Friday, August 5, 2016

Alaska State XC guesstimate

No more State Qualifier ratings, as Montana and Wyoming have all inclusive state meets. Wyoming does have actual regional races prior to the state meet, but with so few teams I didn't think it was really worth a look into before moving on to different topics. However, here is my GUESS at Alaska's top returners. Hard to gauge this since not many Alaskans ran in the lower 48 last year, so this is based off of what the few runners who were at George Fox OR Invitational (200.0 = 14:42.18) ran. Those 14 runners pointed towards a 14:51.35 rating for the Alaskan state meet, but keep in mind this is VERY questionable. As an added bonus, I listed any Alaska Top-10 track marks to better gauge their level.


Top 10 Results (non-seniors in bold):

Boys =


  1. 181.0 - Ty Jordan, 12 - Chugiak - 15:47.7 - 4A Boys #1 (51.17/1:55.16/4:15.78)
  2. 179.7 - Gus Schumacher, 10 - Service - 15:51.8 - 4A Boys #2
  3. 173.8 - Finn Walker, 11 - West Anchorage - 16:09.3 - 4A Boys #3 (4:27.60/9:44.13)
  4. 173.7 - Hunter Kratz, 11 - Seward - 16:09.5 - 3A Boys #2 (2:00.11/4:30.15/9:48.72)
  5. 169.9 - Jacob Moos, 10 - Galena - 16:20.7 - 3A Boys #3 (4:26.57/9:40.40)
  6. 169.0 - Michael Parnell, 12 - Kodiak - 16:23.4 - 4A Boys #4 (1:58.03/4:21.29/9:45.28)
  7. 168.5 - Keith Osowski, 11 - Kodiak - 16:25.0 - 4A Boys #5 (4:30.85/9:36.99)
  8. 167.4 - Derek Steele, 12 - South Anchorage - 16:28.3 - 4A Boys #6 (1:58.15/4:21.25/9:40.29)
  9. 165.8 - Quincy Fuller, 12 - Wasilla - 16:33.1 - 4A Boys #7
  10. 165.4 - Aaron Swedberg, 12 - Soldotna - 16:34.1 - 4A Boys #8 (1:58.70)


Girls =


  1. 117.0 - Molly Gellert, 10 - West Anchorage - 18:58 - 4A Girls #1
  2. 115.0 - Briahna Gerlach, 11 - Glennallen - 19:04 - 3A Girls #1 (2:22.83/5:00.65/11:06.61)
  3. 115.0 - Riana Boonstra, 10 - Kenai Central - 19:04 - 4A Girls #2
  4. 111.3 - Morgan Lash, 12 - South Anchorage - 19:15 - 4A Girls #3 (2:18.02/5:03.60/10:56.64)
  5. 106.2 - Naomi Welling, 12 - Thunder Mountain - 19:30 - 4A Girls #4 (2:17.95, 38-05.75 TJ, 5-01 HJ, 17-00 LJ, 15.11 100mH, Pentathlon: 3821)
  6. 104.5 - Jaycie Calvert, 9 - Kenai Central - 19:35 - 4A Girls #5
  7. 103.9 - Ithaca Bergholtz, 10 - Kenai Central - 19:37 - 4A Girls #6 (11:48.02)
  8. 103.5 - Elizabeth Balsan, 12 - Anchorage Christian - 19:38 - 3A Girls #2 (2:19.68/5:01.49/11:10.67)
  9. 102.8 - Megan Pitzman, 11 - Homer - 19:40 - 3A Girls #3
  10. 100.5 - Jill Bowker, 10 - Colony - 19:47 - 4A Girls #7

I would do the same for Hawai'i, though I don't know what meet I would use. Iolani seems like the best bet, but that is mid-season and I try to keep comparison meets within 2-3 weeks as much as possible.

Top Returning ID State XC Qualifiers

Now that I've looked at the Washington and Oregon State qualifying meets, it is time I checked out the Idaho meets. Still restricted myself to the larger classes, so here is the list of all the estimates for the Idaho 4A/5A state qualifying meets:

1A-5A District 1/2 @ Farragut State Park: 15:02.84
5A District 3 @ Eagle Island State Park: 14:48.11
5A District 4-6 @ Freeman Park: 15:34.49
4A District 3 @ Eagle Island State Park: 15:07.65
4A District 4 @ Lake Walcott: 15:06.63
4A District 5-6 @ Ross Park: 15:30.84

(note: obviously, there are multiple layouts that can be used on most courses. In the past, the 5A-3 meet used a layout that avoided the hill on the course, which obviously makes the course run notably faster than it does when hosting NXR, Bob Firman or the Idaho State course. I am unsure if the 4A district has done that in the past as well, though it would be believable that the 4A schools opted to use the standard course instead this year based on what the athletes went on to run at state - it doesn't make a difference as far as my ratings are concerned, but might be a confusing point for those unaware of that situation)

Here are the Top 10 returning individuals from those state qualifying meets:


Boys =


  1. 178.6 - Taylor Phillips, 11 - Rocky Mountain - 15:51.3 - 5A-3 #4
  2. 178.0 - Charles Paul, 11 - Mountain View - 15:53.2 - 5A-3 #7
  3. 176.9 - Austin Byrer, 11 - Lewiston - 16:12.3 - 5A Region 1 #1
  4. 175.9 - Caleb Armstrong, 9 - Pocatello - 16:45.7 - 4A-5 #1
  5. 175.3 - Nicholas Russell, 9 - Bishop Kelly - 16:22.5 - 4A-3 #1
  6. 174.9 - Siyad Matan, 10 - Borah - 16:02.3 - 5A-3 #8
  7. 174.8 - Evan Thieme, 11 - Rocky Mountain - 16:02.6 - 5A-3 #9
  8. 174.8 - Josh Corgatelli, 11 - Moscow - 16:18.8 - 4A Region 1 #1
  9. 174.1 - Malachi Armstrong, 11 - Pocatello - 16:51.2 - 4A-5 #2
  10. 171.4 - Caden Armstrong, 11 - Pocatello - 16:59.7 - 4A-5 #3



