NXN History - Top Programs and Regions

I haven't updated this one in a few years, so I think it's about time to take another look at it.

Scores of the top programs are adjusted averages, where I capped the points at 380 and include any non-qualifying team as scoring 380 points. This is roughly the average score of the #18 team (375 for boys and 392 for girls) and is a way to compare teams that don't qualify as often (e.g. good programs from strong regions), but still favor teams that consistently qualify and place well.

note: I'm also referring to Top-8 instead of Top-10 or Top-Half (11) in this post because that is the point of the greatest scoring differential which makes it the cleanest and most consistent cut-off between teams that are competitive with the Podium Teams and teams that aren't. I also considered using Top-18 instead of Top-15 for the third point of consideration because there are 18 AQ teams every year, but I ended up sticking with Top-15 because it is closer to 330 points (which in a field of 22 teams is generally around the point where teams are still competitive with the top half of the field) and because it gives a clearer definition of regions that aren't struggling to be competitive with the field as a whole -- only having 4 teams per year not make the cut isn't as meaningful when pointing to differences between most of the regions, which are fairly dominated by 2-3 regions on either side which does make it similar to the Podium comparison but not as completely a "These teams are competitive with the majority of the national field" comparison.

Top-10 Boys Programs from 2007-2019: (# Trips, Podium finishes, Top-8 and Top-15 finishes)

1. 255.15 American Fork UT (9 trips: 3/9/9)
2. 268.69 North Central WA (8 trips: 3/8/8)
3. 269.54 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (12 trips: 3/5/8)
4. 270.85 Christian Brothers Academy NJ (10 trips: 2/6/7)
5. 294.69 Great Oak CA (5 trips: 3/5/5)
6. 309.15 The Woodlands TX (10 trips: 1/5/6)
7. 311.62 Arcadia CA (5 trips: 2/3/4)
8. 318.08 Dana Hills CA (8 trips: 1/4/5)
9. 318.69 York IL (7 trips: 1/2/7)
10. 319.15 Davis UT (6 trips: 1/3/5)

honorable mention: Southlake Carroll TX, Wayzata MN, Loudoun Valley VA also average under 330

Top-10 Girls Programs from 2007-2019: (# Trips, Podium finishes, Top-8 and Top-15 finishes)

1. 89.00 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (13 trips: 11/13/13)
2. 214.92 Saratoga Springs NY (12 trips: 5/9/12)
3. 288.38 Great Oak CA (9 trips: 3/6/8)
4. 288.38 Carmel IN (7 trips: 2/7/7)
5. 292.46 Fort Collins CO (7 trips: 1/7/7)
6. 299.46 Saugus CA (7 trips: 3/4/6)
7. 306.46 Naperville North IL (8 trips: 2/3/8)
8. 312.46 Wayzata MN (5 trips: 2/5/5)
9. 323.85 Tatnall DE (6 trips: 2/4/5)
10. 336.85 Jesuit OR (7 trips: 0/1/7)

honorable mention: Southlake Carroll TX, Davis CA, Bozeman MT, Summit OR, Davis UT also average under 350

Average Region Score - Boys Auto-Qualifiers: (and # Podium/Top-8/Top-15 finishes for ALL teams)

1. 215.58 Southwest (9 Podium Teams, 23 Top-8 and 32 Top-15 out of 35)
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2. 251.46 California (7 Podium Teams, 17 Top-8 and 29 Top-15 out of 42)
3. 262.42 Midwest (4 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 30 Top-15 out of 35)
4. 272.96 Northwest (6 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 20 Top-15 out of 29)
5. 280.73 Northeast (2 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 19 Top-15 out of 31)
6. 286.31 New York (3 Podium Teams, 8 Top-8 and 20 Top-15 out of 28)
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7. 325.77 South (3 Podium Teams, 9 Top-8 and 17 Top-15 out of 31)
8. 328.35 Southeast (4 Podium Teams, 5 Top-8 and 14 Top-15 out of 27)
9. 335.46 Heartland (1 Podium Team, 3 Top-8 and 14 Top-15 out of 28)

There has developed 3 mostly distinct tiers of regions on the boys side; the Southwest teams almost always finish in the Top-15 and almost 2/3 finish in the Top-8 which means that as a region the SW clearly stands out above the rest; about 2/3 of the teams from the second tier finish in the Top-15 and a healthy amount finish in the Top-8; the teams in the third tier only finish in the Top-15 about half of the time and although the South is about as good at finishing in the Top-8 as the second tier regions a lot more of their teams are finishing pretty far back.

Average Region Score - Girls Auto-Qualifiers: (and # Podium/Top-8/Top-15 finishes for ALL teams)

1. 150.00 New York (16 Podium Teams, 28 Top-8 and 38 Top-15 out of 39)
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2. 251.69 California (8 Podium Teams, 14 Top-8 and 29 Top-15 out of 37)
3. 254.19 Southwest (4 Podium Teams, 20 Top-8 and 30 Top-15 out of 34)
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4. 274.19 Midwest (4 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 24 Top-15 out of 32)
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5. 313.04 Northwest (2 Podium Teams, 7 Top-8 and 22 Top-15 out of 30)
6. 320.63 Heartland (2 Podium Teams, 6 Top-8 and 16 Top-15 out of 27)
7. 332.54 Southeast (2 Podium Teams, 7 Top-8 and 16 Top-15 out of 30)
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8. 376.58 Northeast (0 Podium Teams, 5 Top-8 and 11 Top-15 out of 29)
9. 382.72 South (1 Podium Team, 4 Top-8 and 9 Top-15 out of 28)

There has developed 4 somewhat murky tiers of regions on the girls side; the New York teams almost always finish in the Top-15, almost 3/4 of their teams finish in the Top-8 and almost half finish on the podium and it's pretty rare that the top NY team doesn't end up the national champion; the second tier regions (CA and SW) have more than 2/3 of their teams finish in the Top-15 and more than 1/3 of their teams finish in the Top-8; the Midwest is between tiers (similar rate of podium finishes as the SW but almost half that of their Top-8 finishes and not nearly as strong in Top-15 finishes, and similar Top-8 finishes as California but only half of their podium finishes), and same with the Northwest in terms of Top-15 finishes but without the podium or even Top-8 finishes which puts the NW in the third tier. The third tier teams have more than half of their teams finish in the Top-15 and about a quarter finish in the Top-8; the fourth tier (Northeast and South) only have about 1/3 of their teams finish in the Top-15 and the Northeast and South combine to have more than half of the #19-22 finishes (13 for the Northeast and 14 for the South, with the only other region that has more than 5 such teams is the Southeast with 9).

Average Region Score - Boys Top-2 Finishers: (and # of At-Large bids received)

1. 208.88 Southwest (9 At-Large Invites)
2. 231.58 California (16 At-Large Invites)
3. 246.88 Midwest (9 At-Large Invites)
4. 270.73 Northwest (3 At-Large Invites)
5. 280.73 Northeast (5 At-Large Invites)
6. 284.00 New York (2 At-Large Invites)
7. 318.58 South (5 At-Large Invites)
8. 328.35 Southeast (1 At-Large Invite)
9. 335.46 Heartland (2 At-Large Invites)

Average Region Score - Girls Top-2 Finishers: (and # of At-Large bids received)

1. 149.19 New York (13 At-Large Invites)
2. 240.96 California (11 At-Large Invites)
3. 242.62 Southwest (8 At-Large Invites)
4. 267.73 Midwest (6 At-Large Invites)
5. 306.19 Northwest (4 At-Large Invites)
6. 320.63 Heartland (0 At-Large Invites)
7. 323.88 Southeast (4 At-Large Invites)
8. 369.12 Northeast (3 At-Large Invites)
9. 380.00 South (3 At-Large Invites)

Additionally, here's a comparison of the % of teams invited that have finished in the Top-3/8/15 (can be derived from the AQ Regional Ranking list):

Boys Regions:

1. Southwest (25.7%, 65.7%, 91.4%)
2. Midwest (11.4%, 37.1%, 85.7%)
3. New York (10.7%, 28.6%, 71.4%)
4. Northwest (20.7%, 44.8%, 69.0%)
5. California (16.7%, 40.5%, 69.0%)
6. Northeast (06.5%, 41.9%, 61.3%)
7. South (09.7%, 29.0%, 54.8%)
8. Southeast (14.8%, 18.5%, 51.9%)
9. Heartland (03.6%, 10.7%, 50.0%)

Girls Regions:

1. New York (41.0%, 71.8%, 97.4%)
2. Southwest (11.8%, 58.8%, 88.2%)
3. California (21.6%, 37.8%, 78.4%)
4. Midwest (12.5%, 40.6%, 75.0%)
5. Northwest (06.7%, 23.3%, 73.3%)
6. Heartland (07.4%, 22.2%, 59.3%)
7. Southeast (06.7%, 23.3%, 53.3%)
8. Northeast (00.0%, 17.2%, 37.9%)
9. South (03.6%, 14.3%, 32.1%)

And, finally, one last comparison: the % of teams from each region (same as above) but only 2013+ for girls and 2012+ for boys, because that's about the time that the depth of the national field become close to what it is today (possibly more on that in a later post).

Boys Regions: (AQ Average, Top-2 Average, # Teams: Podium, Top-8, Top-15)

1. Southwest (210.31, 199.44, 24 teams: 6, 15, 22 or 25.0%, 62.5% and 91.7%)
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2. California (241.31, 221.06, 24 teams: 6, 12, 18 or 25.0%, 50.0% and 75.0%)
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3. Midwest (276.31, 260.81, 21 teams: 0, 7, 16 or 0%, 33.3% and 76.2%)
4. Southeast (269.88, 269.88, 17 teams: 4, 5, 14 or 23.5%, 29.4% and 82.4%)
5. New York (285.06, 281.31, 18 teams: 2, 6, 13 or 11.1%, 33.3% and 72.2%)
6. Northwest (286.19, 282.56, 19 teams: 4, 7, 10 or 21.1%, 36.8% and 52.6%)
7. Northeast (290.94, 290.94, 17 teams: 1, 7, 10 or 5.9%, 41.2% and 58.8%)
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8. Heartland (339.31, 339.31, 18 teams: 1, 2, 9 or 5.6%, 11.1% and 50.0%)
9. South (371.75, 360.06, 18 teams: 0, 3, 8 or 0%, 16.7% and 44.4%)

On the boys side, aside from the Southwest, there isn't really any strong difference between the regions as a whole ... California's front-end talent is still very strong with many podium and Top-8 finishes but not compared to the SW in terms of Top-8 and Top-15 kind of puts the region between the SW and the next tier of teams; a separation in Tier 2 between the SE/MW/NY and NE/NW in terms of Top-15 finishes but not Top-3 (where SE and NW both have as many as the other regions in that tier and below combined) or Top-8 (where they are all very similar); the Heartland and South are still comparatively struggling, though, even though the back end of Tier 2 is close to them in terms of Top-15 finishes.

Girls Regions: (AQ Average, Top-2 Average, # Teams: Podium, Top-8, Top-15)

1. New York (184.36, 184.36, 18 teams: 6, 10, 17 or 33.3%, 55.6% and 94.4%)
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2. California (227.93, 221.86, 19 teams: 5, 10, 17 or 26.3%, 52.6% and 89.5%)
3. Southwest (255.43, 233.93, 21 teams: 3, 13, 18 or 14.3%, 61.9% and 85.7%)
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4. Midwest (257.71, 250.29, 18 teams: 3, 7, 15 or 16.7%, 38.9% and 83.3%)
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5. Northwest (297.57, 284.86, 18 teams: 2, 6, 13 or 11.1%, 33.3% and 72.2%)
6. Heartland (293.20, 293.20, 15 teams: 2, 5, 10 or 13.3%, 33.3% and 66.7%)
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7. Northeast (370.86, 364.00, 16 teams: 0, 2, 4 or 0%, 12.5% and 25.0%)
8. Southeast (375.29, 371.93, 15 teams: 0, 1, 5 or 0%, 6.7% and 33.3%)
9. South (375.69, 373.00, 14 teams: 0, 2, 6 or 0%, 14.3% and 42.9%)

... as you can see, the disparity even on the girls side is nowhere near where it has been overall, particularly when looking beyond average score and looking at the distribution of podium Top-8/15 finishes. The Southwest has overtaken New York in terms of getting Top-8 finishes on the girls side, and California has essentially matched New York as well (although NY or more specifically Fayetteville-Manlius, obviously, is still at the top when it comes to Championships and Podium finishes -- this is more about NY #2/3/4 teams no longer being podium or even top-8 teams every single year: in the last 7 years aside from FM, NY has sent 11 girls teams and ended up with 3 Top-8 finishes including Saratoga's win last year compared to 6 finishes outside the top half of the field ... which is much different from 2007-2012 when there were 3-4 NY girls teams in the top half of the field every single year, or the 2004-2006 pre-Regional years when there may have been as many capable of doing so aside from maybe 2005). The Heartland and Northwest are also essentially on par with the Midwest now in terms of podium and Top-8 finishes (though the Heartland has done so with only 1 At-Large team vs. 4 each from the MW and NW, and the HL still a bit further back in terms of depth as evidenced by total Top-15 finishes). Meanwhile, the Southeast and South have nearly traded places. A clear grouping of regions though with Tier 1 being New York, California and the Southwest; Tier 2 being Midwest, Northeast and Heartland; Tier 3 being South, Southeast and Northeast.

(also, another way to look at it: on average, the SW has 2 teams among the top 8 in both the boys and girls races, CA has 1.5 in both as does the NY girls, while the NY boys and MW/NW boys and girls average 1 per year as does the NE boys, the HL and South on both sides average 0.5 per year as does the SE boys, while the Southeast girls average 0 ... which has some implications for potential At-Large teams: Southeast girls will typically need to show during the season just how great they are by beating teams from other regions, while #3/4 teams from the SW on both sides will have an easier time qualifying if they merely finish close to the #2 team at NXR -- IF it appears to be an "average" year for the SW and SE AQ teams in this example, because every year is different and it could be that the top SE girls look much stronger than usual and so finishing close to them will still put a team in strong consideration, or the SW teams much weaker than usual which lessens the value of finishing close to them without much else of a resume).

In general, the nation as a whole has been much stronger and MUCH more balanced from 2013-2019 on the girls side and 2012-2019 on the boys side... aside from the Fayetteville-Manlius girls and the Southwest boys continuing to more or less dominate the rest.

