.5 |  8.00 | Wayzata MN               = 8 | 9 | 9 | 6
(3.58)  |  8.5 |  9.25 | Downers Grove North IL   = 9 | 8 | 8 | 12
(4.00)  | 11.0 | 10.00 | Summit OR                = 7 | 11 | 11 | 11
(19.00) | 12.5 | 13.50 | Davis UT                 = 10 | 15 | 19 | 10
(7.58)  | 13.5 | 13.25 | Dana Hills CA            = 16 | 10 | 12 | 15
(17.67) | 14.0 | 14.50 | Liverpool NY             = 15 | 13 | 10 | 20
(21.67) | 14.5 | 14.50 | St. Xavier KY            = 20 | 16 | 13 | 9
(7.58)  | 14.5 | 14.75 | Mahomet-Seymour IL       = 18 | 12 | 16 | 13
(3.00)  | 15.5 | 15.50 | Springville UT           = 14 | 17 | 17 | 14
(4.92)  | 16.0 | 16.25 | Staples CT               = 19 | 14 | 15 | 17
(13.67) | 16.0 | 16.50 | Cathedral Catholic CA    = 13 | 21 | 14 | 18
(18.00) | 18.0 | 17.00 | Southlake Carroll TX     = 11 | 18 | 18 | 21
(0.92)  | 19.5 | 19.75 | Fayetteville-Manlius NY  = 21 | 19 | 20 | 19
(6.92)  | 20.5 | 19.75 | Edina MN                 = 22 | 20 | 21 | 16
(25.00) | 22.0 | 19.50 | College Park TX          = 12 | 22 | 22 | 22

Notes: My projections are only off of the NXR races (except The Woodlands' missing runner), while Meylan's uses a synthesis of ratings but I believe weighs most heavily on NXR and State, while the others I'm not sure. Milesplit is actual rankings rather than an NXN-only projection (I don't think they post actual NXN projections?).

CBA, Davis, Liverpool, St. Xavier, Cathedral Catholic, Southlake Carroll and College Park seem to be pretty variable depending on which projection you look at.

CBA is the most severe and is because I have them rated significantly worse than others, it seems, while Milesplit is a bit more favorable than the rest.
College Park and St. Xavier are the next most extreme; CP because I have them rated significantly higher, and St. Xavier because of a combination between Milesplit has them much higher and I have them a bit lower.

Davis, Southlake Carroll and Liverpool are also notable differences: Davis is no one seems to agree on them except Milesplit and my projections, which have them higher than the rest. Southlake Carroll looks like it is due to my rating them higher... I guess I valued the NXN South race more than others (or they are penalizing them, as well as College Park, for their poor races at State - which is very understandable). Liverpool is a slightly less extreme version of Davis, where this time Milesplit has them rated lower than everyone else and DyeStat only slightly higher than Meylan and I.

A modest difference on our views of Cathedral Catholic, with DyeStat and I having them around #13/14 while Meylan (21) and Milesplit (18) are a little lower.

Seems to be very good agreement in general beyond those teams, although Dana Hills (two around 10-12 and two at 15/16), Mahomet-Seymour (two around 12/13, two around 16-18), and Edina (three between 20-22, but Milesplit at 16) are slightly different.


General consensus notes:

The projections all pretty much agree on who is included in the top tier of (6-8) teams, with the only questions being whether or not CBA or Wayzata belong with that group. We also pretty much agree that MW#2 (DGN) and NW#2 (Summit) are mid-pack teams. It does get a bit muddy beyond those two points of agreement, though.