Girls =


  1. 140.3 - Katherine Ruck, 11 - Moscow - 18:02.6 - 4A Region 1 #1
  2. 134.4 - Eve Jensen, 9 - Boise - 18:02.2 - 5A-3 #1
  3. 130.9 - Rachel Morrin, 10 - Madison - 19:09.8 - 5A-4 #1
  4. 127.4 - Michelle Pratt, 11 - Blackfoot - 19:16.0 - 4A-5 #1
  5. 127.3 - McKenna Emerson, 10 - Eagle - 18:23.4 - 5A-3 #2
  6. 127.1 - Dania Holmberg, 11 - Eagle - 18:24.0 - 5A-3 #3
  7. 125.8 - Billie Hatch, 11 - Preston - 19:21.0 - 4A-5 #2
  8. 120.0 - Brittney Hansen, 9 - Meridian - 18:44.8 - 5A-3 #5
  9. 119.1 - Makenna Schuler, 10 - Mountain View - 18:47.6 - 5A-3 #6
  10. 117.9 - Breanna Stauter, 9 - Mountain View - 18:51.2 - 5A-3 #7


Thursday, August 4, 2016

Top Returning OR State XC Qualifiers

Yesterday, I looked at the Washington State qualifying meets. Today, I checked out the Oregon meets. Still restricted myself to the larger classes, so here is the list of all the estimates for the Oregon 4A-6A state qualifying meets:

6A-1 (Portland Interscholastic League) @ Fernhill Park: 14:38.26
6A-2 (Metro League) @ Tualatin Hills Recreation Center: 14:33.02
6A-3 (Mount Hood Conference) @ Centennial HS: 14:35.25
6A-4 (Three Rivers League) @ Clackamas CC: 14:43.39
6A-5 (Greater Valley Conference) @ Bush Park: 14:33.27
6A-6 (Southwestern Conference) @ Grants Pass All-Sports Park: 14:46.68
5A-1 (Northwest Oregon Conference) @ Meriwether Golf Club: 14:21.08
5A-2 (Mid-Willamete Conference) @ Crystal Lake Sports Park: 14:34.14
5A-3 (Midwestern League) @ Jackson County Fairgrounds: 14:35.25
5A-4 (Intermountain Conference) @ Drake Park: 14:51.69
5A-5 (Columbia River Conference) @ Sorosis Park: 15:06.69
4A-1 (Cowapa League) @ Camp Rilea: 15:15.50
4A-2 (Tri-Valley Conference) @ McIver Park: 14:40.30
4A-3 (Far West League) @ Tugman State Park: 14:39.37
4A-4 (Oregon West Conference) @ Willamette Mission State Park: 14:18.67
4A-5 (Sky-Em League) @ Lane CC: 15:07.08
4A-6 (Skyline Conference) @ Jackson County Fairgrounds: 14:35.25
4A-7 (Greater Oregon League) @ Baker City Golf Course: 15:28.23


Here are the Top 15 returning individuals from those state qualifying meets:

Boys =


  1. 184.8 - Ahmed Muhumed, 11 - West Salem - 15:17.6 - 6A-5 #1
  2. 182.7 - Jett Ballantyne, 10 - Summit - 15:43.2 - 5A-4 #3
  3. 179.8 - Joshua Schumacher, 10 - Jesuit - 15:31.9 - 6A-2 #1
  4. 178.6 - Derek Tripp, 10 - Crater - 15:37.7 - 5A-3 #2
  5. 178.6 - Michael McCausland, 11 - Central Catholic - 15:37.8 - 6A-3 #1
  6. 178.1 - Alex Slenning, 10 - Wilson - 15:42.5 - 6A-1 #1
  7. 176.8 - Scott Kinkade, 11 - Summit - 16:00.7 - 5A-4 #4
  8. 176.5 - Thomas Schoderbek, 11 - Summit - 16:01.6 - 5A-4 #5
  9. 176.2 - Zane Fodge, 9 - McMinnville - 15:42.6 - 6A-5 #3
  10. 176.0 - Albert Hesse, 10 - Ridgeview - 16:03.0 - 5A-4 #6
  11. 174.5 - Andy Muha, 11 - Sunset - 15:47.1 - 6A-2 #3
  12. 174.0 - Caleb Seely, 11 - Wilson - 15:54.3 - 6A-1 #2
  13. 173.9 - Jerik Embleton, 10 - Marist - 15:51.3 - 5A-3 #3
  14. 172.4 - Henry Mong, 11 - Franklin - 15:59.1 - 6A-1 #4
  15. 171.7 - Dominic Arce, 11 - Lincoln - 16:01.1 - 6A-1 #7