WIAA 2A Scholastic Cup Preview for 2020-2024 cycle

In the (Fall) 2020 - (Spring) 2024 cycle, it looks like there will be 61 schools in the 2A classification.

Here's a breakdown of the schools by League (and District), their 2016-2020 Scholastic Cup (athletics scores only) ranking, and a projection as to how many state allocations each district/region will get.

District 1:
10 teams in 2 leagues; Either 2.5 spots to state if they do not combine with District 2, or 4.5 spots if they do.

WESCO (2):
2A#22 Archbishop Murphy
2A#40 Cedarcrest

Northwest Conference (8):
2A#2 Sehome
2A#8 Bellingham
2A#11 Lynden
2A#17 Anacortes
2A#19 Burlington-Edison
3A#42 Squalicum
2A#45 Sedro-Woolley
2A#54 Lakewood


District 2:
7 teams in 1 league; 2 spots to state on their own, 4.5 if they combine with District 1 or 6 if they combine with District 3.

KingCo (7):
2A#18 Sammamish
2A#30 Lindbergh
2A#41 Highline
2A#43 Renton
2A#48 Foster
2A#62 Tyee
2A#64 Evergreen (Seattle)


District 3:
16 teams in 2 leagues; 4 spots to state on their own, or 6 if they combine with District 2.

Olympic (7):
2A#5 North Kitsap
2A#15 Port Angeles
2A#16 Olympic
2A#20 Sequim
2A#32 Kingston
2A#56 Bremerton
2A#60 North Mason

South Puget Sound League (9):
2A#7 White River
2A#13 Fife
2A#21 Steilacoom
4A#56 Enumclaw
2A#37 Franklin Pierce
2A#39 Orting
2A#46 Washington
2A#51 Henry Foss
2A#61 Clover Park


District 4:
16 teams in 2 leagues; 4 spots to state

Evergreen Conference (7):
2A#9 W.F. West
2A#12 Tumwater
2A#26 Black Hills
3A#55 Shelton
2A#49 Aberdeen
2A#55 Centralia
2A#64 Rochester

Greater St. Helens League (9):
2A#3 Columbia River
2A#10 Ridgefield
2A#25 Washougal
2A#28 Woodland
2A#29 Mark Morris
2A#31 Hockinson
3A#55 Hudson's Bay
2A#44 R.A. Long
3A#67 Fort Vancouver


District 5:
7 teams in 1 league.; 2 spots to state on their own, or 3.5 if they combine with District 8

Central Washington Athletic Conference (7):
2A#4 Selah
2A#6 Ellensburg
2A#33 East Valley (Yakima)
2A#36 Othello
2A#38 Ephrata
2A#47 Prosser
2A#59 Grandview


District 8:
6 teams in 1 league; 1.5 spots to state on their own, or 3.5 if they combine with District 5

Greater Spokane League (6):
2A#14 Pullman
2A#24 West Valley (Spokane)
2A#34 East Valley (Spokane)
2A#35 Clarkston
3A#53 Shadle Park
3A#62 Rogers (Spokane)



I don't know yet if District 2 is going to combine with District 1 or District 3 for state qualification purposes, or if they are going to qualify on their own now that they have 7 members. I did notice that District 1 is moving their XC Championships from South Whidbey to Cedarcrest, which would make things more convenient for combining with District 2...

p.s., here is the hypothetical XC District Meet merge from last year using the new realignment ...

Also, keep in mind that not every single team competed at their state qualifier (CWAC limited the teams the GNL could send, but I think that was the only league effected in 2A; West Valley-Spokane wasn't all that far off from the #14 Pullman boys at the GNL)

New 2A Top-20 Boys:

1. 44 - Rogers (Spokane) - 2A ER #1/3.5 - Qualify
2. 149 - Sehome - 2A NW #1/4.5 - Qualify
3. 162 - Steilacoom - 2A D3 #1/4 - Qualify
4. 176 - Bellingham - 2A NW #2/4.5 - Qualify
5. 211 - Ellensburg - 2A ER #2/3.5 - Qualify
6. 239 - Columbia River - 2A D4 #1/4 - Qualify
7. 249 - Sedro-Woolley - 2A NW #3/4.5 - Qualify
8. 249 - Enumclaw - 2A D3 #2/4 - Qualify
9. 261 - Selah - 2A ER #3/3.5 - Qualify
10. 282 - Lynden - 2A NW #4/4.5 - Qualify
11. 290 - Tumwater - 2A D4 #2/4 - Qualify
12. 309 - Ridgefield - 2A D4 #3/4 - Qualify
13. 317 - Cedarcrest - 2A NW #5/4.5 - ?????
14. 325 - Pullman - 2A ER #4/3.5 - ?????
15. 330 - Renton - 2A NW #6/4.5 - DNQ
16. 340 - Lakewood - 2A NW #7/4.5 - DNQ
17. 374 - Shelton - 2A D4 #4/4 - Qualify
18. 378 - Port Angeles - 2A D3 #3/4 - Qualify
19. 386 - Lindbergh - 2A NW #8/4.5 - DNQ
20. 389 - Anacortes - 2A NW #9/4.5 - DNQ

All but one qualifier comes from the Top-20 here, with the last one being #22 North Kitsap from District 3. Only one of the top 13/14 would miss out. Good balance for what is generally the most balanced classification (in terms of who doesn't qualify). Notable that #1 Rogers (Spokane) and #17 Shelton are dropping down from 3A, and #8 Enumclaw is dropping down from 4A.

This is with assuming that the GSL and CWAC continue to combine for the Eastern Regional, and the NWC/WESCO and KingCo continue to combine for the Northwest Regional, and also that all leagues are fully represented at their regional meets. 2A looks very much intact, which shouldn't be too surprising as Rogers (Spokane) is trading places with Cheney and unless I'm forgetting a team I think that the next best team to left the classification (Toppenish) was only fifth at their district and the allocations are potentially getting better balanced with some of the District 3 teams moving north to the KingCo and taking an allocation with them to the NW Regional (moving 1 state spot from the weakest district to the strongest).

New 2A Top-20 Girls:

1. 94 - Ellensburg - 2A ER #1/3.5 - Qualify
2. 130 - Bellingham - 2A NW #1/4.5 - Qualify
3. 151 - West Valley (Spokane) - 2A ER #2/3.5 - Qualify
4. 167 - Sehome - 2A NW #2/4.5 - Qualify
5. 177 - Pullman - 2A ER #3/3.5 - Qualify
6. 212 - Anacortes - 2A NW #3/4.5 - Qualify
7. 248 - Lakewood - 2A NW #4/4.5 - Qualify
8. 264 - Cedarcrest - 2A NW #5/4.5 - ????
9. 286 - Hockinson - 2A D4 #1/4 - Qualify
10. 298 - Port Angeles - 2A D3 #1/4 - Qualify
11. 302 - Selah - 2A ER #4/3.5 - ????
12. 324 - Burlington-Edison - 2A NW #6/4.5 - DNQ
13. 333 - Enumclaw - 2A D3 #2/4 - Qualify
14. 341 - Shelton - 2A D4 #2/4 - Qualify
15. 351 - Washougal - 2A D4 #3/4 - Qualify
16. 358 - White River - 2A D3 #3/4 - Qualify
17. 358 - Ephrata - 2A ER #5/3.5 - DNQ
18. 362 - Squalicum - 2A NW #7/4.5 - DNQ
19. 377 - Washington - 2A D3 #4/4 - Qualify
20. 380 - Tumwater - 2A D4 #4/4 - Qualify

All of the qualifiers come from the Top-20 for the 2A Girls, but the field would have missed out on two of the Top-12 teams. Notable that #14 Shelton is dropping down from 3A.


Although I obviously used different ratings for this merge compared to the state preview (this was done by looking at how every runner ran at state vs. how they did at districts, while the state preview was purely based on my estimate on how the meets would compare), you can check this post to see how it compared to last year.

WIAA 3A Scholastic Cup Preview for 2020-2024 cycle

In the (Fall) 2020 - (Spring) 2024 cycle, it looks like there will be 78 boys programs and 78 girls programs competing in the 3A classification, which means there will be 20 teams qualifying to state.

Here's a breakdown of the schools by League (and District), their 2016-2020 Scholastic Cup (athletics scores only) ranking, and a projection as to how many state allocations each district/region will get.

District 1:
17 teams in 2 leagues; 4.5 spots to state

WESCO (14):
3A#11 Edmonds-Woodway
3A#13 Snohomish
3A#27 Arlington
3A#28 Shorecrest
3A#36 Stanwood
3A#51 Monroe
3A#42 Shorewood
3A#45 Everett
3A#49 Lynnwood
3A#50 Marysville Pilchuck
3A#53 Meadowdale
2A#42 Mountlake Terrace
4A#62 Cascade (Everett)
3A#60 Marysville Getchell

Northwest Conference (3):
3A#44 Ferndale
4A#60 Mount Vernon
3A#58 Oak Harbor

District 2:
24 teams in 2 leagues; 6 spots to state

KingCo (7):
3A#5 Bellevue
3A#7 Mercer Island
2A#1 Liberty (Issaquah)
3A#10 Lake Washington
3A#12 Interlake
4A#58 Hazen
3A#57 Juanita

Metro (17):
3A#1 Holy Names Academy -- girls only
3A#3 O'Dea -- boys only
3A#8 Lakeside (Seattle)
3A#9 Garfield
3A#14 Seattle Prep
3A#15 Eastside Catholic
3A#19 Roosevelt
3A#20 Bainbridge
3A#32 Bishop Blanchet
3A#38 Ballard
3A#43 West Seattle
3A#46 Rainier Beach
3A#51 Ingraham
3A#56 Nathan Hale
3A#62 Chief Sealth
3A#65 Franklin
3A#67 Lincoln (Seattle)


District 3:
22 teams in 3 leagues; 7 spots to state (combines with District 4)

North Puget Sound League (7):
4A#27 Auburn Riverside
4A#42 Thomas Jefferson
4A#44 Todd Beamer
4A#48 Kentlake
4A#49 Auburn Mountainview
4A#64 Kent Meridian
4A#65 Auburn

Pierce County League (7):
3A#23 Stadium
3A#25 Lincoln (Tahoma)
3A#28 Woodrow Wilson
3A#31 Bonney Lake
3A#40 Lakes
3A#59 Spanaway Lake
3A#63 Mount Tahoma

South Sound League (8):
3A#6 Gig Harbor
3A#16 Capital
3A#21 Yelm
3A#22 Central Kitsap
3A#24 Peninsula
3A#39 Timberline
3A#47 North Thurston
2A#50 River Ridge

District 4:
5 teams in 1 leagues; 7 spots to state (Combines with District 3)

Greater St. Helens League (5):
3A#18 Prairie
3A#26 Mountain View
3A#30 Kelso
3A#37 Evergreen (Vancouver)
4A#66 Heritage


District 8:
10 teams in 2 leagues; 2.5 spots to state

Greater Spokane League (7):
3A#4 Mount Spokane
4A#15 Mead
3A#17 North Central
4A#43 Walla Walla
2A#23 Cheney
4A#54 Joel Ferris
4A#57 University

Mid-Columbia Conference (3):
3A#34 Kennewick
3A#35 Southridge
3A#48 Hermiston (OR)



With 3A District 1 gaining an allocation without also gaining a reliably strong program, it seems likely that it will break their stalemate with CBBN as the least competitive district in the state while 3A looks to widen it's gap as the classification with the least parity between the state qualifying tournaments... (note: there are some good 3A WESCO programs, but the district doesn't appear to be consistently 5-6 teams deep across most sports while still sending 4-5 teams to state)

p.s., here is the hypothetical XC District Meet merge from last year using the new realignment ...


New 3A Top-20 Boys:

1. 64 - Bishop Blanchet - 3A D2 #1/6 - Qualify
2. 80 - North Central - 3A ER #1/2.5 - Qualify
3. 152 - Mead - 3A ER #2/2.5 - Qualify
4. 155 - Arlington - 3A D1 #1/4.5 - Qualify
5. 159 - Mt Spokane - 3A ER #3/2.5 - ?????
6. 194 - Interlake - 3A D2 #2/6 - Qualify
7. 214 - Walla Walla - 3A ER #4/2.5 - DNQ
8. 283 - University - 3A ER #5/2.5 - DNQ
9. 307 - Seattle Prep - 3A D2 #3/6 - Qualify
10. 327 - Stadium - 3A SW #1/7 - Qualify
11. 329 - Cheney - 3A ER #6/2.5 - DNQ
12. 334 - North Thurston - 3A SW #2/7 - Qualify
13. 337 - Lake Washington - 3A D2 #4/6 - Qualify
14. 350 - Ballard - 3A D2 #5/6 - Qualify
15. 354 - Lakes - 3A SW #3/7 - Qualify
16. 365 - O'Dea - 3A D2 #6/6 - Qualify
17. 366 - Auburn Mountainview - 3A SW #4/7 - Qualify
18. 367 - Franklin (WA) - 3A D2 #7/6 - DNQ
19. 387 - Yelm - 3A SW #5/7 - Qualify
20. 397 - Edmonds-Woodway - 3A D1 #2/4.5 - Qualify

On the boys side, potentially missing #5 Mount Spokane last year as well as certainly missing #7 Walla Walla and #8 University and #11 Cheney and #18 Franklin. Qualifying from outside the Top-20 would be #21 Snohomish, #24 Mountlake Terrance and possibly #26 Shorewood (they would be the one splitting with Mt. Spokane) out of District 1 and #22 Peninsula and #27 Bonney Lake out of the Southwest. Three of the Top-8 would be missing, as well as #11 Cheney... that's a lot of the better teams sitting at home.

Notable that #3 Mead, #7 Walla Walla, #8 University and #17 Auburn Mountainview are all dropping down from 4A (and #11 Cheney is moving up from 2A).