Girls =

(Variability) | Median | Average | Team | Watchout | Meylan | DyeStat | Milesplit

(0.00)  |  1.0 |  1.00 | Fayetteville-Manlius NY  = 1 | 1 | 1 | 1
(0.00)  |  2.0 |  2.00 | Great Oak CA             = 2 | 2 | 2 | 2
(0.25)  |  3.0 |  3.25 | Davis CA                 = 4 | 3 | 3 | 3
(8.25)  |  4.5 |  5.75 | Carmel IN                = 10 | 4 | 5 | 4
(1.67)  |  6.5 |  6.50 | Edina MN                 = 6 | 8 | 7 | 5
(14.92) |  7.0 |  7.75 | Bozeman MT               = 8 | 6 | 4 | 13
(3.33)  |  8.0 |  8.00 | Willmar MN               = 7 | 10 | 9 | 6
(8.25)  |  8.5 |  7.25 | Southlake Carroll TX     = 3 | 9 | 8 | 9
(8.67)  |  9.0 |  9.00 | Minooka IL               = 11 | 7 | 6 | 12
(8.25)  | 10.5 |  9.25 | Keller TX                = 5 | 11 | 11 | 10
(20.92) | 12.0 | 11.25 | Desert Vista AZ          = 12 | 5 | 12 | 16
(3.33)  | 13.0 | 13.00 | Naperville North IL      = 15 | 12 | 14 | 11
(3.58)  | 13.5 | 12.75 | Shenendehowa NY          = 14 | 13 | 10 | 14
(5.58)  | 14.0 | 14.75 | Sunset OR                = 13 | 15 | 13 | 18
(28.67) | 14.5 | 14.00 | Blacksburg VA            = 20 | 14 | 15 | 7
(23.33) | 16.5 | 15.00 | Lake Braddock VA         = 19 | 16 | 17 | 8
(18.00) | 16.5 | 15.00 | Mountain Vista CO        = 9 | 18 | 18 | 15
(2.00)  | 16.5 | 17.00 | Palos Verdes CA          = 16 | 17 | 16 | 19
(1.33)  | 18.0 | 18.00 | Summit OR                = 17 | 19 | 19 | 17
(1.58)  | 20.0 | 19.75 | North Hunterdon NJ       = 18 | 21 | 20 | 20
(0.67)  | 21.0 | 21.00 | Broomfield CO            = 21 | 20 | 21 | 22
(0.25)  | 22.0 | 21.75 | Souhegan NH              = 22 | 22 | 22 | 21

Notes: My projections are only off of the NXR races, while Meylan's uses a synthesis of ratings but I believe weighs most heavily on NXR and State, while the others I'm not sure. Milesplit is actual rankings rather than an NXN-only projection (I don't think they post actual NXN projections?).

Blacksburg, Lake Braddock, Desert Vista, and to a lesser extent Mountain Vista and Bozeman are pretty variable. Minooka, Southlake Carroll, Keller, Carmel, and to an extent Sunset are somewhat variable but relatively stable. Lots of agreement beyond that.

Blacksburg is due to vast differences between Milesplit (#7) and myself (20), with both Meylan and DyeStat about halfway between (#14 and 15).

Lake Braddock is due to Milesplit (#8) significantly ahead of the rest of us: myself at #19, though Meylan (16) and DyeStat (17) not much different.

Desert Vista is mostly due to Meylan being notably higher on them (#5), and to be honest if I was looking at more than just their NXR race I would probably agree with him. However, as it is I have them at #12, which is similar to DyeStat (12) and Milesplit (16).

Mountain Vista looks to be down to me being higher on them (#9) than the rest (#15, 18 and 18).

Bozeman got a pretty wide variety, although if the others have a similar tier of teams as I do (Meylan pretty much does: for example, I have Bozeman at roughly 255 points and he has them at 246, so pretty slight difference on them but a bigger difference on the Heartland and especially South teams) then the only "notable" outlier is Milesplit at #13.

The other somewhat notable differences is mainly the two South teams (I have them finishing higher than the rest) and Minooka (Milesplit and I have them around #11/12, while Meylan/DyeStat have them at #6/7). Carmel is also a big difference, though that is just my ranking - I'm assuming the difference is due to whether or not we include Sarah Leinheiser (who has been dealing with an apparent foot injury). I didn't include her in the projections, and Meylan included her as their #5


General consensus notes:

The projections all pretty much agree on who is included in the top tier of (3-4) teams, with the only questions being whether or not Southlake Carroll belong with that group (FWIW, I am the outlier as I have them scoring in the 180s to being neck and neck with Davis). There also seems to be a general agreement on the rest of the field as well: even most of the highly variable teams mentioned above look to be roughly in the same tiers, with the only exceptions beyond the Southeast (milesplit is higher), Southwest (mixed bag) and South (I'm higher) teams. Very good agreement on the lower tier of teams. Much better consensus overall this year than in the boys race.