Girls =


  1. 137.3 - Ember Stratton, 9 - Sunset - 17:35.6 - 6A-2 #1
  2. 136.2 - Olivia Brooks, 11 - Summit - 18:01.2 - 5A-4 #1
  3. 134.1 - Elizabeth Rinck, 9 - Jesuit - 17:44.8 - 6A-2 #2
  4. 131.3 - Anna Chau, 9 - South Salem - 17:53.2 - 6A-5 #1
  5. 129.1 - Hannah Tobiason, 10 - Summit - 18:22.3 - 5A-4 #2
  6. 127.6 - Ginger Murnieks, 9 - Sprague - 18:03.9 - 6A-5 #2
  7. 126.8 - Melissa Berry, 10 - Sheldon - 18:22.9 - 6A-6 #1
  8. 125.6 - Taylor Vandenborn, 10 - Summit - 18:32.8 - 5A-4 #3
  9. 123.3 - Hallie DeVore, 9 - Jesuit - 18:16.1 - 6A-2 #5
  10. 121.4 - Emma Stevenson, 11 - Summit - 18:45.3 - 5A-4 #4
  11. 121.0 - Kelsey Swenson, 9 - Mountain View - 18:46.6 - 5A-4 #5
  12. 119.3 - Celie Mans, 11 - Siuslaw - 18:36 - 4A-3 #1
  13. 117.6 - Kate Intile, 11 - Tualatin - 18:46.0 - 6A-4 #1
  14. 114.7 - Makenna Schumacher, 9 - Jesuit - 18:41.2 - 6A-2 #8
  15. 112.2 - Caramia Mestler, 10 - Sheldon - 19:06.2 - 6A-6 #3

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Top Returning WA State XC Qualifiers

Today's topic: A review of the ratings and returners from the biggest Washington State XC qualifying meets.

This was a bit tricky last year, due to the deplorable/changing weather in Western Washington on district/regional weekend. One meet in particular, which unfortunately happens to also be the biggest, was especially effected with changing conditions throughout the meet. As such, I was forced to rate several of those races individually rather than as a group (reducing my confidence in the how exacting these estimates can be). All of the other Westside meets were slowed by the conditions to varying degrees, but remained more or less consistent throughout the meet.

Enough with the history lesson, though, let's take a look at the ratings and returners!

3A/4A Southwest Regional & 2A District 2/3 & 1A District 3 ratings @ American Lake Golf Course:
1A-2A Girls & 1A Boys = 15:27.56, 2A-3A Boys & 3A-4A Girls = 15:31.05, 4A Boys =  16:04.28

3A District 2 & 4A Northwest Regional @ Lake Sammamish: 15:23.02

3A/4A Eastern Regional @ Wandermere Golf Course: 15:09.48

1A-3A District 1 ratings @ South Whidbey HS: 15:14.38

4A District 6 ratings @ Franklin Park: 14:49.58

1A/2A District 4 @ Lewis River Golf Course: Boys = 14:41.61, Girls = 14:50.90

2A Eastern Regional @ Ellensburg Rotary Park: Boys = 15:03.06, Girls = 14:53.98


Here are the Top 20 returning individuals from those state qualifying meets:

Boys =


  1. 186.8 - Tibebu Proctor, 11 - Northwest - 15:54.5 - 1A District 1 #1
  2. 184.8 - James Mwaura, 10 - Lincoln - 16:18.2 - 3A Southwest Regional #1
  3. 184.7 - Zak Kindl, 11 - Lewis and Clark - 15:56 - 4A Eastern Regional #1
  4. 184.3 - Cullen McEachern, 11 - Kamiak - 16:11.2 - 4A Northwest Regional #2
  5. 183.9 - Nate Pendleton, 10 - Eastlake - 16:12.7 - 4A Northwest Regional #3
  6. 182.7 - Hayden Dressel, 11 - Mt Spokane - 16:02 - 3A Eastern Regional #3
  7. 179.8 - Chanse Gilbert, 11 - Skyview - 17:09.3 - 4A Southwest Regional #1
  8. 179.8 - James Konugres, 11 - Ballard - 16:25.3 - 3A District 2 #3
  9. 179.6 - Matthew Watkins, 11 - Henry Jackson - 16:25.9 - 4A Northwest Regional #5
  10. 177.5 - Yacine Guermali, 11 - Camas - 17:16.7 - 4A Southwest Regional #7
  11. 177.4 - Amir Ado, 11 - Joel Ferris - 16:18 - 4A Eastern Regional #6
  12. 177.4 - Riley Moore, 9 - Richland - 16:18 - 4A Eastern Regional #5
  13. 176.9 - Ronan Price, 11 - Eisenhower - 15:57.9 - 4A District 6 #2
  14. 176.7 - Joe Waskom, 9 - Mt Si - 16:34.6 - 4A Northwest Regional #7
  15. 176.4 - Gabe Romney, 10 - Central Valley - 16:21 - 4A Eastern Regional #7
  16. 175.8 - Dawson Besst, 10 - Tahoma - 17:22.2 - 4A Southwest Regional #9
  17. 175.7 - Jacob Christner, 11 - North Central - 16:23 - 3A Eastern Regional #6
  18. 175.7 - Noah Wallace, 11 - Lake Stevens - 16:37.7 - 4A Northwest Regional #8
  19. 175.4 - Brandon Simmons, 10 - Bothell - 16:38.7 - 4A Northwest Regional #10
  20. 175.3 - Luke Houser, 9 - Woodinville - 16:38.9 - 4A Northwest Regional #11