New 3A Top-20 Girls:

1. 25 - North Central - 3A ER #1/2.5 - Qualify
2. 111 - Holy Names Academy - 3A D2 #1/6 - Qualify
3. 205 - Bishop Blanchet - 3A D2 #2/6 - Qualify
4. 237 - Central Kitsap - 3A SW #1/7 - Qualify
5. 239 - Arlington - 3A D1 #1/4.5 - Qualify
6. 242 - Kennewick - 3A ER #2/2.5 - Qualify
7. 248 - Mead - 3A ER #3/2.5 - ????
8. 253 - Marysville Getchell - 3A D1 #2/4.5 - Qualify
9. 272 - Edmonds-Woodway - 3A D1 #3/4.5 - Qualify
10. 291 - Ballard - 3A D2 #3/6 - Qualify
11. 296 - Thomas Jefferson - 3A SW #2/7 - Qualify
12. 301 - Eastside Catholic - 3A D2 #4/6 - Qualify
13. 316 - Ingraham - 3A D2 #5/6 - Qualify
14. 318 - Walla Walla - 3A ER #4/2.5 - DNQ
15. 327 - Nathan Hale - 3A D2 #6/6 - Qualify
16. 339 - Hermiston - 3A ER #5/2.5 - DNQ
17. 342 - Joel Ferris - 3A ER #6/2.5 - DNQ
18. 350 - Capital - 3A SW #3/7 - Qualify
19. 351 - Garfield - 3A D2 #7/6 - DNQ
20. 361 - Interlake - 3A D2 #8/6 - DNQ

#7 Mead is the first team that might not qualify, and then several from the Eastern Regional (#14 Walla Walla, #16 Hermiston, #17 Joel Ferris) and a pair of District 2 teams (#19 Garfield and #20 Interlake). Qualifiers from beyond the Top-20 would include from the Southwest #21 Gig Harbor, #22 Stadium, #27 Auburn Riverside and #30 Lakes while qualifiers from District 1 would include #24 Lynnwood and maybe #29 Snohomish (who would be splitting the spot with Mead).

Notable that #7 Mead, #11 Thomas Jefferson, #14 Walla Walla, and #17 Joel Ferris are all dropping down from 4A, and that Cheney might have been among the Top-20 had they been able to run at the 2A Eastern Regional last year (they were #3 out of the GNL, and the CWAC only allowed 2 from the league to compete in the regional; both teams that finished ahead of them were in the Top 6 at state)

Although I obviously used different ratings for this merge compared to the state preview (this was done by looking at how every runner ran at state vs. how they did at districts, while the state preview was purely based on my estimate on how the meets would compare), you can check this post to see how it compared to last year.

WIAA 4A Scholastic Cup Preview for 2020-2024 cycle

In the (Fall) 2020 - (Spring) 2024 cycle, it looks like there will be 51 schools competing in the 4A classification.

Here's a breakdown of the schools by League (and District), their 2016-2020 Scholastic Cup (athletics scores only) ranking, and a projection as to how many state allocations each district/region will get.

District 1:
5 teams in 1 league; 1.5 spots to state

WESCO (5):
4A#9 Henry Jackson
4A#12 Lake Stevens
4A#13 Glacier Peak
4A#22 Kamiak
4A#63 Mariner


District 2:
10 teams in 1 league; 3 spots to state

KingCo (10):
4A#3 Issaquah
4A#4 Skyline
4A#11 Newport (Bellevue)
4A#16 Redmond
4A#21 Woodinville
4A#26 Eastlake
4A#36 Mount Si
4A#40 Bothell
4A#46 Inglemoor
4A#47 North Creek


District 3:
17 teams in 2 leagues; 7 spots to state (combines with District 4)

North Puget Sound League (8):
4A#2 Tahoma
4A#20 Kentwood
4A#25 Sumner
4A#31 Federal Way
4A#32 Kentridge
4A#45 Kennedy Catholic
4A#53 Decatur
4A#61 Mount Rainier

South Puget Sound League (9):
4A#7 Curtis
4A#8 Puyallup
4A#10 Bellarmine Prep
4A#29 Rogers (Puyallup)
4A#33 Olympia
4A#33 South Kitsap
4A#41 Emerald Ridge
3A#33 Bethel
4A#50 Graham-Kapowsin


District 4:
4 teams in 1 leagues; 7 spots to state (combines w/ District 3)

Greater St. Helens League (4):
4A#1 Camas
4A#6 Union
4A#19 Skyview
4A#55 Battle Ground


District 6:
7 teams in 1 league; 2 spots to state

Columbia Basin Big Nine (7):
4A#16 Wenatchee
4A#28 Moses Lake
4A#35 Eastmont
4A#37 West Valley (Yakima)
4A#39 Sunnyside
4A#52 Eisenhower
4A#58 A.C. Davis

District 8:
8 teams in 2 leagues; 2.5 spots to state

Greater Spokane League (3):
4A#5 Central Valley
4A#13 Lewis & Clark
4A#24 Gonzaga Prep

Mid-Columbia Conference (5):
3A#2 Kamiakin
4A#18 Richland
4A#23 Chiawana
4A#30 Hanford
4A#38 Pasco


Side note: if the Eastern Regional was restored with full participation from both CBBN and GSL/MCC, then they might get 5 full allocations rather than 2+2.5 unless WESCO and KingCo also restored the Northwest Regional (which they really should), in which case they might potentially remain at 4.5 allocations. Not to mention, it would greatly improve the competitive balance and make the state field all that much stronger. Only reason I say "might" is because I'm not 100% sure how the WIAA proceeds with the idea of districts combining for a regional: if the # of teams from both districts are combined together prior to determining allocations, or after, would be the key difference... there are pros and cons to either order, because if it is done prior to combining then it doesn't ensure that the regional is always properly represented at state but it protects from the scenario of the districts not combining the second year of allocations, and visa versa if calculations are done after combining. The simple fix for that issue is for the WIAA to have stricter rules in place to create competitive balance by enforcing regional qualifiers - or, in other words, making sure districts combine for both years of an agreement rather than only once - when it is deemed necessary, which along with enforcing equitable representation at regional qualifiers would go a long ways towards establishing a better competitive balance within the state - no more unfair/unbalanced regional qualifiers due to one district being able to outvote the other and ensure greater representation, and the state being able to ensure that no state qualifier is too small to ensure the highest quality state field reasonably possible (e.g. a rule in place where any district that qualifies less than 3 teams to state MUST be combined with the nearest district and both districts MUST have representation proportional to their size at the regional tournament; in 4A for the next 2 years, that would mean that the NW, SW and Eastern Regionals would have to exist with each district getting proportional representation such as 4/5 WESCO + 8/10 KingCo in the NW, 6/8 NPSL + 7/9 SPSL + 3/4 GSHL in the SW, and 2/3 GSL + 4/5 MCC + 6/7 CBBN in the ER for 12/16/12 team fields in cases where all teams cannot be included in the qualifier).

p.s., here is the hypothetical XC District Meet merge from last year using the new realignment ...

New 4A Top-20 Boys:

1. 51 - Kamiakin - 4A-8 #1/2.5 - Qualify
2. 102 - Camas - 4A SW #1/7 - Qualify
3. 132 - Lewis and Clark - 4A-8 #2/2.5 - Qualify
4. 160 - Central Valley - 4A-8 #3/2.5 - ????? (would only qualify every other year)
5. 185 - Tahoma - 4A SW #2/7 - Qualify
6. 213 - Henry Jackson - 4A-1 #1/1.5 - Qualify
7. 259 - Gonzaga Prep - 4A-8 #4/2.5 - DNQ
8. 269 - Newport (Bellevue) - 4A-2 #1/3 - Qualify
9. 269 - Olympia - 4A SW #3/7 - Qualify
10. 283 - Puyallup - 4A SW #4/7 - Qualify
11. 316 - Eisenhower - 4A-6 #1/2 - Qualify
12. 318 - Curtis - 4A SW #5/7 - Qualify
13. 321 - Mt Si - 4A-2 #2/3 - Qualify
14. 323 - Woodinville - 4A-2 #3/3 - Qualify
15. 328 - Kamiak - 4A-1 #2/1.5 - ????? (would only qualify every other year)
16. 338 - West Valley (Yakima) - 4A-6 #2/2 - Qualify
17. 340 - Sumner - 4A SW #6/7 - Qualify
18. 393 - Eastlake - 4A-2 #4/3 - DNQ
19. 404 - Issaquah - 4A-2 #5/3 - DNQ
20. 405 - Lake Stevens - 4A-1 #3/1.5 - DNQ

On the boys side, potentially missing #4 Central Valley last year as well as certainly missing #7 Gonzaga Prep. Luckily, those are the only Top-17 that would be missing (either Kamiak and Central Valley would qualify and the other left home), though I'm not sure that makes up for a potential podium finisher sitting it out. The last qualifier would be #22 Rogers (Puyallup) out of the Southwest.

Notable that #1 Kamiakin is moving up from 3A.

New 4A Top-20 Girls:

1. 111 - Camas - 4A SW #1/7 - Qualify
2. 135 - Redmond - 4A-2 #1/3 - Qualify
3. 148 - Lewis and Clark - 4A-8 #1/2.5 - Qualify
4. 166 - Richland - 4A-8 #2/2.5 - Qualify
5. 174 - Tahoma - 4A SW #2/7 - Qualify
6. 204 - Bellarmine Prep - 4A SW #3/7 - Qualify
7. 235 - Central Valley - 4A-8 #3/2.5 - ????
8. 252 - Glacier Peak - 4A-1 #1/1.5 - Qualify
9. 266 - Eastlake - 4A-2 #2/3 - Qualify
10. 295 - Lake Stevens - 4A-1 #2/1.5 - ????
11. 306 - Emerald Ridge - 4A SW #4/7 - Qualify
12. 313 - Hanford - 4A-8 #4/2.5 - DNQ
13. 326 - Bothell - 4A-2 #3/3 - Qualify
14. 331 - Kamiakin - 4A-8 #5/2.5 - DNQ
15. 332 - Eisenhower - 4A-6 #1/2 - Qualify
16. 358 - Issaquah - 4A-2 #4/3 - DNQ
17. 367 - Newport (Bellevue) - 4A-2 #5/3 - DNQ
18. 376 - Henry Jackson - 4A-1 #3/1.5 - DNQ
19. 385 - South Kitsap - 4A SW #5/7 - Qualify
20. 417 - Wenatchee - 4A-6 #2/2 - Qualify

Just like with the boys, Central Valley is the first one that might not qualify - but this time at least they aren't a Top-5 team! #7 Central Valley and #10 Lake Stevens would be splitting a spot, so one of them would be sitting at home one year and the other the next. That's a Top-10 team missing from the field, but it could be worse... #12 Hanford and #14 Kamiakin from the GSL/MCC meet wouldn't qualify, nor would #16 Issaquah and #17 Newport (Bellevue) from KingCo or #18 Henry Jackson from WESCO. The two Southwest teams that didn't make the Top-20 cut here but would qualify are #22 Skyview and #26 Rogers (Puyallup).

Notable that #14 Kamiakin is moving up from 3A.

Although I obviously used different ratings for this merge compared to the state preview (this was done by looking at how every runner ran at state vs. how they did at districts, while the state preview was purely based on my estimate on how the meets would compare), you can check this post to see how it compared to last year.

WIAA Review: 2A Scholastic Cup and Realignment

Here's a series of posts looking at how the (athletic portion of the) 4-year WIAA Scholastic Cup turned out (unfortunately, without the spring sports due to COVID-19 which hurts strong track/baseball/softball programs like Tumwater) and where each team is headed in terms of realignment for the next cycle.

Side note: Adjusted Enrollment (using the WIAA's adjustment for socio-economic conditions) has a 20.1% stronger correlation to Athletic Program achievement within 2A than total Enrollment would have had.

Average Points - School - Class-District (League)

Schools in bold have OPTED UP to their 2020 classification.

Schools in red are dropping from 2A to 1A

School in blue are moving up from 2A to 3A

1. 597.5 - Liberty (Issaquah) - 3A-2 (KingCo)
2. 488.8 - Sehome - 2A-1 (NWC)
3. 445.5 - Columbia River - 2A-4 (GSHL)
4. 437.8 - Selah - 2A-5 (CWAC)
5. 437.5 - North Kitsap - 2A-3 (Olympic)
6. 377.5 - Ellensburg - 2A-5 (CWAC)
7. 335.0 - White River - 2A-3 (SPSL)
8. 310.0 - Bellingham - 2A-1 (NWC)
9. 308.5 - W.F. West - 2A-4 (EvCo)
10. 303.8 - Ridgefield - 2A-4 (GSHL)
11. 301.3 - Lynden - 2A-1 (NWC)
12. 278.8 - Tumwater - 2A-4 (EvCo)
13. 270.0 - Fife - 2A-3 (SPSL)
14. 262.5 - Pullman - 2A-8 (GSL)
15. 246.3 - Port Angeles - 2A-3 (Olympic)
16. 242.5 - Olympic - 2A-3 (Olympic)
17. 240.0 - Anacortes - 2A-1 (NWC)
18. 233.5 - Sammamish - 2A-2 (KingCo)
19. 225.5 - Burlington-Edison - 2A-1 (NWC)
20. 221.8 - Sequim - 2A-3 (Olympic)
21. 217.0 - Steilacoom - 2A-3 (SPSL)
22. 207.5 - Archbishop Murphy - 2A-1 (WESCO)
23. 188.5 - Cheney - 3A-8 (GSL)
24. 173.8 - West Valley (Spokane) - 2A-8 (GSL)
25. 173.0 - Washougal - 2A-4 (GSHL)
26. 171.3 - Black Hills - 2A-4 (EvCo)
27. 139.8 - Toppenish - 1A-5 (SCAC)
28. 139.3 - Woodland - 2A-4 (GSHL)
29. 130.0 - Mark Morris - 2A-4 (GSHL)
30. 128.8 - Lindbergh - 2A-2 (KingCo)
31. 125.0 - Hockinson - 2A-4 (GSHL)
32. 121.3 - Kingston - 2A-3 (Olympic)
33. 121.3 - East Valley (Yakima) - 2A-5 (CWAC)
34. 112.5 - East Valley (Spokane) - 2A-8 (GSL)
35. 108.0 - Clarkston - 2A-8 (GSL)
36. 105.0 - Othello - 2A-5 (CWAC)
37. 101.3 - Ephrata - 2A-5 (CWAC)
38. 101.3 - Franklin Pierce - 2A-3 (SPSL)
39.  97.5 - Orting - 2A-3 (SPSL)
40.  90.0 - Cedarcrest - 2A-1 (WESCO)
41.  87.5 - Highline - 2A-2 (KingCo)
42.  79.3 - Mountlake Terrace - 3A-1 (WESCO)
43.  65.5 - Renton - 2A-2 (KingCo)
44.  62.5 - R.A. Long - 2A-4 (GSHL)
45.  61.8 - Sedro-Woolley - 2A-1 (NWC)
46.  60.0 - Washington - 2A-3 (SPSL)
47.  58.8 - Prosser - 2A-5 (CWAC)
48.  57.5 - Foster - 2A-2 (KingCo)
49.  57.5 - Aberdeen - 2A-4 (EvCo)
50.  52.8 - River Ridge - 3A-3 (SSL)
51.  47.5 - Foss - 2A-3 (SPSL)
52.  45.0 - Wapato - 1A-5 (SCAC)
53.  43.8 - Eatonville - 1A-4 (EvCo)
54.  40.0 - Centralia - 2A-4 (EvCo)
55.  40.0 - Lakewood - 2A-1 (NWC)
56.  28.5 - Bremerton - 2A-3 (Olympic)
57.  27.5 - Quincy - 1A-6 (CTL)
58.  22.5 - Blaine - 1A-1 (NWC)
59.  20.0 - Grandview - 2A-5 (CWAC)
60.  17.5 - North Mason - 2A-3 (Olympic)
61.  15.0 - Clover Park - 2A-3 (SPSL)
62.   5.0 - Tyee - 2A-2 (KingCo)
63.   2.5 - Granite Falls - 1A-1 (NWC)
64.   0.0 - Evergreen (Seattle) - 2A-2 (KingCo)
65.   0.0 - Rochester - 2A-4 (EvCo)

... 5 of the 6 schools dropping to 1A were in the bottom 14, with 4 due to the socio-economic adjustment plus another that successfully petitioned down (and also is effected by the socio-economic adjustment). The sixth school that is dropping to 1A, Toppenish, is also due to the adjustment factor but they were a mid-pack program sitting at #27. Of the 4 teams moving up to 3A, two were among the top 25 of the classification (#1 Liberty-Issaquah and #23 Cheney).