VERY ROUGH preliminary NXN outlook

Figured I might as well post a ROUGH outlook for NXN. I'm not including scores, because this is based on ROUGH estimates for most of the regional courses. While good enough to put them in their proper tiers, their placement within their tiers is very suspect. Also, I would like to include more than just their regional races (the below only used regional races except the Woodlands TX boys, where I added their missing #1 from his State Meet race). I will see about being more specific, and include rough scoring, if I have time later this week. EDIT: I'll just leave these as is... they aren't as well refined as my usual projections, and they aren't specific enough as to show exactly how close I think the teams are, but they give the general idea of roughly what group each team seems to belongs to (according to their races at NXR).


Boys:
1 American Fork UT
2 Bozeman MT
3 The Woodlands TX (assuming their #1 is back in their lineup)
4 Neuqua Valley IL
5 Brentwood TN
6 Great Oak CA
------------
7 Summit OR
8 Wayzata MN
9 Downers Grove North IL
10 Davis UT
11 Southlake Carroll TX
------------
12 College Park TX
13 Cathedral Catholic CA
14 Springville UT
15 Liverpool NY
16 Dana Hills CA
17 Christian Brothers Academy NJ
18 Mahomet-Seymour IL
------------
19 Staples CT
20 St. Xavier KY
------------
21 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
22 Edina MN


Notes: American Fork's trio is just too good. Going just by their regional race, it should actually be a close race (about 30-35 points separating #1 from #5), but if their #5 runs as well as they did at the Utah State meet, they should be a 20-25 point favorite over Bozeman. Great Oak is slightly closer to Summit than they are to Brentwood, but included them in the top tier because they were closer to the rest of that tier than most of the teams in the second tier. Edina and Fayetteville-Manlius are both teams that tend to run well at NXN, and normally that would mean I'd be giving them a bump within their own tier... but they are kind of sitting in a tier of their own, which makes that a bit more difficult. Would not be surprised if they both beat St. Xavier and possibly Staples based on that alone, though I think CBA and probably Mahomet-Seymour are just a little too far ahead to make up that ground in the national field. However, if they have a good race and CBA/MS don't run well, it is definitely still a possibility. The Woodlands has their best team yet, and it has been dominant throughout the year, however their NXR meet shows just how fragile a US Top-5 team can be if just a couple athletes are off (their #1 was missing, and their #4/5 finishers were a little off, but the rest of their usual Top 4 ran well and yet they still finished a bit behind mid-pack NXN teams).



Girls:
1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
2 Great Oak CA
------------
3 Southlake Carroll TX
4 Davis CA
5 Keller TX
6 Edina MN
7 Willmar MN
8 Bozeman MT
------------
9 Mountain Vista CO
10 Carmel IN
11 Minooka IL
------------
12 Desert Vista AZ
13 Sunset OR
14 Shenendehowa NY
15 Naperville North IL
16 Palos Verdes CA
------------
17 Summit OR
18 North Hunterdon NJ
19 Lake Braddock VA
20 Blacksburg VA
21 Broomfield CO
------------
22 Souhegan NH