Girls =


  1. 139.7 - Taylor Roe, 9 - Kamiak - 18:28.5 - 4A Northwest Regional #1 * Transferred to Lake Stevens
  2. 133.7 - Emma Jenkins, 10 - Camas - 18:56.7 - 4A Southwest Regional #1
  3. 133.1 - Jordan Oakes, 11 - Holy Names Academy - 18:49.0 - 3A District 2 #1
  4. 132.6 - Pia Richards, 11 - Eastlake - 18:50.3 - 4A Northwest Regional #2
  5. 132.5 - Sami Corman, 10 - Issaquah - 18:50.8 - 4A Northwest Regional #3
  6. 130.4 - Savanna Craig, 11 - Mountain View - 19:07.0 - 4A Southwest Regional #2
  7. 129.8 - Hannah Waskom, 11 - Mt Si - 18:59.0 - 4A Northwest Regional #4
  8. 128.3 - Sophia Cantine, 11 - Lakeside (Seattle) - 19:03.7 - 3A District 2 #4
  9. 126.5 - Rachel Blair, 9 - Camas - 19:19.3 - 4A Southwest Regional #3
  10. 124.8 - Kenna Clawson, 10 - Issaquah - 19:14.2 - 4A Northwest Regional #6
  11. 124.3 - Rachel Kastama, 11 - Puyallup - 19:26.1 - 4A Southwest Regional #4
  12. 122.6 - Abby Smith, 10 - Lewis and Clark - 19:04 - 4A Eastern Regional #1
  13. 121.6 - Rebecca Ledsham, 11 - Inglemoor - 19:24.4 - 4A Northwest Regional #8
  14. 121.2 - Abbie Steinhauer, 11 - Mariner - 19:25.4 - 4A Northwest Regional #9
  15. 120.9 - Erin Ripple, 11 - Holy Names Academy - 19:26.4 - 3A District 2 #5
  16. 120.2 - Yukino Parle, 10 - Edmonds-Woodway - 19:17.5 - 3A District 1 #1
  17. 119.7 - Katie Thronson, 10 - Lewis and Clark - 19:13 - 4A Eastern Regional #3
  18. 118.1 - Emily Wilson, 10 - Camas - 19:45.1 - 4A Southwest Regional #5
  19. 118.0 - Camila David-Smith, 11 - Interlake - 19:35.4 - 3A District 2 #6
  20. 116.4 - Kearan Nelson, 11 - Central Valley - 19:23 - 4A Eastern Regional #4



Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Top Returners from State XC

In yesterday's post, I mentioned how I have re-assessed the state meet ratings from last year. Now, let's take a look at who are the top returners based on those ratings!

Boys Top 10:

  1. 186.4 - James Konugres, 11 - Ballard WA - 15:25.00 - WA 3A #4
  2. 186.3 - Ahmed Muhumed, 11 - West Salem OR - 15:38.00 - OR 6A #1
  3. 185.2 - Zak Kindl, 11 - Lewis and Clark WA - 15:28.80 - WA 4A #4
  4. 185.0 - Andy Monroe, 10 - Crater OR - 15:42.00 - OR 5A #3
  5. 184.5 - Riley Collins, 11 - Bozeman MT - 15:03.76 - MT 2A #3
  6. 184.0 - Tibebu Proctor, 11 - Northwest WA - 15:32.10 - WA 1A #1
  7. 184.0 - Hayden Dressel, 11 - Mt Spokane WA - 15:32.30 - WA 3A #7
  8. 182.1 - Shane Henderson, 10 - Star Valley WY - 15:59.71 - WY 3A #2
  9. 182.0 - James Mwaura, 10 - Lincoln WA - 15:38.00 - WA 3A #8
  10. 181.8 - Caleb Armstrong, 9 - Pocatello ID - 16:05.70 - ID 4A #1

Girls Top 10:


  1. 154.1 - Annie Hill, 10 - Glacier MT - 16:30.71 - MT 2A #1
  2. 144.9 - Ember Stratton, 9 - Sunset OR - 17:42.00 - OR 6A #2
  3. 143.5 - Olivia Brooks, 11 - Summit OR - 17:46.00 - OR 5A #1
  4. 141.0 - Tiahna Vladic, 9 - Billings Senior MT - 17:08.34 - MT 2A #3
  5. 136.1 - Jordan Oakes, 11 - Holy Names Academy WA - 17:53.50 - WA 3A #1
  6. 135.3 - Katherine Ruck, 11 - Moscow ID - 18:26.80 - ID 4A #1
  7. 135.2 - Taylor Roe, 9 - Kamiak WA - 17:56.10 - WA 4A #1 * transferred to Lake Stevens WA
  8. 135.2 - Rachel Morrin, 10 - Madison ID - 18:27.20 - ID 5A #1
  9. 134.8 - Bryn Morley, 10 - Bigfork MT - 17:26.15 - MT B #1
  10. 134.7 - Piper Meuwissen, 11 - Bozeman MT - 17:26.26 - MT 2A #4
And NXR/NXN/FLW/FLN results that meet or exceed those performances:

Boys =

196.2 - Tibebu Proctor, 11 - Northwest WA - 15:41.3 - FLW Championship #5
194.6 - Andy Monroe, 10 - Crater OR - 15:32.2 - NXR Championship #3
193.1 - Ahmed Muhumed, 11 - West Salem OR - 15:36.8 - NXR Championship #4
189.5 - Tibebu Proctor, 11 - Northwest WA - 15:50.0 - FLN Championship #28
187.4 - Ahmed Muhumed, 11 - West Salem OR - 15:44.3 - NXN Nationals #40
187.1 - Riley Collins, 11 - Bozeman MT - 15:45.3 - NXN Nationals #43
186.6 - Riley Collins, 11 - Bozeman MT - 15:56.5 - NXR Championship #12
185.1 - Zak Kindl, 11 - Lewis and Clark WA - 16:01.1 - NXR Open1 Race #1
184.9 - James Mwaura, 10 - Lincoln WA - 16:16.4 - FLW Championship #23
184.7 - Andy Monroe, 10 - Crater OR - 15:52.6 - NXN Nationals #54
184.7 - Chase Equall, 11 - Bozeman MT - 16:02.5 - NXR Championship #15
182.8 - Riley Moore, 9 - Richland WA - 16:08.3 - NXR Open1 Race #2
182.5 - Amir Ado, 11 - Joel Ferris WA - 16:09.2 - NXR Championship #20