As a whole, the districts in the Eastern half of the state were hit pretty hard. All but one of the teams dropping were in the CWAC, and one of the four teams moving up was from the GNL. However, reinforcements are arriving in the form of two 3A GSL teams dropping down to join the fold: Shadle Park and Rogers (Spokane). As the league formerly known as the GNL (now merging with the GSL) is finally going to have parity in numbers with the CWAC, hopefully that means no more unfair state qualification process in the Eastern Regional (unless they decline to combine for state qualification purposes, as the CWAC would still get 2 spots while the GSL could end up with anywhere from 1 to 1.5 to 2 depending on whether D2 qualifies on it's own or combines with D1 or D3).

One important point to mention is exemplified here ... at the 2A level, in most years and most sports it is the top 26 programs that are pretty dominant. In specific years or specific sports, there are other programs that rise towards the top, but for all-around athletic excellence 2A has a fairly clear delineation (#26 Black Hills averaged 171.25 points over the last 4 years, while #27 Toppenish at 139.75 drops to 1A and #28 Woodland averaged 139.25 points -- or nearly a quarter less). This is predictable given the size range of the schools: 38 of the 65 schools in 2A over the last 4 years had (adjusted) enrollments over 610 while 27 were under 595; 24 of the top 26 teams were from the 38 largest schools and only 2 of the smallest 27 cracked through (private school Archbishop Murphy and Anacortes which has an enrollment of 573). No other classification had such a clearly defined disparity: 2A's split was more than a 20% difference (Black Hills scored 22.5% more points than Toppenish), while 3A's biggest split is 14.8% between #40 Lakes and #41 Squalicum, and 4A's biggest split is 14.6% between #46 Inglemoor and #47 North Creek. Enrollment doesn't remotely describe the 4A split (10 of the 20 schools smaller than Inglemoor outscored them), nor does it in 3A (11 of the 27 schools smaller than Lakes outscored them).

The reason for this discrepancy should be obvious: that's roughly the point at which programs can consistently field not only competitive varsity programs but also JV and C-squad programs in most if not all sports with the realistic hopes of those JV and C-squads being remotely competitive on any consistent basis (note: smaller schools can also sometimes accomplish this with good coaching, especially in sports like XC, but it becomes much harder to do it across all sports and have good coaches in all sports to get to that point simply because it inevitably becomes a numbers game).

Not only that competitive JV+C-Squad factor, but given how few schools tend to be in that 580-640 range, it makes it the perfect cut-off for a classification - just as it used to be when there were only 5 classifications in Washington... and, by the way, it is possible to get pretty reasonable sized classifications while dropping from 6 back to 5 (or even 4).

WIAA Review: 3A Scholastic Cup and Realignment

Here's a series of posts looking at how the (athletic portion of the) 4-year WIAA Scholastic Cup turned out (unfortunately, without the spring sports due to COVID-19 which hurts strong track/baseball/softball programs like Holy Names Academy) and where each team is headed in terms of realignment for the next cycle.

Side note: Adjusted Enrollment (using the WIAA's adjustment for socio-economic conditions) has a 11.6% stronger correlation to Athletic Program achievement within 3A than total Enrollment would have had.

Average Points - School - Class-District (League)

Schools in bold have OPTED UP to their 2020 classification.

Schools in red are dropping from 3A to 2A

School in blue are moving up from 3A to 4A

1. 560.0 - Holy Names Academy - 3A-2 (Metro) -- score doubled to reflect All-Girls status
2. 533.0 - Kamiakin - 4A-8 (MCC)
3. 505.0 - O'Dea - 3A-2 (Metro) -- score doubled to reflect All-Boys status
4. 442.5 - Mount Spokane - 3A-8 (GSL)
5. 431.5 - Bellevue - 3A-2 (KingCo)
6. 431.0 - Gig Harbor - 3A-3 (SSL)
7. 420.0 - Mercer Island - 3A-2 (KingCo)
8. 408.8 - Lakeside (Seattle) - 3A-2 (Metro)
9. 355.0 - Garfield - 3A-2 (Metro)
   335.0 - Redmond - 4A-2 (KingCo) -- already moved to 4A in 2018
10. 310.0 - Lake Washington - 3A-2 (KingCo)
11. 288.8 - Edmonds-Woodway - 3A-1 (WESCO)
12. 267.5 - Interlake - 3A-2 (KingCo)
13. 256.3 - Snohomish - 3A-1 (WESCO)
14. 237.5 - Seattle Prep - 3A-2 (Metro)
15. 228.8 - Eastside Catholic - 3A-2 (Metro)
16. 222.8 - Capital - 3A-3 (SSL)
17. 222.5 - North Central - 3A-8 (GSL)
18. 221.3 - Prairie - 3A-4 (GSHL)
19. 212.5 - Roosevelt - 3A-2 (Metro)
20. 191.8 - Bainbridge - 3A-2 (Metro)
21. 189.8 - Yelm - 3A-3 (SSL)
22. 186.3 - Central Kitsap - 3A-3 (SSL)
23. 176.8 - Stadium - 3A-3 (PCL)
24. 175.5 - Peninsula - 3A-3 (SSL)
25. 172.8 - Lincoln (Tacoma) - 3A-3 (PCL)
26. 167.0 - Mountain View - 3A-4 (GSHL)
27. 165.0 - Arlington - 3A-1 (WESCO)
28. 163.8 - Shorecrest - 3A-1 (WESCO)
29. 163.8 - Woodrow Wilson - 3A-3 (PCL)
30. 162.5 - Kelso - 3A-4 (GSHL)
31. 156.3 - Bonney Lake - 3A-3 (PCL)
32. 153.8 - Bishop Blanchet - 3A-2 (Metro)
33. 143.8 - Bethel - 4A-3 (SPSL)
34. 137.5 - Kennewick - 3A-8 (MCC)
35. 133.8 - Southridge - 3A-8 (MCC)
36. 122.5 - Stanwood - 3A-1 (WESCO)
37. 113.8 - Evergreen (Vancouver) - 3A-4 (GSHL)
38. 113.0 - Ballard - 3A-2 (Metro)
39. 110.0 - Timberline - 3A-3 (SSL)
40. 106.3 - Lakes - 3A-3 (PCL)
41.  92.5 - Squalicum - 2A-1 (NWC)
42.  91.3 - Shorewood - 3A-1 (WESCO)
43.  89.8 - West Seattle - 3A-2 (Metro)
44.  87.5 - Ferndale - 3A-1 (NWC)
45.  86.3 - Everett - 3A-1 (WESCO)
46.  83.8 - Rainier Beach - 3A-2 (Metro)
47.  75.0 - North Thurston - 3A-3 (SSL)
48.  72.5 - Hermiston (OR) - 3A-8 (MCC) -- competed in Oregon until 2018
49.  66.0 - Lynnwood - 3A-1 (WESCO)
50.  63.8 - Marysville Pilchuck - 3A-1 (WESCO)
51.  61.8 - Ingraham - 3A-2 (Metro)
52.  57.5 - Shadle Park - 2A-8 (GSL)
53.  56.3 - Meadowdale - 3A-1 (WESCO)
54.  50.0 - Shelton - 2A-4 (EvCo)
55.  50.0 - Hudson's Bay - 2A-4 (GSHL)
56.  48.0 - Nathan Hale - 3A-2 (Metro)
57.  36.3 - Juanita - 3A-2 (KingCo)
58.  26.5 - Oak Harbor - 3A-1 (NWC)
59.  25.5 - Spanaway Lake - 3A-3 (PCL)
60.  22.5 - Marysville Getchell - 3A-1 (WESCO)
61.  17.5 - Rogers (Spokane) - 2A-8 (GSL)
62.  11.3 - Chief Sealth - 3A-2 (Metro)
63.  10.0 - Cleveland - 3A-2 (Metro)
64.  10.0 - Mount Tahoma - 3A-3 (PCL)
65.   7.5 - Franklin - 3A-2 (Metro)
66.   3.0 - Fort Vancouver - 2A-4 (GSHL)
67.   0.0 - Lincoln (Seattle) - 3A-2 (Metro) -- opened up this year

... all 6 schools dropping to 2A were outside the Top-40 of the classification, and both schools moving up to 4A were in the top half (#2 Kamiakin and #33 Bethel). 9 of the last 20 schools remaining in 3A are opting up including 7 members of the Metro League.

Opting-Up Summary:

The Metro League continues to opt-up as a group to stay a single-class league. Of the league's 18 schools, 12 (or 13 if you go by the WIAA count, although they apparently aren't factoring in O'Dea and Holy Names as single-gender schools in their spreadsheet) are opting-up from their assigned 1A or 2A classifications.

Outside of the Metro League, there are only a handful of schools opting up: Lincoln (Tacoma) is the #25 program listed above, Marysville-Pilchuck is only #50/67 but they are remaining with their cross-town rival of Marysville-Getchell and the closer WESCO schools, and Mount Tahoma is opting up for... some reason? even though their fellow struggling program in Tacoma, Henry Foss, already moved down to 2A last cycle and their 2A league wouldn't make any less sense geographically.

It will be interesting to watch this unfold in future cycles, because it seems somewhat likely that 4A drops below the threshold to maintain a 16-team state tournament as early as next cycle and 3A could very well end up with the schools necessary to have a 24-team state tournament, mostly due to the WIAA passing two amendments at the same time which effected how classifications are determined and probably didn't do enough to ensure the combination of amendments will have the sustainable desired effect (refer to the 4A post for a slightly further explanation).

WIAA Review: 4A Scholastic Cup and Realignment

Here's a series of posts looking at how the (athletic portion of the) 4-year WIAA Scholastic Cup turned out (unfortunately, without the spring sports due to COVID-19 which hurts strong track/baseball/softball programs like Federal Way) and where each team is headed in terms of realignment for the next cycle.

Side note: Adjusted Enrollment (using the WIAA's adjustment for socio-economic conditions) has a 14.4% stronger correlation to Athletic Program achievement within 4A than total Enrollment would have had.

Average Points - School - Class-District (League)

Schools in bold have OPTED UP to their 2020 classification.

Schools in red are dropping from 4A to 3A (and in one case, 2A).

1. 646.3 - Camas - 4A-4 (GSHL)
2. 435.8 - Tahoma - 4A-3 (NPSL)
3. 411.3 - Issaquah - 4A-2 (KingCo)
4. 350.0 - Skyline - 4A-2 (KingCo)
5. 341.3 - Central Valley - 4A-8 (GSL)
6. 316.3 - Union - 4A-4 (GSHL)
7. 310.5 - Curtis - 4A-3 (SPSL)
8. 301.3 - Puyallup - 4A-3 (SPSL)
9. 299.3 - Henry Jackson - 4A-1 (WESCO)
10. 296.8 - Bellarmine Prep - 4A-3 (SPSL)
11. 276.5 - Newport (Bellevue) - 4A-2 (KingCo)
12. 263.8 - Lake Stevens - 4A-1 (WESCO)
13. 258.8 - Lewis & Clark - 4A-8 (GSL)
14. 258.8 - Glacier Peak - 4A-1 (WESCO)
15. 249.8 - Mead - 3A-8 (GSL)
16. 245.0 - Wenatchee - 4A-6 (CBBN)
17. 245.0 - Redmond - 4A-2 (KingCo)
18. 240.5 - Richland - 4A-8 (MCC)
19. 237.5 - Skyview - 4A-4 (GSHL)
20. 234.3 - Kentwood - 4A-3 (NPSL)
21. 231.3 - Woodinville - 4A-2 (KingCo)
22. 229.3 - Kamiak - 4A-1 (WESCO)
23. 208.8 - Chiawana - 4A-8 (MCC)
24. 206.3 - Gonzaga Prep - 4A-8 (GSL)
25. 200.0 - Sumner - 4A-3 (NPSL)
26. 187.3 - Eastlake - 4A-2 (KingCo)
27. 174.3 - Auburn Riverside - 3A-3 (NPSL)
28. 169.5 - Moses Lake - 4A-6 (CBBN)
29. 167.0 - Rogers (Puyallup) - 4A-3 (SPSL)
30. 162.5 - Hanford - 4A-8 (MCC)
31. 150.5 - Federal Way - 4A-3 (NPSL)
32. 148.3 - Kentridge - 4A-3 (NPSL)
33. 146.3 - South Kitsap - 4A-3 (SPSL)
34. 146.3 - Olympia - 4A-3 (SPSL)
35. 143.0 - Eastmont - 4A-6 (CBBN)
36. 139.3 - Mount Si - 4A-2 (KingCo)
37. 133.8 - West Valley (Yakima) - 4A-6 (CBBN)
38. 131.8 - Pasco - 4A-8 (MCC)
39. 125.5 - Sunnyside - 4A-6 (CBBN)
40. 124.0 - Bothell - 4A-2 (KingCo)
41. 111.0 - Emerald Ridge - 4A-3 (SPSL)
42. 102.5 - Thomas Jefferson - 3A-3 (NPSL)
43. 100.3 - Walla Walla - 3A-8 (GSL)
44.  99.3 - Todd Beamer - 3A-3 (NPSL)
45.  97.5 - Kennedy Catholic - 4A-3 (NPSL)
46.  96.3 - Inglemoor - 4A-2 (KingCo)
47.  84.0 - North Creek - 4A-2 (KingCo)
48.  80.5 - Kentlake - 3A-3 (NPSL)
49.  77.5 - Auburn Mountainview - 3A-3 (NPSL)
50.  77.3 - Graham-Kapowsin - 4A-3 (SPSL)
51.  74.8 - Monroe - 3A-1 (WESCO)
52.  72.5 - Eisenhower - 4A-6 (CBBN)
53.  65.5 - Decatur - 4A-3 (NPSL)
54.  63.0 - Joel Ferris - 3A-8 (GSL)
55.  58.8 - Battle Ground - 4A-4 (GSHL)
56.  58.5 - Enumclaw - 2A-3 (SPSL)
57.  53.0 - University - 3A-8 (GSL)
58.  50.5 - A.C. Davis - 4A-6 (CBBN)
59.  50.5 - Hazen - 3A-2 (KingCo)
60.  38.8 - Mount Vernon - 3A-1 (NWC)
61.  37.5 - Mount Rainier - 4A-3 (NPSL)
62.  28.0 - Cascade (Everett) - 3A-1 (WESCO)
63.  15.0 - Mariner - 4A-1 (WESCO)
64.  10.0 - Kent Meridian - 4A-3 (NPSL)
65.   7.5 - Auburn - 3A-3 (NPSL)
66.   0.0 - Heritage - 3A-4 (GSHL)

... in total, 39 of the top 41 schools are remaining in 4A, while 15 of the bottom 25 schools are dropping to a different classification (and as you will see in the next post, 2 teams are moving up from 3A).