Notes: Yes, once again, the usual suspects at the top. Fayetteville-Manlius has the edge here even before you consider how well they typically run at NXN, but Great Oak is close enough to make things very interesting. The battle for the other podium finish, if the top two teams run well, is also looking to be very close: Davis was second last year, Southlake Carroll has had a few teams do very well in the past, Keller won the Texas 6A State title over SLC, and Edina looks very much in contention with all of those teams. Willmar and Bozeman look to be slightly behind the rest of that tier, but are closer to Edina and Keller than they are the trio in the next group, and aren't so far behind that a good day for them could make up all that difference. The two most interesting teams to me that seem to be "mid pack" teams are Desert Vista and Sunset, both for different reasons. Desert Vista is a team that looked incredible during most of the season, but came up flat at their NXR meet. They ran well at NXN a few years ago, placing a very strong fifth in their lone appearance in 2014 (and, much like this year, was a team that ran well throughout the season, had a bit of an off race at NXR, but then they came through with a great race at nationals). Similarly, Sunset is a team that exceeded expectations last time they were at NXN, when they finished seventh but within shouting distance of fifth place last year. However, their journey as well as their strengths and weaknesses this year are vastly different than Desert Vista. Sunset, who started the season slower than the other nationally elite teams, has come on very strong to close out their season. They have a trio of runners that have gone 17:40 or faster, including an NXN Top-10 returner in Ember Stratton. Desert Vista, on the other hand, has a pack that has been within 40 seconds of eachother and starts about where Sunset's trio ends. In a dual meet, Sunset would win just on the strength of their front runners, but in an invitational meet Desert Vista begins to have a stronger advantage. Due to their front running prowess and a fast improving #4, Sunset has the potential to challenge for a Top-10 finish, although just as easily could finish just outside the top 15. Desert Vista is a team that, if all their athletes run well, could destroy any projections based on their NXR race and be a strong threat to finish with the #3-8 group.




Also, as a bonus, here are the top individual ratings from NXR that I am currently using. Again, these are very rough (outside of NW, and to a lesser extent MW and SO) so take them as GENERAL ratings.... should be within 1-2 points though, and obviously some of the individuals probably weren't pushed as significantly as others at their regional races (case in point, SE Champs Brodey Hastey and Kate Murphy). One thing to note: this year's individual field was MUCH stronger at their NXR races than previous years. In advance of NXN last year, I mentioned that there were 13 girls at 150+ and 16 boys at 194+ while this year there are 24 girls at 150+ and 41 at 194+ ... of course, I assumed that all individuals who qualified for NXN chose to accept the invite instead of opt for Footlocker, which may be more true than usual considering how many of the top athletes were choosing NXN this year, but there is always the possibility that someone turned down their invite to either run FLW or focus on Footlocker Nationals instead.

Also, as an added bonus, since there are plenty out there who don't know how good a rating XXX.XX is, I'll include the 3200m/3k equivalents to provide a greater perspective on the caliber of performance they had (according to my ratings). However, keep in mind, this might not always reflect what the athletes have/will run for 3200m: some are bound to be better at longer distances or are stronger on varying surfaces (e.g. they might be considered to be "better hill runners"), or visa versa.


Team runners are in bold.