Girls =

155.6 - Annie Hill, 10 - Glacier MT - 17:31.1 - NXR Championship #1
151.3 - Ember Stratton, 9 - Sunset OR - 17:33.4 - NXN Nationals #20
149.7 - Tiahna Vladic, 9 - Billings Senior MT - 17:38.2 - NXN Nationals #23
148.3 - Tiahna Vladic, 9 - Billings Senior MT - 17:53.6 - NXR Championship #4
147.8 - Lexy Halladay, 8 - Mountain View ID - 17:54.9 - NXR Community Race #10
147.4 - Annie Hill, 10 - Glacier MT - 18:12.6 - FLW Championship #1
146.7 - Kristen Garcia, 10 - Unattached WA - 17:58.3 - NXR Championship #5
146.0 - Ember Stratton, 9 - Sunset OR - 18:00.6 - NXR Championship #6
144.4 - Kristen Garcia, 10 - Unattached WA - 18:21.8 - FLW Championship #5
143.1 - Olivia Brooks, 11 - Summit OR - 18:09.2 - NXR Championship #7
143.0 - Jordan Oakes, 11 - Holy Names Academy WA - 18:12.3 - FLN Championship #20
142.2 - Olivia Brooks, 11 - Summit OR - 18:01.0 - NXN Nationals #38
142.1 - Jordan Oakes, 11 - Holy Names Academy WA - 18:29.1 - FLW Championship #10
141.4 - Hannah Tobiason, 10 - Summit OR - 18:14.6 - NXR Championship #8
140.9 - Annie Hill, 10 - Glacier MT - 18:18.9 - FLN Championship #22
137.8 - Hannah Tobiason, 10 - Summit OR - 18:14.3 - NXN Nationals #52
137.3 - Kristen Garcia, 10 - Unattached WA - 18:29.9 - FLN Championship #32
137.2 - Kenenni Wiegand, 11 - Bozeman MT - 18:27.2 - NXR Championship #9
136.5 - Piper Meuwissen, 11 - Bozeman MT - 18:18.2 - NXN Nationals #55
135.5 - Taylor Vandenborn, 10 - Summit OR - 18:32.4 - NXR Championship #10
135.2 - Kenenni Wiegand, 11 - Bozeman MT - 18:22.1 - NXN Nationals #65
134.9 - Piper Meuwissen, 11 - Bozeman MT - 18:34.3 - NXR Championship #11


Note:

FYI, for comparison's sake, the 3k/3200m (sea level) track equivalents for the #10 performances would be 8:44.77/9:23.39 and 10:02.34/10:46.67 ... so there are multiple returning athletes who ran even faster this spring. In other words, this isn't necessarily representative of a Pre-Season Rankings list, it is only a look at which returners had the best State XC races last year.

To that end... here are the 3k/3200m marks from returners this spring (adjusted for altitude when applicable) that met or exceeded those State XC performances

Boys:

197.8 - Joshua Schumacher, 10 - Jesuit OR - 8:58.21 - 2 Mile @ Brooks PR Invitational
193.2 - Ahmed Muhumed, 11 - West Salem OR - 8:25.87 - 3k @ Oregon State Meet
193.0 - James Mwaura, 10 - Lincoln WA - 9:03.50 - 3200m @ Shoreline Invitational
192.9 - Alex Slenning, 10 - Wilson OR - 8:26.41 - 3k @ Oregon State Meet
192.1 - Tibebu Proctor, 11 - Northwest WA - 9:05.21 - 3200m @ Shoreline Invitational
191.2 - Chase Equall, 11 - Bozeman MT - 9:13.40* - 3200m @ Montana State Meet
188.3 - Matthew Watkins, 11 - Henry Jackson WA - 9:11.77 - 3200m @ WA Northwest Regional
186.7 - Joe Waskom, 9 - Mt Si WA - 9:14.76 - 3200m @ WA Northwest Regional
184.3 - Yacine Guermali, 11 - Camas WA - 9:18.87 - 3200m @ Washington State Meet
183.8 - Spencer Tsai, 11 - South Eugene OR - 8:41.36 - 3k @ Jesuit Twilight Relays
183.4 - Shane Henderson, 10 - Star Valley WY - 9:33.12* - 3200m @ BYU Invitational
182.3 - Lance Slichko, 11 - Emerald Ridge WA - 9:22.43 - 3200m @ Washington State Meet
182.1 - Adam Klein, 10 - Tualatin OR - 8:44.21 - 3k @ Jesuit Twilight Relays
181.9 - John Kavulich, 10 - Scappoose OR - 8:44.60 - 3k @ Jesuit Twilight Relays


Girls:

153.1 - Annie Hill, 10 - Glacier MT - 10:14.14 - 3200m @ Arcadia Invitational
149.0 - Taylor Roe, 9 - Lake Stevens WA - 10:21.51 - 3200m @ Washington State Meet
141.4 - Eve Jensen, 9 - Boise ID - 10:40.45* - 3200m @ Idaho State Meet
140.6 - Ember Stratton, 9 - Sunset OR - 9:52.60 - 3k @ Oregon State Meet
139.3 - Makenna Schumacher, 9 - Jesuit OR - 9:54.88 - 3k @ Metro League Championships
138.7 - Olivia Johnson, 11 - Barlow OR - 9:55.77 - 3k @ Oregon State Meet
138.5 - Tiahna Vladic, 9 - Billings Senior MT - 10:47.71* - 3200m @ Montana State Meet
138.3 - Ella Degrandpre, 9 - Hellgate MT - 10:48.12* - 3200m @ Montana State Meet
137.5 - Piper Meuwissen, 11 - Bozeman MT - 10:49.58* - 3200m @ Montana State Meet
135.7 - Erin Mullins, 11 - Cascade (Leavenworth) WA - 10:44.99 - 3200m @ Bellevue Invitational
135.3 - Rachel Kastama, 11 - Puyallup WA - 10:45.63 - 3200m @ Washington State Meet

* denotes that the mark was at altitude, with the ratings adjusted accordingly

Monday, August 1, 2016

Back at it? Not really, but here's an update

Hello, World! Been a while since I posted here, apparently even neglecting to post my NXN Nationals ratings. Sorry about that part.