Opting-Up Summary:

It is my understanding that the Yakima-area CBBN schools decided to stay as a single-class league, and with A.C. Davis just barely missing out on the 3A/4A Cut-off (1300 was the cut-off, and their enrollment came in at 1314), that meant staying in 4A rather than dropping to 3A (which would have left Moses Lake and Wenatchee as the lone 4A members, assuming Eastmont would follow the rest of the league rather than their neighbor school in Wenatchee).

The NPSL became a split-class league, which makes me wonder about some of the decisions those schools remaining in 4A: Mount Rainier opted to stay in 4A despite having the sixth worst score in the classification, and Decatur opted to stay in 4A despite not being particularly competitive and having the 14th worst score. Kennedy Catholic makes some sense: a strong football program, and their athletics programs as a whole averaging nearly 100 points per year, means while they aren't that competitive as a whole (#45/66 in the classification over the last 4 years) but aren't so out of their depth that it is unreasonable (about halfway between the middle third and lower third of schools in the classification). Federal Way and Sumner also makes sense as middle-of-the-pack schools as it stands.

Northshore School District remaining intact as part of the 4A KingCo also makes sense, even though all 4 schools (Bothell, Inglemoor, North Creek, Woodinville) had to opt-up to do so. Woodinville is a strong program, and although North Creek and Inglemoor are in the bottom third of the classification that is arguably due in part to North Creek opening up only 3 years ago (and they are both close to the Top 45). Plus, geographically speaking it seems like 4A KingCo is a better fit than 3A KingCo for those schools.

It will be interesting to watch this unfold in future cycles, because it seems somewhat likely that 4A drops below the required 51 schools to maintain a 16-team state tournament as early as next cycle... the 1300 enrollment cut-off made sense prior to the socio-economic adjustment factor (which is also a good thing), but since both amendments passed in 2019 they kind of messed things up together... it probably would have been more sustainable if the 3A/4A Cut-off was 1200 or 1250 instead of 1300 due to that amendment: 1250 would have meant 10 more schools in 4A leaving 61 in 4A and 69 in 3A, while a cut-off at 1200 would have meant 18 more schools in 4A leaving 69 in 4A and 61 in 3A. With the opening of a new school in the Central Valley school district in 2021, that will probably drop Central Valley to 3A along with the new school, meaning that it will be 50 in 4A and 81 in 3A before any additional changes take place, and if Davis dips below the cut-off that means most of the CBBN would drop as well, leaving 4A potentially under 45 schools in the entire classification and 3A approaching 90.

Girls NXN Nationals Results/Ratings

Best girls individual field ever led to what might have been the best race ever? I thought the 2013 NXN race between Alexa Efraimson, Elise Cranny and Sarah Baxter battle was incredible and be hard to overtake, but with the tight finish today I think this one was even better. Katelynn Tuohy found her match in Sydney Thorvaldson and Taylor Ewert, but held on despite late charges as all three finished within less than a second. I don't know if that is the biggest story, or if the Saratoga Springs NY girls huge performance should take the cake today. Saratoga won their first team title since the very first NTN/NXN race in 2004, and did so by a good margin against a tremendous field.

As the girls race ran second today, the course was chewed up and notably more muddy than in the boys race as rain continued to come down.

Ratings estimate: 200.0 = 15:46

(edit: added estimated equivalent 3200m times for better comparison)

Girls Teams:

1. 78 - KINETIC - 92:30.1 - NXR New York Runner-up - 148.0
2. 160 - CENTRAL OREGON - 94:09.2 - NXR Northwest Champion - 141.7
3. 171 - NIWOT - 94:30.9 - NXR Southwest Third Place - 140.3
4. 188 - LONE PEAK - 95:10.2 - NXR Southwest Champion - 137.8
5. 201 - CLOVIS - 94:56.4 - California D1 Champion - 138.7
6. 204 - NORTH SPOKANE - 95:28.9 - NXR Northwest Runner-up - 136.6
7. 206 - MANLIUS - 94:37.9 - NXR New York Champion - 139.9
8. 242 - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 96:10.1 - NXR Southwest Runner-up - 134.0
9. 266 - TEMECULA - 96:39.2 - California D1 Runner-up - 132.2
10. 310 - PURCELLVILLE - 97:16.4 - NXR Southeast Champion - 129.8
11. 320 - PORTLAND - 97:26.4 - NXR Northwest Third Place - 129.2
12. 323 - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 97:06.7 - NXR Midwest Champion - 130.4
13. 327 - BEAVERCREEK - 96:57.7 - NXR Midwest Runner-up - 131.0
14. 333 - EDINA - 97:25.3 - NXR Heartland Champion - 129.3
15. 353 - FT. LAUDERDALE - 98:12.1 - NXR Southeast Runner-up - 126.3
16. 354 - MUSKEGO - 97:58.0 - NXR Heartland Runner-up - 127.2
17. 358 - NEWBURY PARK - 97:58.2 - California D2 Champion - 127.2
18. 359 - FOREST PARK - 97:25.0 - NXR Northwest Fourth Place - 129.3
19. 384 - HUNTERDON - 98:34.7 - NXR Northeast Champion - 124.9
20. 390 - RIDGEWOOD - 98:19.8 - NXR Northeast Runner-up - 125.8
21. 426 - CARROLL - 98:58.4 - NXR South Runner-up - 123.4
22. 483 - PROSPER - 99:58.0 - NXR South Champion - 119.6

Girls Individuals:

1. 170.7 - 17:18.4 - KATELYN TUOHY - NEW YORK - 9:52
2. 170.5 - 17:19.1 - TAYLOR EWERT - BEAVERCREEK - 9:53
3. 170.4 - 17:19.4 - SYDNEY THORVALDSON - NORTHWEST - 9:53
4. 167.5 - 17:28.4 - CLAIRE WALTERS - MANLIUS - 9:58
5. 165.1 - 17:35.9 - MARLEE STARLIPER - NORTHEAST - 10:02
6. 165.0 - 17:36.4 - CARLIE DOROSTKAR - CALIFORNIA - 10:03
7. 164.3 - 17:38.6 - BROOKE RAUBER - NEW YORK - 10:04
8. 163.7 - 17:40.5 - CHARLOTTE BEDNAR - NORTHEAST - 10:05
9. 162.7 - 17:43.7 - KATE PETERS - FOREST PARK - 10:07
10. 160.6 - 17:50.2 - FIFI MAX - CENTRAL OREGON - 10:11
11. 160.3 - 17:51.3 - ERIN STRZELECKI - MIDWEST - 10:11
12. 158.7 - 17:56.2 - CORIE SMITH - CLOVIS - 10:14
13. 158.6 - 17:56.5 - JENNA SCHULZ - NEW YORK - 10:14
14. 158.0 - 17:58.3 - ELLA KURTO - KINETIC - 10:15
15. 157.9 - 17:58.7 - SAMREE DISHON - NIWOT - 10:15
16. 157.9 - 17:58.8 - ANNALYSSA CRAIN - MIDWEST - 10:15
17. 157.0 - 18:01.5 - TATUM DAVID - MIDWEST - 10:17
18. 156.7 - 18:02.4 - JULIA DAVID-SMITH - NORTHWEST - 10:17
19. 156.7 - 18:02.6 - SARAH CONNELLY - NEW YORK - 10:18
20. 156.1 - 18:04.4 - KELSEY HARRINGTON - SOUTHEAST - 10:19
21. 155.3 - 18:07.0 - MEGHAN FORD - HEARTLAND - 10:20
22. 155.0 - 18:07.9 - MATTIE GEDDES - NORTHWEST - 10:21
23. 154.7 - 18:08.8 - BRYNN BROWN - SOUTH - 10:21
24. 154.6 - 18:09.1 - SASHA NEGLIA - SOUTHEAST - 10:21
25. 152.1 - 18:16.9 - SAMANTHA BLAIR - SOUTHWEST - 10:26
26. 152.1 - 18:17.2 - ELIZA ARRINGTON - LONE PEAK - 10:26
27. 151.9 - 18:17.8 - LAUREN PING - SOUTHWEST - 10:26
28. 151.8 - 18:18.1 - ALEX KLOS - CALIFORNIA - 10:26
29. 151.3 - 18:19.5 - ANA WEAVER - HEARTLAND - 10:27
30. 150.2 - 18:23.0 - KORA MALECEK - HEARTLAND - 10:29
31. 149.8 - 18:24.2 - RILEY STEWART - SOUTHWEST - 10:30
32. 149.7 - 18:24.6 - LEA HATCHER - SOUTHEAST - 10:30
33. 149.6 - 18:24.9 - SAVANNAH SCRIVEN - CALIFORNIA - 10:30
34. 149.5 - 18:25.2 - MARIE HOSTETLER - HEARTLAND - 10:30
35. 149.2 - 18:26.1 - McKINLEY WHEELER - KINETIC - 10:31
36. 149.0 - 18:26.8 - MAGGIE GAMBOA - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 10:31
37. 148.6 - 18:28.0 - COLLEEN STEGMANN - SOUTH - 10:32
38. 148.6 - 18:28.0 - MACKENZIE HART - KINETIC - 10:32
39. 148.6 - 18:28.2 - SHERIDAN WHEELER - KINETIC - 10:32
40. 147.2 - 18:32.6 - AVERY CLOVER - SOUTH - 10:35
41. 147.1 - 18:32.9 - ZOE DUFFUS - MIDWEST - 10:35
42. 146.4 - 18:34.9 - TEAGHAN KNOX - CENTRAL OREGON - 10:36
43. 146.3 - 18:35.2 - JENNA MULHERN - NORTHEAST - 10:36
44. 145.9 - 18:36.6 - CHLOE GONZALEZ - HUNTERDON - 10:37
45. 144.3 - 18:41.7 - MEG MADISON - NORTHEAST - 10:40
46. 144.0 - 18:42.7 - TSION YARED - FT. LAUDERDALE - 10:40
47. 143.7 - 18:43.4 - LANIE SZUCH - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 10:41
48. 143.5 - 18:44.2 - ATHENA YOUNG - SOUTHEAST - 10:41
49. 143.4 - 18:44.4 - ERINN HILL - NORTH SPOKANE - 10:41
50. 143.1 - 18:45.3 - KATELYNNE HART - MIDWEST - 10:42
51. 143.1 - 18:45.4 - ANNA FENSKE - HEARTLAND - 10:42
52. 142.6 - 18:47.0 - PHOEBE WHITE - MANLIUS - 10:43
53. 142.1 - 18:48.5 - REAGAN GARDNER - LONE PEAK - 10:44
54. 142.1 - 18:48.7 - SYDNEY SUNDGREN - CLOVIS - 10:44
55. 142.1 - 18:48.7 - TAYLOR WHITFIELD - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 10:44
56. 141.9 - 18:49.1 - EVA JESS - SOUTH - 10:44
57. 141.8 - 18:49.5 - KELLI GAFFNEY - TEMECULA - 10:44
58. 141.7 - 18:49.7 - AVA GORDON - PURCELLVILLE - 10:44
59. 141.5 - 18:50.6 - SAVANNAH ROARK - BEAVERCREEK - 10:45
60. 141.1 - 18:51.6 - LUCCA FULKERSON - NIWOT - 10:46
61. 141.1 - 18:51.7 - TAYLOR JAMES - NIWOT - 10:46
62. 141.1 - 18:51.8 - KYLIE HARTNETT - NORTHWEST - 10:46
63. 140.9 - 18:52.5 - ALLIE JANKE - NORTH SPOKANE - 10:46
64. 140.7 - 18:52.9 - REESE FAHYS - NORTHEAST - 10:46
65. 140.7 - 18:53.1 - HARPER MCCLAIN - CALIFORNIA - 10:46
66. 140.1 - 18:55.0 - HANNAH KAERCHER - MANLIUS - 10:48
67. 140.0 - 18:55.1 - MARIE TAYLOR - NORTH SPOKANE - 10:48
68. 139.9 - 18:55.4 - AMELU RUFF - NORTH SPOKANE - 10:48
69. 139.7 - 18:56.2 - CAMRYN WENNERSTEN - RIDGEWOOD - 10:48
70. 139.4 - 18:57.0 - RILEY CHAMBERLAIN - CALIFORNIA - 10:49
71. 139.1 - 18:58.0 - CHLOE FOERSTER - PORTLAND - 10:49
72. 138.8 - 18:58.9 - JASPER FIEVET - CENTRAL OREGON - 10:50
73. 138.8 - 18:59.1 - JODIE PIERCE - BEAVERCREEK - 10:50
74. 138.4 - 19:00.2 - KATE SPERKA - MUSKEGO - 10:50
75. 138.2 - 19:00.8 - HANNAH MINIUTTI - SOUTHEAST - 10:51
76. 138.0 - 19:01.5 - MARY VELNER - EDINA - 10:51
77. 137.8 - 19:02.0 - HALEIGH MORALES - NEW YORK - 10:52
78. 137.4 - 19:03.4 - GRACE HUTCHISON - CLOVIS - 10:52
79. 137.1 - 19:04.2 - MAGGIE WAGNER - EDINA - 10:53
80. 136.7 - 19:05.7 - CAMERON MCCONNELL - SOUTHWEST - 10:54
81. 135.7 - 19:08.9 - AUBRIE NEX - TEMECULA - 10:55
82. 135.5 - 19:09.5 - EMILY BUSH - KINETIC - 10:56
83. 135.3 - 19:10.1 - AUBREY O'CONNELL - PROSPER - 10:56
84. 135.2 - 19:10.2 - HAILEY GOLMON - NEWBURY PARK - 10:56
85. 134.9 - 19:11.2 - SAM MCDONNELL - NEWBURY PARK - 10:57
86. 134.9 - 19:11.3 - KRIANNE MCBRIDE - SOUTH - 10:57
87. 134.6 - 19:12.2 - CAROLINE MENDYK - CLOVIS - 10:57
88. 134.5 - 19:12.5 - CARLEE HANSEN - SOUTHWEST - 10:58
89. 134.0 - 19:14.2 - ELIZA MASON - LONE PEAK - 10:58
90. 133.5 - 19:15.6 - BARRETT JUSTEMA - CENTRAL OREGON - 10:59
91. 133.4 - 19:16.0 - BROOKE WILSON - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 10:59
92. 133.2 - 19:16.6 - MAYA BELEZNAY - FT. LAUDERDALE - 11:00
93. 132.5 - 19:18.7 - BRITTANY HELM - MUSKEGO - 11:01
94. 132.1 - 19:20.0 - KENZIE MELDRUM - LONE PEAK - 11:02
95. 132.1 - 19:20.1 - RICKY FETTEROLF - PURCELLVILLE - 11:02
96. 132.1 - 19:20.2 - EVA KLINGBEIL - NIWOT - 11:02
97. 131.8 - 19:21.1 - MIA KANE - FOREST PARK - 11:02
98. 131.2 - 19:23.0 - ELISE ABBE - PURCELLVILLE - 11:03
99. 131.2 - 19:23.1 - SAGE BROOKS - NORTHWEST - 11:04
100. 130.6 - 19:24.8 - MAGDALYN HOFFMAN - HUNTERDON - 11:05
101. 130.5 - 19:25.0 - MOLLY GRANT - PORTLAND - 11:05
102. 130.2 - 19:26.1 - AISHLING FABIAN - TEMECULA - 11:05
103. 130.1 - 19:26.3 - DEBBIE LUCCHETTI - MANLIUS - 11:05
104. 129.9 - 19:27.1 - ALEXIS KEBBE - PORTLAND - 11:06
105. 129.9 - 19:27.1 - HEIDI NIELSON - SOUTH - 11:06
106. 129.6 - 19:27.9 - RACHEL HELM - MUSKEGO - 11:06
107. 129.4 - 19:28.7 - AMELIA PHILOFSKY - NIWOT - 11:07
108. 129.3 - 19:28.9 - JOELLE MCDONALD - NIWOT - 11:07
109. 129.2 - 19:29.2 - JENNA HOLLAND - CARROLL - 11:07
110. 129.1 - 19:29.6 - MAGGIE WILLIAMS - CENTRAL OREGON - 11:07
111. 129.0 - 19:29.8 - MAGGIE BENNETT - PORTLAND - 11:07
112. 128.9 - 19:30.2 - LUCY JENKS - NORTHEAST - 11:08
113. 128.9 - 19:30.3 - MONET WINGER - LONE PEAK - 11:08
114. 128.8 - 19:30.4 - EMILY FAULHABER - FT. LAUDERDALE - 11:08
115. 128.6 - 19:31.1 - LAUREN COSSACK - EDINA - 11:08
116. 128.2 - 19:32.4 - KAITLYNN WOLFE - SOUTHEAST - 11:09
117. 128.2 - 19:32.5 - FIONA HAWKINS - NEWBURY PARK - 11:09
118. 128.1 - 19:32.6 - AUDREY MENDRYS - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:09
119. 127.3 - 19:35.3 - KATHERINE MCELANEY - CARROLL - 11:11
120. 127.2 - 19:35.7 - OLIVIA SHATTUCK - RIDGEWOOD - 11:11
121. 126.9 - 19:36.6 - AUDREY DANG - TEMECULA - 11:11
122. 126.6 - 19:37.4 - SADIE GONZALES - PROSPER - 11:12
123. 126.4 - 19:38.1 - ARIANNA GRIFITHS - TEMECULA - 11:12
124. 126.0 - 19:39.3 - ISABELLA PROSCENO - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 11:13
125. 125.6 - 19:40.7 - CAMPBELL PETERSEN - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:14
126. 125.6 - 19:40.7 - MOLLY MORTON - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:14
127. 125.4 - 19:41.2 - SCARLET FETTEROLF - PURCELLVILLE - 11:14
128. 125.3 - 19:41.7 - KAYLIE COX - CARROLL - 11:14
129. 125.3 - 19:41.7 - ANNAMARIE TRETOLA - RIDGEWOOD - 11:14
130. 124.9 - 19:42.7 - ASHLEY JONES - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 11:15
131. 124.7 - 19:43.4 - CATHERINE MONGAN - KINETIC - 11:15
132. 124.6 - 19:43.9 - ISABEL HOMSI - FOREST PARK - 11:15
133. 124.4 - 19:44.5 - ADDISON SCHMIDT - HUNTERDON - 11:16
134. 124.3 - 19:44.7 - MAHDERE YARED - FT. LAUDERDALE - 11:16
135. 124.0 - 19:45.6 - MACY IYER - EDINA - 11:16
136. 123.9 - 19:45.9 - KATE DONALDSON - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:17
137. 122.1 - 19:51.8 - RILEY CASH - FOREST PARK - 11:20
138. 121.7 - 19:52.8 - MADDIE SHULTS - NIWOT - 11:21
139. 121.4 - 19:53.8 - STELLA SKOVBORG - CENTRAL OREGON - 11:21
140. 121.2 - 19:54.6 - TATUM FOREMAN - CARROLL - 11:22
141. 121.0 - 19:55.0 - SOPHIE GOLOBITSH - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:22
142. 120.8 - 19:55.6 - CLAIRE HAMLET - RIDGEWOOD - 11:22
143. 120.8 - 19:55.9 - MIA JAUREGUI - CLOVIS - 11:22
144. 120.1 - 19:57.8 - McKAYLA FELTON - MUSKEGO - 11:23
145. 120.0 - 19:58.2 - ALEX CARLSON - HUNTERDON - 11:24
146. 119.7 - 19:59.1 - ARCHANA MOHANDAS - NEWBURY PARK - 11:24
147. 119.6 - 19:59.6 - MORGAN HUTCHISON - CLOVIS - 11:24
148. 119.1 - 20:01.2 - GRACE KAERCHER - MANLIUS - 11:25
149. 119.0 - 20:01.5 - MIA HILL - NORTH SPOKANE - 11:25
150. 118.9 - 20:01.7 - DIVINE TORZA - TEMECULA - 11:26
151. 118.7 - 20:02.4 - ALLY TALLEY - PURCELLVILLE - 11:26
152. 118.5 - 20:02.9 - MORGAN RICHTER - EDINA - 11:26
153. 118.0 - 20:04.6 - TORI GAITAN - TEMECULA - 11:27
154. 117.8 - 20:05.2 - AILISH HAWKINS - NEWBURY PARK - 11:28
155. 117.8 - 20:05.2 - HANNAH ROUND - NEWBURY PARK - 11:28
156. 117.4 - 20:06.5 - NAYA WRENN - PORTLAND - 11:28
157. 117.0 - 20:07.8 - KATIE BYBEE - LONE PEAK - 11:29
158. 116.7 - 20:08.8 - GRETCHEN SLATTUM - NEWBURY PARK - 11:30
159. 116.6 - 20:09.0 - KYRA HOLLAND - PURCELLVILLE - 11:30
160. 116.4 - 20:09.7 - AMY MOREFIELD - SOUTH - 11:30
161. 116.1 - 20:10.6 - LILY WILLIAMS - RIDGEWOOD - 11:31
162. 116.1 - 20:10.6 - ANYA BELISLE - KINETIC - 11:31
163. 115.2 - 20:13.4 - SARA JOCHIMS - MUSKEGO - 11:32
164. 115.1 - 20:13.6 - CLAIRE WAGNER - EDINA - 11:32
165. 114.9 - 20:14.5 - CLAIRE COONEY - PORTLAND - 11:33
166. 114.7 - 20:15.0 - LUCY WESTLAKE - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:33
167. 114.2 - 20:16.6 - SARAH POLICANO - RIDGEWOOD - 11:34
168. 114.1 - 20:16.9 - KIRSTIN TOWLE - PROSPER - 11:34
169. 113.9 - 20:17.6 - ABIGAIL MCILVAIN - CARROLL - 11:35
170. 113.6 - 20:18.6 - KENDALL HOBBS - BEAVERCREEK - 11:35
171. 113.2 - 20:19.6 - REESE DRAGOVICH - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 11:36
172. 111.8 - 20:24.1 - EMILEY KERN - PROSPER - 11:38
173. 111.4 - 20:25.4 - NOELLE JUNIG - MUSKEGO - 11:39
174. 111.1 - 20:26.4 - ANI OXBOROUGH - MUSKEGO - 11:40
175. 110.1 - 20:29.5 - ALEXIS SVOBODA - PROSPER - 11:41
176. 109.6 - 20:31.2 - KAYLEE ELLIOTT - CLOVIS - 11:42
177. 108.8 - 20:33.6 - AMELIA AMACK - MANLIUS - 11:44
178. 106.0 - 20:42.5 - GRACE WILLIAMSON - CARROLL - 11:49
179. 105.3 - 20:44.5 - SOPHIE SMITH - FOREST PARK - 11:50
180. 104.9 - 20:45.8 - NATALIE JACK - PORTLAND - 11:51
181. 104.3 - 20:47.7 - MADDY DUGGLEBY - MANLIUS - 11:52
182. 103.4 - 20:50.6 - SOPHIA REICH - HUNTERDON - 11:54
183. 103.2 - 20:51.4 - TSU-QUIN-DA-RO ENYART - FOREST PARK - 11:54
184. 101.9 - 20:55.3 - ALICE ROBERTS - PURCELLVILLE - 11:56
185. 101.6 - 20:56.4 - KATE PARSONS - PROSPER - 11:57
186. 101.2 - 20:57.7 - SIERRA STOCKER - FT. LAUDERDALE - 11:58
187. 100.9 - 20:58.4 - ELLIE COOK - FOREST PARK - 11:58
188. 100.6 - 20:59.4 - BRI TEEGARDEN - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 11:59
189. 99.9 - 21:01.5 - KENDALL CARTER - NORTH SPOKANE - 12:00
190. 98.9 - 21:04.8 - IZZY MAX - CENTRAL OREGON - 12:02
191. 98.6 - 21:05.9 - ALEXA KARMIS - CARROLL - 12:02
192. 97.7 - 21:08.5 - SADIE SCHREINER - EDINA - 12:04
193. 96.4 - 21:12.7 - MADISON LEE - NORTH SPOKANE - 12:06
194. 92.5 - 21:25.0 - TATUM CASTILLO - PROSPER - 12:13
195. 91.5 - 21:28.2 - ALYSSA PANELLA - HUNTERDON - 12:15
196. 90.8 - 21:30.3 - GRACE DAILEY - BEAVERCREEK - 12:16
197. 75.2 - 22:19.5 - SAMI KEHLER - HUNTERDON - 12:44
198. 69.2 - 22:38.3 - LORRIE AXELROD - FT. LAUDERDALE - 12:55
199. 68.2 - 22:41.5 - AMANDA SCHWARTZ - FT. LAUDERDALE - 12:57
200. 66.0 - 22:48.6 - LUCIA RABOLLI - RIDGEWOOD - 13:01
201. 64.7 - 22:52.8 - MEGAN NOWE - BEAVERCREEK - 13:03

Boys NXN Nationals Results/Ratings

Newbury Park CA's Nico Young led from the gun in a VERY impressive showing today, and also led his team to victory! Also, the boys team race was just as outstanding as expected with all three pre-race favorites finishing on the podium and only 14 points separating them! Also a strong race by St. Charles East IL to bounce back from their off race at NXR. Pretty muddy conditions today as it was raining a fair amount overnight and this morning in Portland.