Boys Top 35 Individuals - NXR Ratings only

1. 205.64 - Casey Clinger - American Fork UT - (SW #1) - 8:47.21 / 8:11.07
2. 203.87 - David Principe - Unattached RI - (NE #1) - 8:50.38 / 8:14.02
3. 203.57 - Finn Gessner - Unattached WI - (HL #1) - 8:50.92 / 8:14.52
4. 203.57 - Seth Hirsch - Unattached NE - (HL #2) - 8:50.92 / 8:14.52
5. 200.86 - McKay Johns - American Fork UT - (SW #2) - 8:55.77 / 8:19.04
6. 200.33 - James Mwaura - Unattached WA - (NW #1) - 8:56.72 / 8:19.93
7. 200.18 - Sam Worley - Unattached TX - (SO #1) - 8:56.99 / 8:20.18
8. 199.97 - Luis Grijalva - Unattached CA - (CA #1) - 8:57.37 / 8:20.53
9. 199.85 - Reed Brown - Southlake Carroll TX - (SO #2) - 8:57.58 / 8:20.73
10. 199.82 - Daniel Bernal - Unattached TX - (SO #3) - 8:57.63 / 8:20.78
11. 199.68 - Alex Maier - Unattached TX - (SO #4) - 8:57.89 / 8:21.01
12. 199.46 - Milo Greder - Unattached NE - (HL #3) - 8:58.28 / 8:21.38
13. 199.31 - Patrick Parker - American Fork UT - (SW #3) - 8:58.55 / 8:21.63
14. 199.22 - Daniel Viegra - Unattached TX - (SO #5) - 8:58.71 / 8:21.78
15. 198.62 - Seth Eliason - Unattached MN - (HL #4) - 8:59.78 / 8:22.78
16. 198.58 - Brodey Hasty - Brentwood TN - (SE #1) - 8:59.86 / 8:22.85
17. 198.58 - Alex Miley - Unattached MN - (HL #5) - 8:59.86 / 8:22.85
18. 198.53 - Chase Equall - Bozeman MT - (NW #2) - 8:59.94 / 8:22.93
19. 198.51 - Danny Kilrea - Unattached IL - (MW #1) - 8:59.98 / 8:22.96
20. 198.48 - Joe Benson - Unattached UT - (SW #4) - 9:00.03 / 8:23.01
21. 197.84 - Micahel Vernau - Unattached CA - (CA #2) - 9:01.18 / 8:24.08
22. 197.56 - Isaac Green - Unattached CO - (SW #5) - 9:01.68 / 8:24.55
23. 197.51 - Callum Bolger - Unattached CA - (CA #3) - 9:01.77 / 8:24.63
24. 197.32 - Dylan Jacobs - Unattached IL - (MW #2) - 9:02.11 / 8:24.95
25. 197.32 - Jack Aho - Unattached IL - (MW #3) - 9:02.11 / 8:24.95
26. 197.13 - Cooper Teare - Unattached CA - (CA #4) - 9:02.45 / 8:25.26
27. 196.26 - Connor O'Neill - Unattached TX - (SO #6) - 9:04.01 / 8:26.72
28. 196.14 - Jordan Lesansee - Unattached NM - (SW #6) - 9:04.23 / 8:26.92
29. 196.06 - Ty Brownlow - Liverpool NY - (NY #1) - 9:04.37 / 8:27.05
30. 195.78 - Tanner Norman - Unattached CO - (SW #7) - 9:04.87 / 8:27.52
31. 195.70 - Dustin Horter - Unattached OH - (MW #4) - 9:05.01 / 8:27.65
32. *195.69 - William Hunsdale - The Woodlands TX - (SO #7) - 9:05.03 / 8:27.67
33. 195.52 - Erik Gonzalez - Unattached CA - (CA #5) - 9:05.34 / 8:27.95
34. 195.42 - Ben Varghese - Unattached TN - (SE #2) - 9:05.51 / 8:28.12
35. 195.35 - Nathan Lawler - Unattached NY - (NY #2) - 9:05.64 / 8:28.23

*Hunsdale's mark is actually from the Texas State meet, as he did not run at NXN-South.