I don't plan on posting that much this year - at the moment, I plan on posting even less than last year, which wasn't all that much. However, I might be posting a little bit with regards to Northwest stuff as I find the time. My main purpose is probably to help identify teams that SHOULD (in my opinion) at least strongly consider going to NXN Northwest at the end of the year. I know there are always going to be cases out there of teams not thinking they are good enough (even if they win their state meet in dominant fashion, as was the case with an NXN Nationals qualifier a few years ago!), so I want to start building awareness of just how teams MIGHT compare.

To that end, here's a long-overdue update...

I went back over the post-season results from last year to re-assess my ratings. Here are the updates (reminder: the times posted represent the 200.0 mark), along with a comparison to see where I was off (hint: Montana, being so isolated, was a bit off... and Oregon was a bit overrated as well). Alaska and Hawaii, as they didn't have hardly any athletes at NXR, isn't included in the following.

I also am including statistical references for any of you who might be more mathematically inclined.

Notes:
StDev = Non-outlier Standard Deviation (s) divided by the median estimate, to show the range (consistency) of the non-outliers
Athletes = The # of non-outlier athletes / # of athletes that competed at both State and NXR
State Athletes = # of athletes at each state meet (regardless of if they attended NXR or not)
% at NXR = The participation % of State qualifying athletes that competed at NXR

My apologies, in advance, for poor formatting.

STATE | New | Prior | % Difference | St.Dev | Athletes | State | % at NXR

ID | 15:10.41 | 15:11 | -0.06% | 1.31% | 129 / 194 | 803 | 24.16%
MT | 14:19.33 | 14:06 | +1.55% | 1.18% |   53 / 83 | 1044 | 7.95%
OR | 14:57.14 | 15:06 | -0.99% | 0.99% | 116 / 195 | 897 | 21.74%
WA | 14:45.00 | 14:49 | -0.45% | 1.17% | 128 / 203 | 1349 | 15.05%
WY | 15:05.63 |  N/A  |   N/A   | 0.66% |   37 / 68 | 445 | 15.28%

Also, for reference sake, my ratings for the national series meets:
NXR and NXN ended up at 200.0 = 15:15.66 and 15:06.28.
FLW and FLN ended up at 200.0 = 15:29.63 and 15:17.94

Anyways, that's all for today. Maybe some more to follow in the next week or so.


Addendum: BTW, here is a look at the % of varsity athletes that qualify for the state meet on a state-by-state basis (in the NW):

Boys =

Alaska: 26.70% (107 schools, 200 runners at the State Meet)
Hawai'i: 28.87% (97 schools, 196 runners at the State Meet)
Idaho: 39.22% (157 schools, 431 runners at the State Meet)
Montana: 44.77% (179 schools, 561 runners at the State Meet)
Oregon: 22.74% (289 schools, 460 runners at the State Meet)
Washington: 26.23% (390 schools, 716 runners at the State Meet)
Wyoming: 47.83% (69 schools, 231 runners at the State Meet)

Girls =

Alaska: 26.44% (107 schools, 198 runners)
Hawai'i: 29.31% (97 schools, 199 runners)
Idaho: 33.85% (157 schools, 372 runners)
Montana: 38.55% (179 schools, 483 runners)
Oregon: 21.60% (289 schools, 437 runners)
Washington: 23.19% (390 schools, 633 runners)
Wyoming: 44.31% (69 schools, 214 runners)

Notes:

Montana and Wyoming both have ALL-INCLUSIVE state meets, meaning EVERY school sends a team (no need to qualify). At least, that is the case in the larger divisions, but I believe that also holds true for smaller schools.

Washington has the same qualifying process for both genders and all classes with two exceptions: the B divisions are combined and also only has half the amount of girls qualify (small schools, fewer full teams). It works out to 25% of teams for 1A-4A and 12% for B boys compared to 6% for B girls. For individuals, you can qualify for state as long as you finish among the top X individuals, where X = 5 times the amount of team allocations (so the top ~18% except for Class B, which is 8.5% for guys and 4.5% for girls).

Idaho has the same qualifying procedure for both genders and all classes with only one exceptions (to my knowledge): 11 teams on both sides at state in all classes, and there are 21-24 schools per division except for 1A, which has about 70 schools. For individuals, you can qualify for state as long by finishing among the top third of the competitors (e.g. the top 33%).

Oregon has a different amount of qualifiers depending on classification: 4A, 5A and 6A send just over 1/3 of the schools to state, while 1A-3A is combined into one division and send only 10% of the schools to state. For individuals, you can qualify for state as long as you finish among the top 10 athletes in 6A (top 15-20% depending on the league), top 7 athletes in 5A (top 12-25% depending on the league), top 5 athletes in 4A (top 12-18% depending on the league), and top 5 athletes in 1A-3A (a very small fraction if all schools had full teams).

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

NXN Boys Projections

So, if you hadn't noticed, I didn't end up posting the All-Time individual performance lists from the regionals after the first week. The Southwest was already probably not going to happen, because it was only the second year at the course, but the South being so muddy prevented me from doing that region either. I may at some point go back and review it for the races during the last weekend, but for now I'm just going to skip it since we would be missing a quarter of the regions anyways.

Instead, here is a post about how the NXN Nationals fields might be looking. Normally, these projections include many races for all the teams (most importantly NXR and each of their State meets, but also including some small weighting for season bests from invitationals if applicable), however as I haven't had time to do that for many teams this year this is almost strictly based on NXR (with a pair of slight exceptions on both sides as noted below).