Ratings estimate: 200.0 = 15:24

(edit: added estimated equivalent 3200m times for better comparison; also, had to adjust the results because original results had the #2-4 finishers in the incorrect order, though the times were correct ... let me know if you see any other errors)

Boys Teams:

1. 128 - NEWBURY PARK - 78:47.3 - California D2 Champion - 193.0
2. 132 - TEMECULA - 79:43.6 - California D1 Champion - 189.4
3. 142 - DRAPER - 79:46.2 - NXR Southwest Champion - 189.2
4. 163 - ST CHARLES - 79:57.6 - NXR Midwest Third Place - 188.5
5. 213 - CROZET - 80:46.8 - NXR Southeast Runner-up - 185.3
6. 226 - RHODE ISLAND - 80:44.2 - NXR Northeast Champion - 185.4
7. 236 - LITTLETON - 80:29.1 - NXR Southwest Third Place - 186.4
8. 247 - DANA POINT - 81:10.7 - California D2 Runner-up - 183.7
9. 253 - WHEATON SOUTH - 81:06.1 - NXR Midwest Champion - 184.0
10. 255 - PURCELLVILLE - 80:58.7 - NXR Southeast Champion - 184.5
11. 274 - MANLIUS - 81:05.5 - NXR New York Champion - 184.1
12. 275 - ELMHURST - 81:33.6 - NXR Midwest Runner-up - 182.2
13. 284 - DENVER - 81:34.7 - NXR Southwest Runner-up - 182.2
14. 285 - CARROLL - 81:27.7 - NXR South Champion - 182.6
15. 316 - THE WOODLANDS - 81:40.9 - NXR South Runner-up - 181.8
16. 327 - LINCROFT - 82:01.4 - NXR Northeast Runner-up - 180.4
17. 386 - PORTLAND - 82:36.7 - NXR Northwest Runner-up - 178.1
18. 407 - BURNT HILLS - 82:49.2 - NXR New York Runner-up - 177.3
19. 415 - MOUNDS VIEW - 82:58.4 - NXR Heartland Champion - 176.7
20. 434 - WEST KENNEWICK - 83:04.3 - NXR Northwest Champion - 176.3
21. 491 - STEVENS POINT - 83:46.7 - NXR Heartland Runner-up - 173.6
22. 581 - EASTWOOD - 84:34.0 - NXR South Third Place - 170.5

Boys Individuals:

1. 210.3 - 14:52.3 - NICO YOUNG - NEWBURY PARK - 8:41
2. 205.8 - 15:06.1 - JOSH METHNER - MIDWEST - 8:49
3. 205.1 - 15:08.3 - CALEB BROWN - MIDWEST - 8:50
4. 204.9 - 15:08.8 - MATT STRANGIO - CALIFORNIA - 8:51
5. 204.9 - 15:09.0 - CONNOR OHLSON - LITTLETON - 8:51
6. 204.7 - 15:09.6 - EJ HOLLAND - NORTHWEST - 8:51
7. 204.5 - 15:10.1 - COLE SPROUT - SOUTHWEST - 8:51
8. 203.9 - 15:12.0 - LIAM MURPHY - NORTHEAST - 8:53
9. 203.4 - 15:13.4 - CARSON BELNAP - SOUTHWEST - 8:53
10. 202.6 - 15:15.9 - WIL SMITH - NORTHWEST - 8:55
11. 202.1 - 15:17.4 - NATHAN GREEN - NORTHWEST - 8:56
12. 202.0 - 15:17.8 - ANTHONY MONTE - SOUTH - 8:56
13. 201.5 - 15:19.5 - TRISTIAN MERCHANT - NORTHWEST - 8:57
14. 201.3 - 15:20.0 - DYLAN SCHUBERT - SOUTHWEST - 8:57
15. 201.3 - 15:20.1 - RYAN SCHOPPE - SOUTH - 8:57
16. 200.9 - 15:21.1 - SAM LAWLER - NEW YORK - 8:58
17. 200.3 - 15:23.1 - JACK SPAMER - MIDWEST - 8:59
18. 198.3 - 15:29.1 - JACE ASCHBRENNER - NEWBURY PARK - 9:03
19. 198.1 - 15:29.8 - BOB LIKING - ST CHARLES - 9:03
20. 197.8 - 15:30.8 - CRUZ CULPEPPER - SOUTHWEST - 9:04
21. 197.1 - 15:32.9 - ANTHONY GROVER - CALIFORNIA - 9:05
22. 197.1 - 15:33.0 - CARLOS SHULTZ - PURCELLVILLE - 9:05
23. 196.9 - 15:33.7 - ISAIAH GALINDO - CALIFORNIA - 9:05
24. 196.5 - 15:34.8 - KEVIN ANTCZAK - NORTHEAST - 9:06
25. 195.9 - 15:36.6 - MICHAEL MIRELES - CALIFORNIA - 9:07
26. 195.8 - 15:37.0 - JUDSON GREER - SOUTH - 9:07
27. 195.8 - 15:37.0 - BILLY HAUENSTEIN - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:07
28. 195.7 - 15:37.3 - GRAHAM BLANKS - SOUTHEAST - 9:07
29. 195.6 - 15:37.7 - JACKSON BRADDOCK - NORTHEAST - 9:08
30. 195.4 - 15:38.2 - SAMUEL OTIS - MANLIUS - 9:08
31. 195.3 - 15:38.4 - NICK SCHELLER - HEARTLAND - 9:08
32. 195.0 - 15:39.3 - SPENCER CARDINAL - THE WOODLANDS - 9:09
33. 194.7 - 15:40.2 - EVAN BISHOP - MIDWEST - 9:09
34. 194.6 - 15:40.7 - LISANDRO BERRY-GAVIRIA - NORTHEAST - 9:09
35. 194.5 - 15:41.0 - JACK MCLOUGHLIN - RHODE ISLAND - 9:10
36. 194.3 - 15:41.6 - ABRAHAM AVILA-MARTINEZ - SOUTH - 9:10
37. 194.2 - 15:41.9 - COLTON KEMPNEY - NEW YORK - 9:10
38. 194.2 - 15:42.0 - EASTON ALLRED - DRAPER - 9:10
39. 193.7 - 15:43.4 - BRENDAN FAVAZZA - MIDWEST - 9:11
40. 193.3 - 15:44.5 - ISAAC TEEPLES - WEST KENNEWICK - 9:12
41. 193.0 - 15:45.5 - JOE HAWKES - CROZET - 9:12
42. 193.0 - 15:45.6 - PEYTON GEEHRER - MANLIUS - 9:12
43. 192.9 - 15:45.8 - CARRICK DENKER - DANA POINT - 9:12
44. 192.8 - 15:46.2 - JACK JENNINGS - NORTHEAST - 9:13
45. 192.6 - 15:46.7 - MARK BOYLE - DRAPER - 9:13
46. 192.3 - 15:47.6 - YASIN SADO - SOUTHWEST - 9:13
47. 191.8 - 15:49.4 - SULLY SHELTON - SOUTHEAST - 9:14
48. 191.4 - 15:50.5 - MICHAEL HANCOCK - MIDWEST - 9:15
49. 191.4 - 15:50.6 - COLIN HILL - ELMHURST - 9:15
50. 191.3 - 15:50.8 - EVAN REYNOLDS - NORTHEAST - 9:15
51. 191.2 - 15:51.0 - JACK ELIASON - CROZET - 9:15
52. 191.1 - 15:51.3 - AIDAN PALMER - NORTHWEST - 9:16
53. 190.9 - 15:51.9 - COLIN SAHLMAN - NEWBURY PARK - 9:16
54. 190.9 - 15:52.0 - GABE ABBES - TEMECULA - 9:16
55. 190.9 - 15:52.0 - JACOB WHITE - LITTLETON - 9:16
56. 190.8 - 15:52.2 - RYAN ALLISON - BURNT HILLS - 9:16
57. 190.3 - 15:53.8 - MICAH WILSON - ST CHARLES - 9:17
58. 190.1 - 15:54.4 - ETHAN HAMMER - THE WOODLANDS - 9:17
59. 190.0 - 15:54.8 - ARIC REZA - TEMECULA - 9:18
60. 189.8 - 15:55.3 - MAX DIMUCCIO - RHODE ISLAND - 9:18
61. 189.7 - 15:55.6 - TIM MCELANEY - CARROLL - 9:18
62. 189.6 - 15:56.0 - JOHN WORTHY GARCIA - TEMECULA - 9:18
63. 188.9 - 15:58.3 - LEANDRO CANDRAY - TEMECULA - 9:20
64. 188.6 - 15:59.0 - TROY HILL - LINCROFT - 9:20
65. 188.6 - 15:59.1 - WILL CHAFFIN - NORTHEAST - 9:20
66. 188.5 - 15:59.4 - MHALICKI BRONSON - MIDWEST - 9:20
67. 188.4 - 15:59.6 - KELLEN HASLE - PURCELLVILLE - 9:20
68. 188.3 - 15:59.9 - HENRY FARRINGTON - NORTHEAST - 9:21
69. 188.1 - 16:00.6 - SETH ROUSE - DENVER - 9:21
70. 187.9 - 16:01.3 - ALEX HARBERTSON - DRAPER - 9:21
71. 187.7 - 16:01.9 - NATHANIEL LANNEN - CARROLL - 9:22
72. 187.5 - 16:02.5 - MATEO JOSEPH - TEMECULA - 9:22
73. 187.3 - 16:03.1 - GEOFF HOWLES - MANLIUS - 9:22
74. 187.3 - 16:03.2 - AIDAN KING - ST CHARLES - 9:23
75. 187.2 - 16:03.3 - JUSTIN WILSON - SOUTHEAST - 9:23
76. 187.0 - 16:04.1 - KEVIN CARLSON - PURCELLVILLE - 9:23
77. 186.9 - 16:04.2 - CHASE LEACH - RHODE ISLAND - 9:23
78. 186.8 - 16:04.6 - JOSHUA STONE - NEW YORK - 9:23
79. 186.7 - 16:04.9 - AJ ROWLAND - DRAPER - 9:24
80. 186.6 - 16:05.3 - GITCH HAYES - NEW YORK - 9:24
81. 185.9 - 16:07.4 - BRANDON PIZANO - DANA POINT - 9:25
82. 185.7 - 16:08.1 - ANTONIO FLORCRUZ - CARROLL - 9:25
83. 185.5 - 16:08.8 - IAN HARRISON - SOUTHEAST - 9:26
84. 185.3 - 16:09.3 - STUART TERRILL - CROZET - 9:26
85. 185.2 - 16:09.5 - DAVID ZELLER - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:26
86. 185.1 - 16:09.8 - RYAN KINNANE - HEARTLAND - 9:26
87. 185.1 - 16:09.9 - OLIVER PALEEN - HEARTLAND - 9:26
88. 184.9 - 16:10.5 - SHAW POWELL - LINCROFT - 9:27
89. 184.8 - 16:10.9 - HARRISON WITT - DENVER - 9:27
90. 184.6 - 16:11.3 - CALEB JOHNSON - DRAPER - 9:27
91. 184.0 - 16:13.2 - JAI DAWSON - DANA POINT - 9:28
92. 183.8 - 16:13.8 - DANIEL KLYSH - ELMHURST - 9:29
93. 183.6 - 16:14.5 - LUKE SCHILDMEYER - ST CHARLES - 9:29
94. 183.5 - 16:14.7 - JACOB KLUCKHOHN - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:29
95. 183.1 - 16:16.2 - NICK GOLDSTEIN - NEWBURY PARK - 9:30
96. 183.0 - 16:16.3 - ZACK LOOMIS - ST CHARLES - 9:30
97. 183.0 - 16:16.4 - RYAN SCHUMACHER - PORTLAND - 9:30
98. 182.9 - 16:16.7 - PETER FOGARTY - NEW YORK - 9:30
99. 182.8 - 16:17.0 - ALEC NELSON - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:31
100. 182.5 - 16:17.8 - DANIEL APPLEFORD - NEWBURY PARK - 9:31
101. 182.4 - 16:18.3 - BEN MORRIN - LITTLETON - 9:31
102. 182.2 - 16:18.8 - JACK BENNETT - PORTLAND - 9:32
103. 182.1 - 16:19.0 - DAVIS HELMERICH - DENVER - 9:32
104. 181.9 - 16:19.6 - SEAN STUCK - SOUTHEAST - 9:32
105. 181.7 - 16:20.4 - ALEX MAXWELL - RHODE ISLAND - 9:33
106. 181.3 - 16:21.5 - FINN SOKOLOWSKI - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:33
107. 180.8 - 16:23.0 - JAKE BOURGET - STEVENS POINT - 9:34
108. 180.6 - 16:23.6 - JARED PEASLEE - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:34
109. 180.6 - 16:23.7 - LEO YOUNG - NEWBURY PARK - 9:35
110. 180.5 - 16:24.2 - BEN DASTRUP - DRAPER - 9:35
111. 180.0 - 16:25.5 - SHUAYB HUSSEIN - HEARTLAND - 9:36
112. 179.7 - 16:26.5 - MAX MURPHY - HEARTLAND - 9:36
113. 179.6 - 16:26.7 - WILL BONNER - CROZET - 9:36
114. 179.5 - 16:27.2 - DECLAN O'SCANNLAIN - PORTLAND - 9:37
115. 179.4 - 16:27.3 - KYLE BOE - DENVER - 9:37
116. 179.4 - 16:27.3 - MICKEY VREELAND - ELMHURST - 9:37
117. 179.0 - 16:28.6 - CHRISTOPHER MIDDLETON-PEARSON - CALIFORNIA - 9:37
118. 178.9 - 16:29.1 - MICHAEL MORIARTY - ELMHURST - 9:38
119. 178.5 - 16:30.1 - OMAR GARCIA LOPEZ - DANA POINT - 9:38
120. 178.4 - 16:30.6 - BEN SHEARER - SOUTH - 9:39
121. 178.3 - 16:30.7 - ELLIOTT MCARTHUR - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:39
122. 178.2 - 16:31.1 - CHRIS DESOUSA - LINCROFT - 9:39
123. 178.2 - 16:31.2 - MATT SMITH - PURCELLVILLE - 9:39
124. 177.7 - 16:32.8 - BRIAN PRATT - ELMHURST - 9:40
125. 177.5 - 16:33.2 - COLE SAWIRES YAGER - TEMECULA - 9:40
126. 177.2 - 16:34.2 - RYAN BROADHEAD - DANA POINT - 9:41
127. 177.2 - 16:34.3 - JOSEPH TAYLOR - CROZET - 9:41
128. 177.1 - 16:34.5 - ETHAN STRAUB - LITTLETON - 9:41
129. 177.0 - 16:34.9 - BEN SANTOS - LINCROFT - 9:41
130. 176.9 - 16:35.3 - BEN PIEGAT - LITTLETON - 9:41
131. 176.8 - 16:35.6 - WILL MARCHANT - BURNT HILLS - 9:41
132. 176.6 - 16:36.0 - THOMAS KALLEN - CROZET - 9:42
133. 176.3 - 16:36.9 - JACK O'SULLIVAN - DENVER - 9:42
134. 176.3 - 16:37.1 - AARON SOLTMANN - THE WOODLANDS - 9:42
135. 176.2 - 16:37.2 - MICHAEL MCCABE - CARROLL - 9:42
136. 176.1 - 16:37.5 - WILL YASDICK - ELMHURST - 9:43
137. 175.8 - 16:38.5 - ARIK MANWARING - DRAPER - 9:43
138. 175.6 - 16:39.1 - GRAYSON WILCOTT - WEST KENNEWICK - 9:44
139. 175.5 - 16:39.6 - CHRIS VERDUGO - TEMECULA - 9:44
140. 175.2 - 16:40.4 - CONNOR MURPHY - ST CHARLES - 9:44
141. 175.1 - 16:40.6 - MATTHEW ROUNDS - BURNT HILLS - 9:44
142. 174.9 - 16:41.3 - ETHAN SENG - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:45
143. 174.4 - 16:42.7 - KEVIN BOARD - BURNT HILLS - 9:46
144. 174.3 - 16:43.2 - STANFORD SMITH - WEST KENNEWICK - 9:46
145. 174.3 - 16:43.3 - TYLER CHAMBERS - RHODE ISLAND - 9:46
146. 174.2 - 16:43.5 - TRISTAN SERNAU - STEVENS POINT - 9:46
147. 174.1 - 16:43.7 - ADAM THIBODEAU - RHODE ISLAND - 9:46
148. 174.0 - 16:44.2 - JAKE LEPAK - STEVENS POINT - 9:46
149. 173.8 - 16:44.8 - MATIAS MONONEN - THE WOODLANDS - 9:47
150. 173.7 - 16:44.9 - SOLOMON CHAVEZ - CARROLL - 9:47
151. 173.6 - 16:45.2 - SAM CURRAN - PORTLAND - 9:47
152. 173.6 - 16:45.3 - KYLE EASTON - THE WOODLANDS - 9:47
153. 173.4 - 16:45.9 - JACK MORAN - LINCROFT - 9:47
154. 173.3 - 16:46.1 - MICHAEL ATKINS - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:48
155. 173.2 - 16:46.4 - JAMES PEDEN - MANLIUS - 9:48
156. 173.2 - 16:46.6 - ANDREW LARSON - WEST KENNEWICK - 9:48
157. 172.9 - 16:47.5 - ELIAS PEREZ - EASTWOOD - 9:48
158. 172.4 - 16:49.1 - JOE GARDNER - CARROLL - 9:49
159. 172.4 - 16:49.1 - JOHN SCHULER - PORTLAND - 9:49
160. 171.8 - 16:50.8 - JEREMIAH MUSSMON - PURCELLVILLE - 9:50
161. 171.6 - 16:51.4 - ZACH SCHARBARTH - STEVENS POINT - 9:51
162. 171.5 - 16:51.8 - WILL SACAY - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:51
163. 171.4 - 16:52.2 - BRIAN SEWELL - THE WOODLANDS - 9:51
164. 171.4 - 16:52.2 - DANIEL PATRICK - MANLIUS - 9:51
165. 171.2 - 16:52.7 - NATHAN HERNANDEZ - EASTWOOD - 9:51
166. 170.8 - 16:54.0 - SERGIO CUARTAS - EASTWOOD - 9:52
167. 170.4 - 16:55.1 - JONAS LARSON - PORTLAND - 9:53
168. 169.7 - 16:57.4 - MATT MILLER - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:54
169. 169.6 - 16:57.5 - JUAN OLMOS - EASTWOOD - 9:54
170. 169.5 - 16:57.8 - NICHOLAS SULLIVAN - LINCROFT - 9:54
171. 169.4 - 16:58.1 - DAVID METACARPA - BURNT HILLS - 9:55
172. 169.4 - 16:58.3 - MATEO BARRETO - PURCELLVILLE - 9:55
173. 168.7 - 17:00.3 - JAYDEN NATS - DENVER - 9:56
174. 168.1 - 17:02.3 - ANDREWS GURROLA - EASTWOOD - 9:57
175. 167.3 - 17:04.6 - CHRISTIAN KIZEWSKI-MANTHEY - STEVENS POINT - 9:58
176. 167.2 - 17:04.9 - JOSEPH MOERSCH - DANA POINT - 9:59
177. 166.8 - 17:06.4 - JOSH BOURGET - STEVENS POINT - 9:59
178. 166.5 - 17:07.3 - TIM CAHILL - LINCROFT - 10:00
179. 166.2 - 17:08.0 - ETHAN KERN - ELMHURST - 10:00
180. 166.1 - 17:08.3 - JACK ALTIMONDA - MANLIUS - 10:01
181. 165.8 - 17:09.2 - JAMES JACOBS - STEVENS POINT - 10:01
182. 165.8 - 17:09.3 - VICTOR PARRA - EASTWOOD - 10:01
183. 165.7 - 17:09.5 - JOHNNY OLENEK - ST CHARLES - 10:01
184. 165.6 - 17:09.9 - TINO PRECIADO - MOUNDS VIEW - 10:02
185. 165.3 - 17:10.9 - ANDREW HOLLADAY - WEST KENNEWICK - 10:02
186. 165.2 - 17:11.1 - JACK CASEY - RHODE ISLAND - 10:02
187. 165.2 - 17:11.2 - AIDAN ALEXANDER - PORTLAND - 10:02
188. 164.9 - 17:12.2 - BEN AMUNDSON - THE WOODLANDS - 10:03
189. 164.8 - 17:12.5 - BLAKE OHLSON - LITTLETON - 10:03
190. 164.7 - 17:12.7 - VICTOR ANCHONDO - EASTWOOD - 10:03
191. 163.8 - 17:15.5 - NICK GROCK - BURNT HILLS - 10:05
192. 163.3 - 17:17.0 - OWEN SHIFFLETT - CROZET - 10:06
193. 162.7 - 17:19.0 - BRETT GILLEY - CARROLL - 10:07
194. 162.0 - 17:21.1 - CARSON REWISKI - WHEATON SOUTH - 10:08
195. 161.3 - 17:23.1 - WYATT OGLESBY - LITTLETON - 10:09
196. 161.2 - 17:23.5 - JAX WEIDE - WEST KENNEWICK - 10:09
197. 160.6 - 17:25.2 - NATE APOSTOL - MOUNDS VIEW - 10:10
198. 160.2 - 17:26.6 - TAYLOR NEY - PURCELLVILLE - 10:11
199. 159.2 - 17:29.6 - GIANNI VIOLA-WILHELMI - DANA POINT - 10:13
200. 157.1 - 17:36.2 - COLIN MOONEY - DENVER - 10:17
201. 157.0 - 17:36.5 - TOM MCDONNELL - NEWBURY PARK - 10:17
202. 154.8 - 17:43.2 - DANTE UBRIACO - BURNT HILLS - 10:21
203. 150.0 - 17:57.9 - BEN PERRY - MANLIUS - 10:30