Girls Top 35 Individuals - NXR Ratings only

1. 164.96 - Brie Oakley - Unattached CO - (SW #1) - 10:00.07 / 9:18.93
2. 161.24 - Claudia Lane - Unattached CA - (CA #1) - 10:06.73 / 9:25.14
3. 159.79 - Molly Born - Unattached KS - (HL #1) - 10:09.33 / 9:27.56
4. 158.03 - Allie Schadler - Unattached AZ - (SW #2) - 10:12.48 / 9:30.49
5. 158.00 - Annie Hill - Unattached MT - (NW #1) - 10:12.54 / 9:30.54
6. 157.53 - Emily Venters - Unattached KS - (HL #2) - 10:13.38 / 9:31.33
7. 157.18 - Lauren Gregory - Unattached CO - (SW #3) - 10:14.00 / 9:31.91
8. 156.76 - Lexy Halladay - Unattached ID - (NW #2) - 10:14.76 / 9:32.61
9. 156.62 - Grace Ping - Unattached UT - (SW #4) - 10:15.01 / 9:32.85
10. 156.52 - Katherine Lee - Unattached NY - (NY #1) - 10:15.19 / 9:33.01
11. 156.04 - Anna Fenske - Unattached MN - (HL #3) - 10:16.05 / 9:33.81
12. 155.51 - Ember Stratton - Sunset OR - (NW #3) - 10:17.00 / 9:34.70
13. 153.87 - Anna Gibson - Unattached WY - (NW #4) - 10:19.93 / 9:37.43
14. 153.40 - Katelynne Hart - Unattached IL - (MW #1) - 10:20.77 / 9:38.22
15. 152.84 - London Culbreath - Unattached TX - (SO #1) - 10:21.78 / 9:39.15
16. 152.65 - Kelsey Chmiel - Unattached NY - (NY #2) - 10:22.12 / 9:39.47
17. 152.55 - India Johnson - Unattached OH - (MW #2) - 10:22.30 / 9:39.64
18. 152.01 - Anne Forsyth - Unattached MI - (MW #3) - 10:23.26 / 9:40.54
19. 152.00 - Claire Walters - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - (NY #3) - 10:23.28 / 9:40.55
20. 151.90 - Tiahna Vladic - Unattached MT - (NW #5) - 10:23.46 / 9:40.72
21. 151.80 - Katherine Murphy - Lake Braddock VA - (SE #1) - 10:23.64 / 9:40.89
22. 151.53 - Karly Ackley - Unattached ND - (HL #4) - 10:24.12 / 9:41.34
23. 151.47 - Anna Sophia Keller - Unattached IL - (MW #4) - 10:24.23 / 9:41.44
24. 150.04 - Ashton Endsley - Unattached TX - (SO #2) - 10:26.79 / 9:43.82
25. 149.63 - Quinn McConnell - Unattached CO - (SW #5) - 10:27.53 / 9:44.51
26. 149.16 - Jessica Lawson - Unattached NY - (NY #4) - 10:28.37 / 9:45.29
27. 148.68 - Aislinn Devlin - Unattached PA - (NE #1) - 10:29.23 / 9:46.09
28. 148.66 - Lauren Peterson - Unattached MN - (HL #5) - 10:29.26 / 9:46.13
29. 148.19 - Taylor Roe - Unattached WA - (NW #6) - 10:30.11 / 9:46.91
30. 148.06 - Annika Sleenhof - Unattached TN - (SE #2) - 10:30.34 / 9:47.13
31. 148.02 - Abbey Santoro - Keller TX - (SO #3) - 10:30.41 / 9:47.19
32. 147.83 - Elizabeth Reneau - Unattached TX - (SO #4) - 10:30.75 / 9:47.51
33. 147.55 - Elizabeth Chittenden - Unattached CA - (CA #2) - 10:31.25 / 9:47.98
34. 147.38 - Erika Adler - Unattached CA - (CA #3) - 10:31.56 / 9:48.26
35. 147.18 - Sara Leonard - Unattached CA - (CA #4) - 10:31.91 / 9:48.59

Quick Analysis: NXR Regions (complete)

Updated quick analysis of the NXN regional races.

Here is a ROUGH estimate of the groupings I would put each team in, to give an idea of the potential national rankings. This is ONLY considering what each team ran at their NXR Championship race, and my roughly estimated ratings (SW = 15:10, SO =15:10, NW = 15:15, HL = 14:50, MW = 14:45, CA = 14:50, SE = 14:50, NE/NY = 15:30) as well as the team scores vs. the top pack of teams in the field. Asterisk next to the regional #3/4 finishers (potential At-Large candidates).