Boys Teams:

120 Great Oak CA
191 Dana Hills CA
214 The Woodlands TX
226 Hopkins MN
247 Sandburg IL
262 American Fork UT
267 Timpanogos UT
272 Lone Peak UT
275 Mountain Vista CO
276 Liverpool NY
281 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
285 Downingtown West PA
288 Southlake Carroll TX
296 Edina MN
301 Wayzata MN
301 Neuqua Valley IL
301 Lyons Township IL
337 Bozeman MT
344 Summit OR
380 Christian Brothers NJ
393 Marietta GA
420 Trinity Prep FL

Notes:

It is worth noting that the South ratings are a wild guess, so I could very well be way off. Also, I took into account additional factors for two boys and two girls teams:

For the Fayetteville-Manlius NY boys, I added in Peter Ryan with a wild guess that he could run with their #3 from their regional race (he was their #1 all year, and his coach seems to have tried to be careful with him over the last few weeks, so without having any real good idea of the situation this seemed like an okay guess). I have no idea if he is even going to run, let alone run well, so he could still change things quite a bit (this puts him as the #88 scorer in the field, with their #1 at 19 and #6 at 128).

For the Christian Brothers NJ boys, I know that my scores for them are quite a bit different than others seem to have them at, so just like I did with the Davis girls I also averaged in their state meet (MOC) races to see how that changed things. Surprisingly, just like with the Davis girls, it didn't push the needle hardly at all.


Top Individuals (194+ ratings):

Ben Petrella, Liverpool NY (team runner)
Casey Clinger, American Fork UT (team runner)
Phillip Rocha, Arcadia CA
Jonathan Davis, Oakwood IL
Alek Parsons, Ogden UT
Paul Roberts, Lyons CO
Brody Smith, Cody WY
Jaret Carpenter, Wayzata MN (team runner)
Austin Tamagno, Brea Olinda CA
Benjamin Veatch, Carmel IN
Micah Mather, Highland Park MN
Jack Yearian, Bellarmine Prep WA
Eduardo Herrera, Madera South CA
Seth Hirsch, Millard West NE
Brodey Hasty, Brentwood TN
Andy Monroe, Crater OR

NXN Girls Projections

So, if you hadn't noticed, I didn't end up posting the All-Time individual performance lists from the regionals after the first week. The Southwest was already probably not going to happen, because it was only the second year at the course, but the South being so muddy prevented me from doing that region either. I may at some point go back and review it for the races during the last weekend, but for now I'm just going to skip it since we would be missing a quarter of the regions anyways.

Instead, here is a post about how the NXN Nationals fields might be looking. Normally, these projections include many races for all the teams (most importantly NXR and each of their State meets, but also including some small weighting for season bests from invitationals if applicable), however as I haven't had time to do that for many teams this year this is almost strictly based on NXR (with a pair of slight exceptions on both sides as noted below).

Girls Teams:

61 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
146 Great Oak CA
192 Pennsbury PA
199 Saratoga Springs NY
258 American Fork UT
271 Davis CA
278 Carmel IN
282 Willmar MN
284 Edina MN
285 Sunset OR
306 Lake Braddock VA
307 Naperville North IL
311 Bozeman MT
326 North Rockland NY
329 Northville MI
329 Kingwood TX
344 Centerville OH
352 Southlake Carroll TX
382 Blacksburg VA
385 La Salle Academy RI
397 Davis UT
441 Xavier Prep AZ

Notes:

It is worth noting that the South ratings are a wild guess, so I could very well be way off. Also, I took into account additional factors for two boys and two girls teams:

For the Sunset OR girls, I thought it would be a safe bet that their usual #4 Kelly Makin would be a little closer to where she was mid-season, as she her injury is now 2 months behind her and hopefully she has been healthy enough to start getting back into it. She wasn't placed where she was mid-season, but MUCH closer to where their #4 was at the regional meet (I placed her at 19:37.6 for NXN-Northwest).

For the Davis UT girls, I thought they ran decently far behind where they were at previous races, and since I have a somewhat decent idea of how their state meet course runs, I took a weighted average of those two performances (weighted 3x towards NXR, 2x towards state). Surprisingly, it ended up not making much difference at all.

Davis CA #1, Fiona O'Keeffe, has been injured for a while now. She barely made it through the state meet in once piece. I'm going to take a wild guess that she isn't running at NXN, and the scores above reflect that. Were she to run what she did at state, Davis would be about 15 points behind Great Oak at #3.



Top Individuals (150+ ratings):

Katie Rainsberger, Air Force Academy CO
Kaitlyn Neal, Fayetteville-Manlius NY (team runner)
Judy Pendergast, Naperville North IL (team runner)
Stephanie Jenks, Unattached IA
Christian Aragon, Billings Senior MT
Kelsey Chmiel, Saratoga Springs NY (team runner)
Cailie Logue, Girard KS
Kate Murphy, Lake Braddock VA (team runner)
Aislinn Devlin, Downingtown West PA
Ella Donaghu, Grant OR
Grace Ping, Cotter MN
Bethany Hasz, Alexandria MN
Emma Benner, Forest Lake MN

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Nov. 14 Weekend Review

Using the adjustments posted on the All-Time Regional posts, it might be interesting to see how the competition is stacking up.

Here are the Top 10 Individuals, and a note on the teams.