Fun with numbers - a quick sanity check on NXR Ratings **REVISED**

I thought it might be interesting to post this little tidbit about how accurate my ratings my be this year.

Every year after NXN, I run an analysis to see how the various NXR courses compare based on times ran at NXN (including removing outliers, so this isn't influenced by how well specific individuals ran but rather the groups of individuals ran after discounting outlier performances). This accomplishes two goals: identifying what regions I might have over/undervalued going into NXN, and estimating just how fast the course at NXN should be rated.

The results from last year's NXR and NXN analysis gave the following results:

200.0 mark for NXN Nationals Girls race should be about 15:02
200.0 mark for NXN Nationals Boys race should be about 15:11

(Side note: I feel good about those ratings, I think they are very fitting. For anyone reading these that want to compare to Meylan's speed ratings: they are derived differently, and it's not uncommon that I'm a little more generous in my ratings than Meylan is. That isn't always true, and for many meets we are close, but for whatever reason there are some circumstances where my ratings are consistently higher than his -- I have my theories as to why that difference exists and is as notable as it exists, but it would only be guesses and not worth spending time talking about ... so just realize that Meylan's speed ratings and my own form of ratings, beyond the difference of how they are calculated e.g. Meylan's +/- system vs. my multiplier system, are not identical and can't really be compared directly)

200.0 mark for each regional race:

14:43 NXR Southwest
14:44 California State
14:45 NXR Heartland
14:53 NXR Southeast
14:53 NXR Midwest
15:12 NXR Northwest
15:20 NXR South
15:32 NXR Northeast/New York

Taking those differences in the course, I thought it would be interesting to see how the differences might look BEYOND my usual methods, just as a check to see if I'm significantly over/under estimating any regional race this year.

Milesplit has a pretty neat tool that allows you to compare how the same races compare from year to year. Using that tool, and limiting my scope to the runners that ran at both races and taking the average time, average of the middle 80% of times, average difference for specific runners, and average difference of the middle 80% for specific runners (those are the measurements that seemed most consistent from region to region), I ran some numbers on how much faster/slower the courses seemed to run this year vs. last (if we assume that every region progresses year-to-year at roughly the same rate).

[EDIT - I found the reason why the Northwest runners improved by comparably less ... for some reason, Milesplit didn't bother to log the boys races in 2018! Serves me right for not double-checking Milesplit's data I guess ... as a result, I'll be removing the Northwest from this comparison, and revised the rest of the regions to look at data from the boys races only only ... which didn't change the results too much as would be expected unless a region had significantly more girls returning than boys, but aside from New York things did become slightly more in-line with what I was seeing while rating the different regional races]

For all of those measurements, the median differences throughout the regions were around 35 seconds improvement from last year to this year. I considered that the standard, and any region that improved by less than 35 seconds is an estimate that the course ran that much SLOWER (e.g., the same Midwest athletes average times were 22.9 seconds faster in 2019, so that would suggest the course ran 12.1 seconds slower this year compared to last: 35.0 - 22.9 = 12.1).

This isn't a perfect analysis for several reasons (it relies on the accuracy of milesplit's compiled data which I'm not double checking, different training programs will in general progress at different rates, environmental situation may influence how much a these runners progress from year to year e.g. less likely to train year-round in hot/cold regions or more likely to progress more significantly if living and training at altitude, it goes beyond the championship races for both years which is the focus of the ratings and the racing situation can influence times between different races, etc. etc.), which is why I'm not changing my regional ratings due to the findings, but it provides an idea of if I'm maybe on the right track.

The results, region-by-region:

NXR Heartland was rated at 14:45 last year in the final review. The analysis (702 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 14:41-14:46. I rated it a 14:46, so that's a pretty good fit!

NXR Midwest was rated at 14:53 last year in the final review. The analysis (676 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 15:02-15:05. I rated it at 14:58, so maybe a slight underrating of the region, but 4-7 seconds is within the margin of error IMO especially if it is on that lower end.

NXR Southwest was rated 14:43 last year in the final review. The analysis (683 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 14:55-14:59. I rated it at 14:50, so this could be a notable underrating by 5-9 seconds!

NXR South was rated at 15:20 last year in the final review. The analysis (513 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 15:14-15:15. I rated it at 15:14, so that's a pretty good fit!

NXR Southeast was rated at 14:53 last year in the final review. The analysis (252 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 14:49-14:50. I rated it at 14:53, so that's a pretty good fit!

California State was rated at 14:44 last year in the final review. The analysis (319 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 14:43-14:44. I rated it at 14:40, so that's a very good fit!

I don't rate the Northeast and New York races separately, but rather combine them, UNLESS there is a situation where the course conditions change notably between the races (e.g., a really muddy course that got worse as the day wore on). Unfortunately, Milesplit's tool looks at NXR-NE and NXR-NY separately, but these stay mostly in the same ballpark so it's not too big of a deal.

NXR Northeast was rated at 15:32 last year in the final review. The analysis (218 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 15:33-15:34. For NXR New York, the analysis (148 boys) shows anywhere from 15:27-15:30. Combined, that suggests anywhere from 15:27-15:34 but probably closer to 15:30-15:33. I rated it at 15:37, so that's a pretty decent fit but maybe slightly overestimating by as 5 seconds or so.

The biggest difference by far, though, was the NXR Northwest analysis.

We will find out on Saturday how much I over/under estimated the regional races. If the Southwest teams and individuals are notably more dominant than I already have them and Northeast/New York less competitive, I guess I need to be more aggressive with my year-to-year adjustments and that the regions are even less balanced that I thought!

BTW, here's a summary table of the analysis for those that might want to dig a little deeper.

2018 Rating - Region - Avg. Time - Middle 80% Time - Avg. Difference - Middle 80% Difference - Region - Averaged from Analysis - 2019 Rating

14:45 - HL - 14:46 - 14:42 - 14:46 - 14:41 - HL - 14:44 - 14:46
14:53 - MW - 15:05 - 15:03 - 15:05 - 15:02 - MW - 15:04 - 14:58
14:43 - SW - 14:59 - 14:55 - 14:59 - 14:55 - SW - 14:57 - 14:50
15:20 - SO - 15:15 - 15:14 - 15:15 - 15:14 - SO - 15:14 - 15:14
14:53 - SE - 14:50 - 14:50 - 14:50 - 14:49 - SE - 14:50 - 14:53
15:32 - NE - 15:34 - 15:34 - 15:34 - 15:33 - NE - 15:34 - 15:37
15:32 - NY - 15:27 - 15:29 - 15:27 - 15:30 - NY - 15:28 - 15:37
14:44 - CA - 14:43 - 14:43 - 14:43 - 14:44 - CA - 14:43 - 14:40

Since I consider 5-10 seconds to be a reasonable margin of error for comparing across different regions and different races (human performance is variable, and a runner being 5-10 seconds off wouldn't be considered an outlier in a statistical comparison), all of the regions would be within at least the larger side of that margin. The Southwest (+7), Midwest (+6) and New York (-9) are beyond 5 seconds but all less than 10, meaning I might be underrating the Southwest and Midwest while overrating New York -- but since New York and the Northeast run on the same course and the Northeast fits, I don't think the idea that New York is potentially being slightly overrated will end up playing out. The other 5 regions (sans Northwest, which Milesplit doesn't have the data for) are within 0-3 seconds of how I had them rated, which is a very good fit.


Post-NXN Nationals EDIT: After the conclusion of the national race, the post-race analysis had these as the suggested regional ratings:

(Boys Nationals = 15:24, Girls Nationals = 15:46)

NXR Heartland: 14:46 vs. the 14:46 I had them at, and 14:44 from the analysis above
NXR Midwest: 15:04 vs. the 14:58 I had them at, and 15:04 from the analysis above
NXR Northwest: 15:10 vs. the 15:10 I had them at (and didn't include above because Milesplit didn't have the right data to use)
NXR Southwest: 14:52 vs. the 14:50 I had them at, and 14:57 from the analysis above
NXR South: 15:16 vs. the 15:14 I had them at, and 15:14 from the analysis above
NXR Southeast: 14:49 vs. the 14:53 I had them at, and 14:50 from the analysis above
NXR Northeast/New York: 15:39 vs. the 15:37 I had them at, and 15:32ish from the analysis above
California State: 14:46 vs. the 14:40 I had them at, and 14:43 from the analysis above

In review, I was slightly underrating the Midwest and California (though not by a large margin, only 6 seconds), to an even lesser degree I slightly overrated Southeast (4 seconds), and every other region was within 2 seconds.