Boys =

Tier 1.0 (4): American Fork UT, Bozeman MT, Neuqua Valley IL, Brentwood TN
Tier 1.5 (6): Great Oak CA, Summit OR, Wayzata MN, Davis UT, Southlake Carroll TX, Downers Grove North IL
Tier 2.0 (10): Cathedral Catholic CA, College Park TX, Dana Hills CA*, Claremont CA*, Springville UT*, Christian Brothers NJ, Timpanogos UT*, North Central WA*, Mahomet-Seymour IL*, The Woodlands TX*
Tier 2.5 (22): Loyola CA, Olympus UT, Lyons Township IL*, St. Xavier KY, Staples CT, El Paso Eastwood TX*, Roosevelt CA, Solon OH, Lake Zurich IL, Mountain Vista CO, Loudon Valley VA*, West Torrance CA, West Ranch CA, Dublin CA, Skyline ID*, Fayetteville-Manlius NY, Liverpool NY, Edina MN, Millard West NE*, Campolindo CA, Palmer Ridge CO, Lone Peak UT
Tier 3.0 (10): Bellarmine Prep CA, Monarch CO, Fort Wayne Carroll IN, Carmel IN, Council Rock North PA, Foothill CA, Mira Costa CA, Crater OR, Colts Neck NJ, New Town ND*


Girls =

Tier 0.5 (2): Fayetteville-Manlius NY, Great Oak CA
Tier 1.0 (5): Davis CA, Southlake Carroll TX, Keller TX, Edina MN, Willmar MN
Tier 1.5 (3): Bozeman MT, Mountain Vista CO, Carmel IN
Tier 2.0 (14): Naperville North IL, Minooka IL*, Palos Verdes CA*, Summit OR, Sunset OR*, Wayzata MN*, Desert Vista AZ, The Woodlands TX*, Shenendehowa NY, Claremont CA*, Buchanan CA, Broomfield CO*, American Fork UT*, Blacksburg VA
Tier 2.5 (12): Saugus CA, Lake Braddock VA, North Hunterdon NJ, Jackson Hole WY*, Mountain View ID, Yorkville IL*, Shoreham-Wading River NY*, Arcadia CA, Dana Hills CA, Cardinal Gibbons NC*, Battle Mountain CO, Canyon-Anaheim CA
Tier 3.0 (21): St. Francis (Sacramento) CA, Minnetonka MN*, Johnston IA, Marcus TX*, Jesuit OR, Davis UT, Prosper TX, La Costa Canyon CA, Esperanza CA, Monte Vista CA, Billings Senior MT, Washburn MN, North Rockland NY*, Aptos CA, Ventura CA, San Ramon Valley CA, San Marcos CA, Centerville OH, Saratoga Springs NY, Foothill Tech CA, Cathedral Catholic CA


Regional breakdown to date =

Boys teams (4/10/20/42/52):
CA = 0/1/4/10/13
SW = 1/2/5/8/9
MW = 1/2/4/6/8
NW = 1/2/3/4/5
SO = 0/1/4/4/4
HL = 0/1/1/3/4
SE = 1/1/1/3/3
NE = 0/0/1/2/4
NY = 0/0/0/2/2


Girls teams (2/7/10/24/36/57):
CA = 1/2/2/5/9/19
NW = 0/0/1/3/5/7
SW = 0/0/1/4/5/6
NY = 1/1/1/2/3/5
SO = 0/2/2/3/3/5
HL = 0/2/2/3/3/5
MW = 0/0/1/3/4/4
SE = 0/0/0/1/3/3
NE = 0/0/0/0/1/1


UPDATE: At-Large teams have been announced, so we have our boys and girls fields set.

Boys At-Large Teams Invited: Dana Hills CA, Mahomet-Seymour IL, Springville UT, The Woodlands TX

Assessment: They were all #3 regional teams, and all among the "Tier 2.0" (#11-20) teams. Other T2 teams that might have just missed out: Claremont CA, North Central WA, Timpanogos UT.


Girls At-Large Teams Invited: Broomfield CO, Minooka IL, Palos Verdes CA, Sunset OR

Assessment: Again, all were #3 regional teams, and all among the "Tier 2.0" (#11-24) teams. Other T2 teams that might have just missed out: American Fork UT, Claremont CA, The Woodlands TX, Wayzata MN



Note: At some point, I might try to go back and get more specific ratings on some of these regions to yield a more precise ranking, but probably not until after NXN. I'm confident the tiers should essentially stay the same, with the possibility of some teams on the edges of their tiers moving slightly up/down with a more thorough review.