Top Ten Boys Individuals:

15:06.0 - Jaret Carpenter - Wayzata MN
15:07.9 - Brody Smith - Cody WY
15:09.8 - Jonathan Davis - Oakwood IL
15:10.2 - Micah Mather - Highland Park MN
15:11.3 - Benjamin Veatch - Carmel IN
15:12.5 - Seth Hirsch - Millard West NE
15:13.1 - Jack Yearian - Bellarmine Prep WA
15:16.4 - Andy Monroe - Crater OR
15:18.5 - Isaac Harding - Rockford MI
15:18.7 - Jack Aho - Grayslake Central IL


Top Ten Girls Individuals:

17:09.5 - Judy Pendergast - Naperville North IL
17:12.0 - Annie Hill - Glacier MT
17:12.8 - Stephanie Jenks - Unattached IA
17:14.8 - Christina Aragon - Billings Senior MT
17:23.7 - Cailie Logue - Girard KS
17:23.9 - Ella Donaghu - Grant OR
17:28.9 - Grace Ping - Cotter MN
17:29.3 - Bethany Hasz - Jefferson - Alexandria MN
17:29.3 - Emma Benner - Forest Lake MN
17:34.1 - Tiahna Vladic - Billings Senior MT



Boys Team Notes:

Hopkins MN looked very strong, clearly the best of last weekend. I know Sandburg is highly ranked, but I haven't looked to see if it was an off race for them or if Hopkins is simply better.

The Northwest #3 and #4 teams, unfortunately, look like the weakest of the Top 4 finishers. Wayzata MN looked a bit stronger than Lyons Township, but but looked solid and are probably going to be in the conversation for an At-Large bid (I would think).


Girls Team Notes:

None of the teams really separated themselves at the top. In fact, in a smaller field, the fourth place team from the Midwest (Carmel IN) looks like the best of the bunch (scoring the 12 teams against eachother, they come out on top over Willmar MN 129-137 with Edina next with 138)... but that's the way it goes sometimes. Pretty much all the teams are bunched together, aside from HL#4 Wayzata and NW#4 Jesuit. HL#3 St. Thomas Aquinas is probably not sitting in very good position, not because they aren't good enough (they are among that bunch), but because the scoring at their regional just had them so far behind. Kind of like some of the Southwest boys teams a few years ago. It's going to be interesting to see who comes out with the At-Large bids on the girls side, though I'm guessing that the #3 teams from NY and SW will get in ahead of any of these teams.

NXN Midwest Individuals History

Continuing our look at the Fastest Regional Times:

Top 20 Times in NXN Midwest Regional History.

I'll be doing this for almost every regional this year (because I haven't been doing ratings all year long for the entire nation, and this gives an idea of how the regional courses compare - and it is good info to put out there). The only ones I might not be doing it for are regionals that haven't been mostly the same course over the last nine years, although maybe I will (we will see).

I will also include a quick note about how these Top 20 athletes have done at NXN compard to a set standard for cross-region comparison (the #11 scoring runner at NXN - picked because I figured the median #1 runner on teams is more or less going to be fairly consistent, and because I needed something quick and easy to calcuate for). This will give an example of how the courses generally compare to eachother (in good weather years) beyond my ratings system or Meylan's speed ratings over at Tullyrunners.com. Consider the comparisons ROUGH, but good enough to give an idea of the differences.



Boys:

14:53.1 - Lukas Verzbicas - IL - 2010
14:54.3 - Chris Derrick - IL - 2007
14:59.9 - Jonathan Davis - IL - 2015
15:01.3 - Benjamin Veatch - IN - 2015
15:01.9 - Jesse Reiser - IL - 2014
15:03.1 - Ryan Robinson - MI - 2014
15:05.2 - Jack Driggs - IL - 2010
15:05.9 - Benjamin Veatch - IN - 2014
15:06.2 - Zach Wills - OH - 2010
15:06.2 - Matt Pereira - IL - 2014
15:07.1 - Zach Wills - OH - 2009
15:07.5 - Chris Walden - IN - 2010
15:08.5 - Isaac Harding - MI - 2015
15:08.7 - Jack Aho - IL - 2015
15:09.1 - Charlie Kern - IL - 2015
15:09.5 - Ryan Clevenger - IL - 2014
15:11.3 - Sean Torpy - IL - 2015
15:12.3 - Kevin Havel - IL - 2007
15:13.0 - Zack Snider - IN - 2014
15:13.4 - Zach Dale - IL - 2014



Girls:

17:00.6 - Judy Pendergast - IL - 2015
17:28.2 - Anna West - MO - 2015
17:28.6 - Sarah Leinheiser - IN - 2015
17:28.8 - Sarah Kettel - MI - 2014
17:29.1 - Madison Troy - MI - 2015
17:30.6 - Audrey Belf - MI - 2014
17:31.3 - Anna Sophia Keller - IL - 2014
17:33.5 - Alex Buck - IN - 2015
17:34.3 - Hannah Neczypor - OH - 2009
17:35.5 - Madeline Chambers - OH - 2009
17:38.1 - Ashley Erba - IN - 2012
17:38.1 - Rachel Bonner - MI - 2014
17:38.8 - Lindsey Payne - IL - 2015
17:39.7 - Dominique Clairmonte - OH - 2014
17:45.3 - Jocelyn Long - IL - 2015
17:45.7 - Kayla Beattie - IL - 2010
17:46.6 - Madeline Perez - IL - 2012
17:48.8 - Sophia Racette - MO - 2014
17:48.9 - Morgan Gigandet - OH - 2015
17:49.9 - Brooke Wilson - IL - 2015




Regional Comparison Notes:

12 boys competed at NXN, with their regional times averaging 15:04.4 and their National times being an average of 1.04% faster than the #11 scoring runner.

9 girls competed at NXN, with their regional times averaging 17:36.7 and their National times being an average of 1.30% faster than the #11 scoring runner.


Adjustment: Boys = 15:13.9, Girls = 17:50.6 (rating equivalents for these marks would roughly be 192 and 140)